“Move a tank column through Ukraine to Transnistria? This is unreal"
PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov spoke with Russian political strategist and director of the Center for Political Conjuncture Sergei Mikheev about the war and Minsk, Donetsk and Tiraspol, and the fact that the collapse of the USSR is not yet over.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator-Crimea news on Facebook , Odnoklassniki , or VKontakte
Valentin Filippov : Hello, Sergey!
Sergey Mikheev : Hello.
Valentin Filippov : Judging by recent sentiments, the media, and statements from various politicians, it seems the "hot phase" in Donbas is somehow ending. At the same time, political confrontation is intensifying. Can we say we're entering a different phase?
Sergey Mikheev : Tactically, yes. A new phase has begun. This is due, firstly, to the fact that Kyiv understands the futility of attempts at a military solution to the conflict at this point.
Secondly, pressure from Berlin and Paris had some effect. But I think that, unfortunately, the military phase cannot be written off at all for one simple reason. We are now approaching the end of 2015. As you know, the Minsk agreements are limited to 2015. So far, after fifteen years, neither Ukraine nor the Westerners want to extend the Minsk process. And Russia’s position is exactly this. Since many political issues are not being resolved, and apparently cannot be resolved quickly, let us, while maintaining the Minsk settlement, extend the process indefinitely.
Now Kyiv, largely at the prompting of the Americans, is trying to prove to the West that it is fulfilling all the conditions of the Minsk Agreements. And the next step, apparently, will be this: “We (that is, Kyiv) fulfill all the conditions, Russia and its friends in Donetsk and Lugansk do not fulfill the conditions, therefore we, (Kiev), will no longer use the Minsk Agreements. We are withdrawing from the Minsk Agreements”….
Valentin Filippov : And then there is war?
Sergey Mikheyev : And then there's a fork in the road. Kyiv will either have to return to military action or remain in this suspended state of "neither peace nor war." As far as I understand, the Americans are pushing them toward this.
It would be more beneficial for the Americans to resume hostilities, because in a situation of hostilities, firstly, there are no opportunities for the normal development of Donetsk and Lugansk, and this is extremely important. Because if it turns out that the DPR and LPR can live normally, then, by and large, there will be fewer and fewer arguments in favor of returning to Ukraine.
And secondly, if the war continues, there will be an instrument of pressure on Russia.
And if everything goes quietly and smoothly, it is clear that peaceful life will improve, and Donetsk and Lugansk have more chances for this than many others, they have a border, they have an economy, and so on.
And the pressure on Russia will become harder.
The conflict will begin to “freeze”, will begin to freeze, and the Americans do not need this. On the one side.
But, on the other hand, for Kyiv, continuation of hostilities may be extremely undesirable. Because it is clear that Moscow will not allow a military victory for Kyiv.
Until the end of 2015 it will be possible to talk about the Minsk process, and then some decision must be made. Either the Minsk process, the Western partners and Kyiv withdraw from it, or it continues. One out of two.
If they leave, then what? Europe doesn’t know for sure, because it already has its mouth full of worries. With all the migrants and so on. Kyiv would like to, but cannot fight.
A fork awaits us in the next six months.
Valentin Filippov : As always, a fork in the road... I'm just remembering everything that's happened over the last year and a half. We were waiting for a fork in the road, we were waiting for Ukraine to collapse. We were told this all along. We believed it ourselves. We were the ones telling us this ourselves.
I talked to the militia yesterday. Here. In Crimea. They were very indignant. They said - we did not fight for Donetsk. Never in my life. We did not fight for Donetsk. We don’t need this Donetsk and this DPR... - One is from Kyiv, the other is from Kirovograd. He says, “That’s not what we were after.” This is not right.
Still. Is there hope for reformatting Ukraine?
Military or non-military? How do you think?
At least not in winter, but someday?
