There will be no visa-free travel. Poroshenko will leave in 2017
There will be no visa-free regime. Petro Poroshenko will leave in 2017. At this moment, the regions of the South-East have a new chance to escape the control of Kyiv. The business elites of these regions are to blame for the fact that the entire historical Novorossiya did not follow Crimea back in 2014. In the future, Ukraine will face division.
Ruslan Ostashko , editor-in-chief of the PolitRussia news portal, discussed the metamorphoses and peculiarities of political and social processes in the territory of the former Ukraine . PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov , admiring his T-shirt with a double-headed eagle, argued and agreed with him.
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Valentin Filippov : Ruslan, hello.
Ruslan Ostashko : Yes, hello.
Valentin Filippov : I'm very concerned about visa-free travel for Ukraine. Why can't it be granted already? It's heartbreaking. People have literally done everything they can. They've sunk to the lowest instincts, to a primitive state. They've fulfilled 144 demands. A former fellow countryman of mine even compared himself to an animal. He said:
– You are responsible for those you have tamed, where is the visa-free regime?
Why not give them this visa-free regime already? Well, it's difficult, isn't it? In general, it doesn’t mean anything...
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, what, it doesn't mean anything? Everyone will flee Ukraine immediately. Europe understands it can't handle such a flood of refugees.
Poroshenko reported that they seemed to have reached an agreement that they would provide visa-free entry. But there is a condition “under an asterisk”, which is usually written so that no one reads it - in small print.
It seems that a document has been adopted that allows for visa-free travel, but in order to grant it, Ukraine needs to sign a document that will allow this visa-free regime to be automatically canceled if certain conditions are violated. But they didn't. And they won't. They seemed to give it, but they didn’t.
Why didn’t they give it, because they were refugees. Because Europe cannot cope objectively. This is a serious big refugee crisis. And they understand perfectly well that now several million Ukrainians will flock to them. Maybe not on work or tourist visas, but everyone understands that the main thing for them is to get there.
But Ukraine wanted to get more than just visa-free travel. Ukraine wanted to obtain the status of a European country. For many Ukrainians, EU membership is this cherished visa-free regime. And if they move between Ukraine and European countries, and at the same time they do not need to submit documents to any embassy or receive this visa, then they think that they are already full members of the EU.
But life is a little more complicated.
Visa-free, if there is one, it will be a tourist one for 90 days, but still, the phrase itself…. This is where the power of the brand lies. Visa-free travel is a brand.
Valentin Filippov : They still don’t give it to me, the bastards… they’re making fun of me J.
Ruslan Ostashko : They can't grant visa-free travel. They have elections coming up.
Valentin Filippov : Could elections in Europe end badly? They have well-established democracies.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, everyone thought America was a well-established democracy. Few even thought Brexit was possible.
In France the president will definitely change, but in Germany will Angela Merkel become chancellor for the fourth time? Most likely it will, probably, but after Trump’s victory, I won’t be surprised if she loses.
Valentin Filippov : The thing is, everything around us is so unstable. Only Ukraine is stable in this situation. No matter how many elections you hold, it will be the same.
Ruslan Ostashko : No, no. I think sooner or later we'll wake up. And things will change. A country can't remain stuck in a rock bottom forever.
Valentin Filippov : For now, it’s the Russians who are suffering there.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, yes. The Russians who are suffering are those who live in Ukraine, and who, among other things, are themselves to blame for much of what's happening there now. Because they lacked the strength and the resources at the time, they trusted certain politicians. And they couldn't, yes…
Valentin Filippov : No. You know, the Kremlin believed these politicians, too.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, did you believe it?
Valentin Filippov : They said the parties were sister parties. United Russia and the Party of Regions. They held joint congresses. Viktor Yanukovych was a guest of honor at United Russia congresses…
Ruslan Ostashko : In Russia, our government works with the government elected by the people. It doesn't matter which country—Ukraine, etc.
Many believe that we had too little influence on the Ukrainian voter in order to maintain friendship... Perhaps this is true. This is true. But we have what we have. But one cannot completely assume that the Ukrainian people are so weak-willed.
