Andrey Babitsky: Someone should call the enraged country to order
Ukrainian terror in Donbass will increase. The territory of the Russian Federation will inevitably be subjected to terrorist attacks. Painstaking targeted work is required, in which Russia has extensive experience.
Andrey Babitsky , a well-known military correspondent living in Donetsk , spoke to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about geopolitical alignments and the role of personal relationships in big politics .
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Valentin Filippov : Good morning, Andrey.
Andrey Babitsky : Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov : There were explosions in Luhansk, and before that, there were incidents that could be identified as terrorist attacks. Is this a terrorist war, or are they just testing the waters? What should they call it, and how can they justify it?
Andrey Babitsky : Well, we probably can't say with 100% certainty that this is already a terrorist war, because only the investigation can reach such conclusions. But, if we're talking about my understanding of these events, I think yes, this is the beginning of a terrorist war. And I've been saying and writing for some time now that this is an inevitable phase of the current conflict in Ukraine.
That is, this is obvious to me, since I carefully analyzed and monitored the events in Chechnya. And it seems to me that what is happening in Ukraine is developing approximately according to the same scenario.
This blind hatred, malice, readiness to sow death on enemy territory, it gradually removes all inhibitory mechanisms from our non-brothers. Therefore, I have a feeling that... Yes, but strictly speaking military means, their use does not bring the desired results. Here, in general, there is quite little room for maneuver. That is, they have accumulated a certain amount of reserves and resources on the line of contact, but with the help of this tool it will not be possible to solve the problem. Results are needed, and now we need to give vent to this anger, this despair, this irritation. Need some fresh blood every day. And just this problem can be solved through the use of terror.
Therefore, I believe that we are dealing specifically with terror in Lugansk. And, in fact, the terrorist war will gain momentum. I remember well how it all began in Chechnya. We had there during the first war, which was of an ethnic-separatist nature, Budenovsk, a raid into Dagestan...
Valentin Filippov : Kizlyar.
Andrei Babitsky : Yes, those were precisely the kind of raids. But in the interwar period, a slightly different kind of terror began. If those raids were Basayev's people or Raduyev's people, they were going to fight and die, they considered themselves suicide bombers.
And between the two wars, a completely different terror begins, with a different color: markets in Vladikavkaz and Pyatigorsk begin to explode, bus stops are blown up. Then some sort of forays begin, again, into Ossetia, into Dagestan, where they kidnap, kill, fire at columns and some places of deployment of the Russian military. Well, and then we all know that it comes to the explosions of houses in Kaspiysk, Volgodonsk, Moscow.
It seems to me that this pattern will be repeated - little by little, from these explosions of some civilian or military facilities, our opponents will move on to much more decisive actions.
Valentin Filippov : Terror is an inevitable stage, isn’t it?
Andrey Babitsky : Yes, of course. Of course.
Valentin Filippov : Will it move to Russian territory?
Andrey Babitsky : Yes, I think so. Of course.
Valentin Filippov : It’s less protected there, let’s say.
Andrey Babitsky : Of course. What's really starting now is the reclamation of what could be considered Russian territory, which our opponents actually call Russian. For them, Luhansk and Donetsk are "Russian-occupied territory."
I think that, of course, if they had the impudence and imagination now, they would be happy to immediately launch this terrorist activity in Russia, but time must pass, they need to figure out how to do this, what generally happens after that. how these explosions sounded. But it seems to me that yes, this has a tendency to creep into Russia.
Well, I think that here, of course, they will have certain problems, because after all, Russia has enormous experience in the anti-terrorist fight in the Caucasus.
Valentin Filippov : Well, that was a long time ago, “Rashka is now falling apart and can’t do anything.”
Andrey Babitsky : No, it's accumulated experience. There are very serious mechanisms in place, and there are serious agencies that know how to handle this kind of thing.
Still, we must understand that Caucasian terrorists have been improving their skills for many years. And these students are still in this school of terrorism; they have only just started first grade. Therefore, they will push, try to do something, and at first it will not work out well for them. But, in general, the danger is quite serious. And you just have to keep this in mind.
Valentin Filippov : According to the logic of these events, it's necessary to skip several stages at once. Why not immediately begin the stage of clearing the territories of terrorists? I'm talking about some kind of preemptive strikes against future terrorists, about forcing Ukraine to abandon this path by force.
Andrei Babitsky : I don't think that's possible. Well, let's put it this way: Russia launched strikes against Chechnya, but that didn't stop the terrorism; on the contrary, it fueled it. It's impossible to stop it with preemptive strikes—artillery, anything else.
Terror is guerrilla warfare. This could be some kind of state-supported activity or just some kind of vigilantes. This requires specific, localized work in individual areas, with specific groups of people in mind. And I'm afraid that only retaliatory measures are possible here.