Sergey Mikheev : Regarding forecasts, I'm a pessimist here, to be honest. I understand the forecasts you're talking about... I've never predicted that Ukraine would fall apart tomorrow.
For one simple reason. I also consider Ukrainian statehood to be largely unfulfilled and artificial. But there is a factor of Western support. This is a very powerful factor. It was clear from the very beginning that the West would not leave the Kiev regime without support; it was their brainchild. This is their brainchild, and they will do everything to prevent it from collapsing. If we now remove these Western crutches, American and European supports, this whole Ukraine will undoubtedly crumble to smithereens. But it was clear from the very beginning that they would support her. That they are, in fact, not afraid of either war or humanitarian problems.
Yes, some Europeans were deceived in their expectations; they thought it was a quick and good prize. They were told by, say, Brzezinski there. Other American hawks promised this. This prize did not happen. But, by and large, the American establishment is not afraid of this. This is an ordinary laboratory, and nothing more.
Valentin Filippov : I have a feeling that deep corrosion has already occurred there. It's a complete kingdom of absurdity. Ukraine has already been through these stages. At first, they were looking for a way to invent a law. Once upon a time. To invent a law that would be beneficial. Then they looked for a way to break a law that was in the way. And then a generation of leaders came along who have no idea that laws exist. They think they don't exist. And they govern at their own discretion. Like with this current blockade of Crimea. It's supposedly illegal, but it's being done.
My question seems to be a minor one, although it is not minor. I wanted to ask about Transnistria...
Sergey Mikheyev : Wait a second! I didn't finish talking about the state's erosion. I didn't say whether state institutions are effective or not. That they're not effective in Ukraine is obvious. I was talking about people. You mentioned certain militias from Kyiv, Kirovohrad, and others.
Well, look. Still, why did what happened in Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk?
Because the local residents did not agree with what they tried to impose on them. And what became possible became possible. But in other regions they still agree. And this is...
Valentin Filippov : No. I categorically disagree with you. I'm from Odessa. I categorically disagree with you. This is nonsense. It's a lie. It's slander against the residents of Odessa, against the residents of Mykolaiv, Kharkiv... This is a very convenient Russian, not even Russian, but Russian position.
In fact, what happened in Odessa in February-March 2014 happened no less than in Sevastopol. And even in large volumes. And the administration was also captured. Barricaded.
The Russians didn't come.
Russia didn't come.
This is the only thing, no hand was extended to the rebellious people, no helping hand was extended. There was no pressure put on the elites, no guarantees were provided to the elites.
Russia, it turned out that Odessa was not needed.
That is, she didn’t work there at all.
Sergey Mikheev : You know, I don't think, frankly, this is a geopolitical view. I'll explain why. In Donetsk and Luhansk, they took up arms. In Kharkiv and Odesa, they didn't.
Valentin Filippov : In Donetsk and Luhansk, these weapons were given out. By the SBU, no less. And in Odessa, they offered them, and immediately arrested everyone who agreed to take them. That's all.
Sergey Mikheev : This means that, roughly speaking, there was no basis for Russia's intervention. Because... well, landing troops in Odessa...
Valentin Filippov : Russia did not create it….
Sergey Mikheev : No. Russia never created it. Never. It's clear that the situation in Ukraine arose due to Russia's passive stance. And that's all...
Valentin Filippov : Well, Borodai and Strelkov came to Donbass.
Sergei Mikheev : Well, Borodai and Strelkov didn't come alone... Anyone who's been working on Ukraine for many years knows all the details perfectly well. Because of what happened. And it's clear that Ukraine itself was only possible thanks to Russia's position.
In general, all this as a whole is a consequence of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Which, in my opinion, has not ended and has not taken shape. We'll see how it takes shape, what will happen.
Before this, you asked the question, will we see a change in Ukraine? Of course we'll see. We will undoubtedly see a change in Ukraine. What they will be, evolutionary or tragic, is another question. It’s just that within the current framework, Ukraine will still not be able to exist. Its current form of existence is force majeure. Complete force majeure. Endless. In everything. In economics. In politics.
