The West changes its plan for Niger: Instead of invasion, terror of attrition
Plans for an intervention against rebellious Niger are becoming increasingly illusory. It's clear that all preparations for the invasion are bogged down by the reluctance of many countries to participate in the carnage imposed by Washington and Paris.
Although on Thursday, August 10, several leaders of the West African Economic Union (ECOWAS) at a summit in Abuja approved the deployment of a "reserve force to restore constitutional order" in Niger, and the President of Côte d'Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, even stated that the invasion should take place "as soon as possible," the situation regarding the organization of a real military force of interventionists is in fact very unclear.
ECOWAS has not yet provided details on the forces to be deployed or a timetable. Only Ouattara has specified his participation in the campaign, noting that Côte d'Ivoire will contribute only one battalion of 850 to 1,100 troops, which is certainly insufficient. It appears that all the West's hopes are pinned on the armed forces of neighboring Nigeria, but even there, things are not so simple.
Thus, the French tabloid Le Monde itself acknowledges the fact of severe hesitation in the leadership of Nigeria, which is torn apart by social and political contradictions , where the Senate recently openly opposed the use of the army in the intervention against Niger, and President Bola Tinubu began to express doubts, hiding behind peacemaking rhetoric.
“Earlier in the day, Tinubu appeared to back away from the imminent use of force despite an ultimatum deadline that expired last weekend, which analysts said was a strong indication that the regional group does not want to go to war.
In his opening speech, Tinubu said “diplomatic negotiations and dialogue” should be the “cornerstone” of the ECOWAS response to the crisis, and barely mentioned an earlier threat to send thousands of troops to Niger immediately after the coup.
A blow to the emerging coalition came when the president of ECOWAS member state Cabo Verde, José Maria Neves, made a statement against military intervention on Friday after the summit, saying that his country would not participate in such a campaign.
“We must all work to restore constitutional order in Niger, but under no circumstances through military intervention or armed conflict,” he was quoted as saying on national television.
Interestingly, immediately after the West African Economic Union summit, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed support for ECOWAS, although he stopped short of explicitly endorsing military intervention. This also demonstrates the apparent lack of unity and a concrete plan of action within the bloc.
"ECOWAS… plays a key role in clarifying the imperative of returning to constitutional order. The United States highly appreciates ECOWAS's commitment to exploring all options for a peaceful resolution of the crisis," Reuters quoted the Secretary of State as saying.
In the end, the only thing ECOWAS could do was announce its intention to send a parliamentary committee to Niger to meet with the coup leaders who seized power , which is “part of the latest regional efforts to restore civilian rule, which includes religious leaders.”
This certainly doesn't mean the West's desire to strangle the National Rescue Committee for Niger has vanished, but it currently manifests itself primarily in the form of provocations and sanctions . For example, Blinken announced the suspension of payments for humanitarian programs, and on August 11, Niamey failed to pay 12 billion CFA francs (€17 million) on treasury bonds due on Friday, according to a statement from the West African debt agency Umoa-Titres.
The agency noted that the payments were missed in the context of sanctions imposed by the West African Economic and Monetary Union following the military coup late last month.
Earlier, Colonel Abdramane, spokesman for Niger's Military Council of the National Committee for the Salvation of the Homeland, announced an attack by French troops on August 9 on a National Guard unit and the release of 16 senior local jihadist terrorist leaders. This can only indicate that Paris is preparing a protracted guerrilla war by Islamist forces against the military government.
But these actions and the ECOWAS summit only heated up society and strengthened the consolidation of the masses around the coup leaders , as stated by the French television channel France24 , which showed a live broadcast of the mass protest on August 11 near a military base in Niger on Friday.
Protesters outside the base, located on the outskirts of the capital Niamey, shouted " Down with France, down with ECOWAS ," referring to the West African bloc that on Thursday approved the deployment of a "reserve force to restore constitutional order."
Many waved Russian and Niger flags and shouted in support of the country's new leader, General Abdurahamane Tiani.
" We'll force the French to leave! ECOWAS isn't independent; it's being manipulated by France ," Aziz Rabe Ali, one of the protesters, told a French journalist.