For example, in Crimea people decided to hold a referendum. And there blood was shed. And they made this decision. Not simple. Complex. And many politicians, when I talked to some of the Crimean politicians, did not understand that they would not be abandoned. They understood that they were taking a risk by making such a decision. And if tomorrow the situation changes and Ukrainian troops enter, they will be arrested and will spend many, many years in prison. They understood this perfectly.
And there was still a possibility that Russia would not help. Well, theoretical.
People dared to do this. But the most important thing is the population. I myself am from Crimea. And I understand perfectly well how people reacted to all this. In Sevastopol, at first Nakhimov Square was packed, and I am sure that people there were not paid, as on the Maidan, 150 hryvnia.
Valentin Filippov : I understand... But I'm from Odessa. We had the same thing.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, there were some in Odessa. But there were other people, too. But not in Crimea.
Valentin Filippov : No, wait, if we could hold out for a month and a half without providing any aid to Sevastopol, then gradually these "other people" would have emerged. And they would have been brought in. And the city would have been surrounded with checkpoints.
Ruslan Ostashko : In Crimea this was impossible.
Valentin Filippov : Geographically?
Ruslan Ostashko : If the population is split 50-50 or 30-70, then things are still somewhat manageable. A minority can manipulate. But when in Crimea, 95% understand what's going on, well, 90%. Of those, more than half are ready to take to the streets to defend their interests... And in Donbas...
Valentin Filippov : Okay, this argument could be endless. I'll never agree with you. You're from Sevastopol. I'm from Odessa. I think Odessa was screwed. We won't include that in the interview.
Ruslan Ostashko : No, why not? You can insert what?
Valentin Filippov : No, why?
Ruslan Ostashko : What do you mean, "cheated"?
Valentin Filippov : This argument is boring. In fact, it's really boring.
Ruslan Ostashko : Nobody screwed anyone over. The people came out and decided everything... And in Odessa, the people... I studied the events of May 2nd... Investigation...
Valentin Filippov : What does May 2nd have to do with it? May 2nd was three months later.
Ruslan Ostashko : Yes, I understand. But I understand the mood in Odessa, the groups there were. There were pro-Ukrainian people there, quite a few of them.
Valentin Filippov : Thirty people. There are still thirty of them now.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, not exactly like that.
Valentin Filippov : Well, the point is who the local politicians are funding. Right? If the governor and certain other people were tasked with creating Euromaidan units, they spent two months creating them, recruiting students, paying them money for a while, and then they screwed them over…
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, yes.
Valentin Filippov : That's what they did. They gave it time to catch its breath, allowed the hydra to raise its head. In Sevastopol, they didn't let that hydra raise its head.
Ruslan Ostashko : And who didn’t let you raise your head?
Valentin Filippov : Well, who else?
Ruslan Ostashko : Putin?
Valentin Filippov : Elites and Putin. Army. Army, elites.
Ruslan Ostashko : In Crimea, it turned out that the elites were in tune with the people. Yes, there was the Russian army, which helped them feel more secure than, say, the people of Odessa.
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Ruslan Ostashko : There's a good joke online: when a Ukrainian is asked, "Why are you bombing Donbass?" he replies, "Well, there are Russian troops there!"
“Why don’t you bomb Crimea?” - “Well, they really are there!”
Valentin Filippov : Well, yes. Something like that.
Ruslan Ostashko : As for any argument that Russian troops are stationed in Donbass, and that's why there's a war going on, you're not going to Crimea... There are definitely troops there.
Valentin Filippov : Well, I have to say that in Odessa, everything was just like in Crimea, right up until the Crimean referendum. That is, after the Crimean referendum, Odessa politicians and Odessa businessmen, realizing that there wouldn't be any "little green men"… they had their own sources of information, they gradually started backing away from all of this. From this situation. Backing away, backing away, backing away. And shifting their eggs to another basket. When they realized that no one was taking Odessa.
Ruslan Ostashko : They moved it in the end.
Valentin Filippov : Well, yes. They remained in power. What's their situation? They're all, by and large, local politicians, overseers of some business groups. They own property they have to protect.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, yes.