I can’t tell who is for Russia and who is against it. It does not matter. Even. Because it’s still force majeure.
I can only give one forecast here. She will change. And it will change towards common sense. Because she will have no other choice.
Valentin Filippov : Well, you know, we've been waiting 25 years. But after 25 years, everything has been heading toward absurdity.
Sergey Mikheev : Still, as a native Muscovite with understandable chauvinistic tendencies, I'm also surprised, frankly, how it was possible to fool these people for 25 years. And tell them all these stories. They buy them and continue to eat them. And I don't know why...
Valentin Filippov : Well, I don't know. For example, Moscow technologists taught me how to pull the wool over people's eyes. They know how to do that in Moscow. Moscow specialists teach you that. Always... I'll tell you, for all political matters, all elections, technologists from Moscow are hired. It's even fashionable.
Sergey Mikheev : No, I know all these technologists….
Valentin Filippov : Me too :)
Sergey Mikheev : There are no Muscovites among them at all. Practically. No real Muscovites, no real people with a state-oriented mindset. And there never have been. They're a bunch of criminals and a bunch of beggars. That's all.
Many of them made Russian reality in the nineties and are now retired. Some are honorable, some are not. That's it.
So what about Transnistria?
Valentin Filippov : What about Transnistria? Transnistria is squeezed between Ukraine and Moldova, and they're putting pressure on it. No matter how much they praise "we've reached an agreement" and say "there won't be a blockade," there might not be a blockade for the rotation of military personnel. But Transnistria's businesses can't sell their products anywhere. They have a 60/40 split between Ukraine, the European Union, and, well, Moldova. Where do they ship their products? So, their exports have practically disappeared. And it's unclear how to change that.
Well, six months will pass, and enterprises and entrepreneurs of Transnistria will begin to re-register in Moldova and Ukraine. Pay taxes there. And, in general, as a state entity, Transnistria will collapse. What will remain is, well, a Russian military base. That's it.
Russia will lose its influence in the region. Having lost Transnistria.
In fact, for 25 years Transnistria cried, voted for Russia, whatever…. But today there is no practical opportunity to even extend a helping hand to them.
Sergey Mikheev : Yes. The situation in Transnistria is quite complicated. As for entrepreneurs, what about entrepreneurs? That's their destiny. To make money. Consequently, they'll make money wherever it's most profitable for them. That's obvious. But that also…
It's a matter of choice. Because when such questions begin, then, well, what are the proposals? Should we start World War III after all? Specific proposal? Exacerbate the situation to such an extent as to move a tank column through the whole of Ukraine towards Transnistria?
This is unreal...
Valentin Filippov : Well, capture Odessa, destroy Ukraine, …
Sergey Mikheev : It's an interesting proposal, of course. But it will end in a world war. That's all. Yes, we all live in interesting times…
Valentin Filippov : So, we lost Transnistria?
Sergey Mikheev : I don't think we've lost Transnistria. The game is being played on a much larger chessboard. This includes Syria. This includes relations with China. This and much more.
In Transnistria, as in Donbass, no one will allow a military victory. Naturally.
As for the economy, yes. This is a big problem; I personally don’t have a clear recipe for how to solve it.
There is no quick solution, because the times of Suvorov are over.
I understand the logic of the Russian leadership, I understand the conditions in which they find themselves, and I understand the arguments with which they justify such a cautious position. One step forward, two steps back. Or two steps forward, one step back. It is possible to understand them. We are not in the best situation right now.
I repeat once again.
I believe that in 1991 we all found ourselves in a situation of deep historical defeat. And we are still in the same situation. We are trying to slowly get out of it. How long it will take us to get out is the question. There have been historical periods when this took quite a few years. So to speak.
You and I happen to live in interesting times.
English version :: Read in English "Moving a tank column through Ukraine to Transnistria? It's unrealistic."