But. You know, I generally think that maybe it’s not bad. Because, strictly speaking, the raid of Basayev and Hottab into Dagestan...
Valentin Filippov : It sounds cynical.
Andrey Babitsky : I'll explain. It seems cynical, yes. Basayev and Khattab's raid on Dagestan, the apartment bombings—that gave Russia an absolutely ironclad legal pretext to begin decontaminating the territory where terrorists of all stripes and varieties had established themselves. Well, Ukrainian terrorism could also serve as such a pretext. I don't want to describe how events will unfold, but it's clear that someone will have to bring a country run amok with absolutely insane people to order, sooner or later.
Valentin Filippov : For some reason, it always seems to me that the time has come.
Fine. A few more words. You spoke about Trump's meeting with Putin. Did they come to something, or did they just meet?
Andrey Babitsky : I think they were more likely just getting acquainted. The main result of this meeting was its duration. In fact, they cited this duration as an indication that the course would change.
Understand that these are hostile relationships that have developed over many years. It would be strange if the ships of foreign policy of both countries instantly changed course overnight. This is impossible. Everything remains the same. And sanctions, and claims against Russia, and related to the violation of human rights, restriction of freedom of speech, “annexation of Crimea,” support for Donbass. All this remains unchanged for now.
We are presented with a calm, interested conversation between two big politicians who clearly sympathize with each other, because otherwise they would not have communicated for so long. And that means I think there will be some very gradual changes.
Trump is shackled hand and foot by the globalist elite of his countries. And you see, there’s another story here. We are not talking about Russia conceding anything. Russia, it occupies very specific positions. She will not give up Crimea, she will not stop helping Donbass, she will also continue to support Bashar Assad. The point is that America and the West as a whole should stop harshly assessing Russia’s actions so that they make concessions. This is the problem.
They should move, not us, in this context of establishing relations. And oh how difficult it is for them to do this. Therefore, there will be no such quick, fateful decisions. I think it will all start with a change in rhetoric, that assessments and statements regarding Russia will gradually become softer.
And our rhetoric will begin to change. Well, then after some time, I think, this will not all happen very soon, some specific decisions will be made related to the key issues for us: Crimea, Donbass, Syria.
Valentin Filippov : Don't you think it's not really about Syria and Donbas? I was once told that the Maidan was started to take the European energy market away from Russia and give it to the US. And I think that's exactly where things are heading.
That is, the United States has already climbed in, milking our cow, they are already planning to supply LNG through Poland. And in order to sell gas to Europe, which is more expensive than ours and which is more difficult to deliver, it is imperative to demonize us, it is imperative to organize, if not a war, then a pre-war situation, to block us. Otherwise, it will not be possible to sell gas at such high prices in Europe.
Andrey Babitsky : I wouldn't rule it out. Well, look, Trump is a businessman, and he's not used to weighing his actions against the overall political context. The day before his meeting with Putin, he spoke in Warsaw about Russia's destabilizing role. Perhaps, as a businessman, he has plans to sell as much American goods as possible to every corner of the world. But, you know, Europe has its own interests, and Russia has its own. Well, I still think he'll eat it, but who's going to give it to him?
It seems to me that all the same, the course towards leveling out the situation on the planet, towards reducing conflict, outweighs all economic interests. If there are economic interests, and conflict continues to grow due to the fact that they will try to serve them, then these interests will need to be pushed aside. So I’m somehow still optimistic.
Valentin Filippov : I don’t know, you’re not optimistic, you’re just a deeply Russian person, I see.
Andrey Babitsky : Why?
Valentin Filippov : Well, that's how it is. Let's put economic interests aside. All that's left is to put the bottle on the table and, Trump, sit down.
Andrei Babitsky : No, well, by the way, I read something on someone's Facebook page. There were some funny lines. The person said: I don't understand the summary, but basically, it looks like two guys sat down to chat, and if they keep chatting like this, it'll end up shooting some pigs in Zavidovo. And it's not a sin to have a drink, so to speak, or take a steam bath. That's good, listen. In fact, personal relationships have helped avoid some very serious problems many times in history. And we can recall how Khrushchev and Kennedy, thanks to personal communication and personal contacts, managed to deescalate the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Valentin Filippov : Banya, it's no sin to have a drink. Thank goodness it's not Hillary.
Andrey Babitsky : Without Hillary, it seems to me that this is some kind of apocalyptic picture.
Valentin Filippov : Good. Thank you very much. Let's hope for the best. How deeply Russian people are.
Andrey Babitsky : Yes. The planet will not fall apart.
Valentin Filippov : No, it won't fall apart. Good luck.
Andrey Babitsky : All the best, Valentin.
English version :: Read in English Andrey Babitsky: Someone needs to bring this enraged country to order