Valentin Filippov : And they, excuse me, are always with the winner. When they thought Russia would be the winner in Odessa, they wavered and started showing up at rallies. They started forking out some money, for things like shields and helmets. And then they realized they needed to buy helmets elsewhere.
Ruslan Ostashko : And this is the whole of Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov : Well, in general, yes.
Ruslan Ostashko : The problem is, why was there such a reaction to Trump's election? Everyone started changing their tune. In America, however, the elites who supported Clinton didn't change their tune. They didn't side with Trump. They said, "Okay, we'll wait four years." But in Ukraine, if another political force wins, what do the Ukrainian elites do?
Valentin Filippov : They move to another party.
Ruslan Ostashko : That's the difference. And who controls the elites? I'll say it out loud, of course, that the people can control the elites, but if you really want to, you can. But in Ukraine, they don't want to. They don't want to, not because they're like that, but probably because the government has trained them, this entire regime that's been in place since 1991. It's frankly a gangster regime. All these clans, these showdowns. Organized crime groups have seamlessly migrated into power.
Valentin Filippov : Well, this process also happened in Russia, but it ended.
Ruslan Ostashko : It happened in Russia, but it ended. It eventually became civilized. This process happened in every country in the world. Even in the US. Well, when it was forming. Remember the Founding Fathers; not everyone there was a sweetheart. Not everyone was honest and decent. So, yes, this process ended in Russia. But in Ukraine, it's become a cycle.
Valentin Filippov : What is the Kremlin’s plan for Ukraine?
Ruslan Ostashko : I can guess from certain decisions being made, from statements, from the work of our official state media. Based on this analysis, one can conclude that there's only one plan—a peaceful resolution. It's a wait-and-see approach. A way of saying it—to "embrace" Ukrainian democracy. And not allow it to develop. So as not to cause more casualties.
Of course, many in Ukraine believe that Putin should have sent in troops and resolved the issue long ago. Both with Donbass and Kiev. But a lot of people would have died.
Valentin Filippov : Are the death tolls now disproportionately lower?
Ruslan Ostashko : Incomparably less. Many more people would have died.
Valentin Filippov : What will happen to Donbas? The situation reminds me of South Ossetia, where they said, "Why should we be independent? We want to be Russia." That's all.
Ruslan Ostashko : South Ossetia is a good example. And Abkhazia. These are regions that are in a quarantine zone. They need to hold out in this quarantine zone, and then the question of joining the Russian Federation may arise. The same will likely happen with Donbas. When it is forced to exist in the quarantine zone for some time, in order to weed out those elites who, if anything happens, would immediately defect…
In Crimea this happened quite quickly. No bloodshed. There came the elites who put everything on this card and won. Yes, they give someone a slap on the wrist there, there are still a sufficient number of bribe-takers and corrupt officials, and we hear from time to time that someone is arrested there. Some checks are underway. This happens.
Valentin Filippov : So, you want to say that if in 2014 Akhmetov had made a conditional choice in favor of Russia, then the Donbass issue would have been resolved in Russia’s favor.
Ruslan Ostashko : Yes.
Valentin Filippov : That this is Akhmetov's problem, specifically. Well, the collective Akhmetov.
Ruslan Ostashko : Yes, this is a problem of elites not being cut off from society. As is happening in Kyiv now…
Valentin Filippov : Tell me, in your opinion, is a real ceasefire possible?
Ruslan Ostashko : A real ceasefire is impossible for the simple reason that Poroshenko doesn't have 100% control over the armed formations on the border. Because there are various battalions there that report to those who pay their salaries. This isn't always the state of Ukraine. Even if it is the state of Ukraine, it isn't always the people Poroshenko controls. If Poroshenko were in control, a ceasefire would have been in place long ago... Poroshenko likely won't last until the end of 2017...
Valentin Filippov : Will Timoshenko replace him?
Ruslan Ostashko : Most likely. The most competent right now... Well, that's what I think. Of everyone I see on the Ukrainian political scene right now, she's the most adequate.