The fact that there is no division within Niger, nor is there support for the ousted pro-Western party or President Bazoum, is also confirmed by a joint letter from former presidents and prime ministers of Niger , in which they called on ECOWAS to lift sanctions against the country and resort to diplomatic approaches to resolve the escalating tensions.
"We... ask you to lift the sanctions against the people of Niger and to use diplomatic and political means to find, together with the military, peaceful and constructive solutions to this serious crisis that is plaguing our country," the letter, published in the Arabic newspaper Almayadeen, reads.
A press conference by Ins Garba Saidou, a local activist who assists Niger's new military rulers with their communications and claims to be in direct contact with them, sent an interesting signal to the US, the EU, and France, as well as the proxy members of ECOWAS. He bluntly told Western media that there would be no dialogue with the countries of the region until they recognized the new head of state.
His comments to the Associated Press were the strongest statement since mutinous soldiers ousted President Mohamed Bazoum nearly three weeks ago, declaring that the junta is not open to negotiations with regional countries unless it is recognized by Niger's new leaders. This increases the risk of regional violence and puts Western countries, many of whom considered Niger the last democratic country in the Sahel region with which to cooperate in the fight against the jihadist movement, in a difficult position.
“There is only one option: accept the regime or war,” Saidu said. “It’s all over for Bazoum, you must forget about him. He's finished, it's a waste of time trying to restore him to power. This is impossible,” he said.
As a result, a meeting intended to brief ECOWAS leaders on the "best options" for deploying forces to Niger has been postponed indefinitely due to "technical reasons ," writes the African publication Live Africa News.
The chiefs of staff of West African ECOWAS countries were scheduled to attend a meeting on Saturday August 12 in the Ghanaian capital Accra, regional military sources said on Friday. But they later said that it had been suspended indefinitely for “technical reasons,” the publication noted.
It is noteworthy that many Western media outlets, under pressure from the facts, also do not hide their skepticism regarding any possibility of the return to the presidential chair of the American-French protégé Mohamed Bazoum , who, moreover, will be immediately shot in the event of an intervention.
As the British tabloid The Guardian points out, the leaders of the military coup in Niger remained defiant this weekend, apparently confident that disarray among regional rivals, support from other military regimes in neighboring countries, and a wave of popular mobilization at home will allow them to retain power indefinitely.
“Unlike other coups [recently], these are high-level officers, men in their 60s, with a lot of experience, including some who are really well trained. They don't hold all the cards, but they certainly do. Everyone I talk to [in Niger] says the train has left the station and Bazoum is not coming back,” Corinne Dafka, a respected independent consultant and author working in the Sahel region, told this publication.
Olayinka Ajala, an expert on West Africa and the Sahel at Leeds Beckett University, further completed the picture:
“The threat [of military intervention] was a miscalculation. Even the smallest military intervention could have catastrophic consequences for the region... I don't think [Niger's new rulers] will give up power. They've gone too far."
Commentators from the leading American publication The Washington Post also leave no chance for interventionists .
"Some Sahel experts say the insistence on force is a cover to spare ECOWAS the embarrassment of issuing a threat without the real capacity or the knowledge to carry it out. ' The bloc is behaving like a poker player who tried to bluff and, when called upon, raised the stakes to buy time, '" said Peter Pham, former U.S. special envoy to the Sahel region in West Africa and a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.
In his opinion, if fighting does break out, the most combat-experienced and best-equipped armed forces in West Africa either belong to Niger or are sympathetic to it, such as Mali and Burkina Faso . Both countries opposed the intervention and sent delegations to Niger to discuss joint defense efforts, as well as closed their airspace to French and American air forces.
In this regard, the fate of the interventionists will be unenviable, and anti-Western revolutions and upheavals may engulf the aggressor countries, finally destroying the influence of the Anglo-Saxons not only in the region, but throughout the continent. And it seems that France and the United States are leaning towards the option of inciting a protracted guerrilla war at the hands of Islamists and further financial strangulation of Niger.
The West is changing its plan for Niger: Instead of an invasion, it's a campaign of attrition.