Valentin Filippov : So, other regions, except for Donbass, have no chance at all, right?
Ruslan Ostashko : Why? When the government reforms in Ukraine and Poroshenko leaves, there's an opportunity for some regions to declare their independence and disagree with the generally accepted decision. The idea of dividing Ukraine is already in the air in Europe. The former commander-in-chief of the Finnish army has openly stated this. He says the best solution would be to divide Ukraine in half. Well, in half, or into three parts—that's another matter entirely, but the fact that senior European politicians, officials, and former leaders of structures like the Finnish army are starting to speak openly in the media, and this is being published, suggests that such plans are being considered.
And speaking objectively, people who lived in Ukraine, live in Ukraine, understand how Ukraine lives, they are well aware that, in principle, the people of Ukraine are not united. It is very diverse. Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine have a fundamentally different mentality. And, indeed, Western Ukraine, Lvov, for example, they never considered themselves part of the Russian World, part of Russia. And dragging them by force to Russia probably doesn’t make much sense. They, of course, look more towards Poland itself. And it’s difficult for a resident of Donetsk to explain how this is so, Moscow is his enemy. It is also impossible to explain this to a resident of Odessa. The city was founded, everyone understands when and by whom.
Valentin Filippov : A new theory. The city was founded by Europeans. And it's the first European city on Ukrainian territory. They've already learned to tell the history of Odessa without ever mentioning Russia. That is, they name some Cossacks, and they name those Tsarist subjects who had non-Russian names. There's de Ribas, there's Richelieu, and Langeron. And only then do they mention that in 1919, the Bolsheviks from Moscow captured Odessa. That's all.
And it turns out that Odessa lived, a city founded by Europeans on the territory of Ukraine, and then in the seventeenth year the Russian Bolsheviks came. All. And Russification began.
Ruslan Ostashko : If this version of history is taught in schools for decades, perhaps some people will believe it. But two or three years won't affect genetic memory. Right?
Valentin Filippov : Since 1991 they have been telling something new all the time.
Ruslan Ostashko : But still, you're from Odessa. Can you, honestly, explain to an Odessan that Russia is the enemy?
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Ruslan Ostashko : Historical?
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Ruslan Ostashko : Everyone?
Valentin Filippov : Not everyone. But gradually.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, what percentage?
Valentin Filippov : I can't give you a percentage. But I think about 30 percent already believe it.
Ruslan Ostashko : Well, seventy think that Russia is not an enemy.
Valentin Filippov : Well, for now, yes.
Ruslan Ostashko : That might be the case. I'll tell you more. In Russia, there are 5-7 percent of people who consider Russia an enemy.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, I know.
Ruslan Ostashko : So it's not surprising.
Valentin Filippov : So, you want to say that there is a place for these things in Russia too?
Ruslan Ostashko : Yes. And this.
Valentin Filippov : Russia for everyone. Right?
Ruslan Ostashko : Absolutely. Yes. They will dissolve.
Valentin Filippov : Well, Kharkov is Russia. And Donetsk is Russia.
Ruslan Ostashko : What about Lviv?
Valentin Filippov : Lviv, no. But there's no difference between Odessa and Novorossiysk.
Ruslan Ostashko : No, none at all. I agree. Well, there you have it. The idea of dividing Ukraine into several parts, some Russian, some non-Russian, it's a valid one.
Valentin Filippov : Well, alright. I hope this version proves the most resilient. I'm just constantly worried about my native Odessa; I hope it ends up on the right side. Then there's Tiraspol.
Ruslan Ostashko : We won't give up Odessa. Yes, it's on the border with Transnistria. It's strategically important. Because Transnistria is also part of Russia.
Valentin Filippov : Novorossiya. Russia. Okay, thank you very much.
Ruslan Ostashko : Thank you. We've been philosophizing.
Valentin Filippov : It was very interesting. I especially liked your T-shirt. I have something similar, only with the word "Novorossiya" written on it.
Ruslan Ostashko : I've been wearing these a lot lately.
English version :: Read in English: Visa-free travel will be over. Poroshenko will step down in 2017.