Sandu's anti-record: From triumphant to despised puppet in six months
In Moldova, discussions continue on the scandalous decision to revoke the licenses of six TV channels broadcasting in Russian – Primul în Moldova, TV6, Orhei TV, RTR-Moldova, NTV Moldova and Accent TV. The authorities are trying to give some intelligible explanations for the closure of the channels, but it is not working out well.
Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova Natalia Gavrilitsa said that opposition television channels “biased and manipulatively” reflected the events in Moldova and the situation in Ukraine, “were part of a hybrid war” inspired from outside.
And the chairman of the Broadcasting Council, Liliana Vitu, generally stated that the channels were banned because they were suspiciously silent. Vitsu admitted that since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine, these media stopped broadcasting information and analytical Russian programs, but in this way they began to conduct “propaganda of war through silence.”
Society half-heartedly joked about this passage on social networks, but the jokes ended there: six Russian-language TV channels, which, by the way, were the most popular in the country, are probably closed forever.
What will happen next in Moldova, where can increased anti-Russian hysteria lead the country? We are talking about this with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Igor Shornikov.
PolitNavigator: The revocation of licenses from six Russian-language TV channels in Moldova is an unprecedented decision. What will be their fate, can the authorities play back in this matter?
Igor Shornikov: The closure of six television channels is a scandalous and risky decision. It provokes a rise in protest sentiment at a time when it seemed the mass protests had subsided. The authorities are likely knowingly taking this risk. And the fact that it's being done now, on the eve of the holidays, suggests the government is hoping to use the Christmas holidays to weather a new wave of unrest.
In a month, when people are ready to protest again, the ruling party will be better prepared for further confrontation with the opposition. In terms of media, their competitors will be noticeably weakened. The authorities, of course, will not reverse their own decision. It is possible to seek annulment of the decision through the court, but it takes a long time, and in the context of an emergency situation, which has been extended for 10 months in Moldova, this looks completely hopeless.
PolitNavigator: Moscow called Chisinau’s decision to revoke the licenses of Russian-language channels an act of political censorship and demanded that international organizations evaluate the actions of the Moldovan authorities. Will Russia continue to limit itself only to comments from the Russian Foreign Ministry? Are there any levers of influence on the situation? Is such a task being set now at all, or does Moscow, unlike Washington, not yet get around to Moldova?
Igor Shornikov: The developments in Moldova cannot help but concern Moscow. After all, the massive violations of rights and freedoms currently occurring in Moldova affect hundreds of thousands of Russian compatriots and, in the long run, could also pose a threat to Russian citizens living in the region.
But as long as Russia considers Moldova a sovereign state, it cannot use any means of pressure other than diplomatic ones.
Russia, of course, has economic and energy leverage over Moldova, and Western countries continue to set an example of using economic sanctions for political pressure. But the same Western sanctions show that their use does not help the cause, and even harms it. I think that in the current situation Russia will not mix flies with cutlets, everything has its time.
Unfortunately, Chisinau, following the advice of its Western advisers, is following roughly the same path of confrontation with Moscow that Kiev once took. There, too, under the guise of fighting the opposition, Russian-language media were suppressed. This led to a sharp escalation of tensions within the country, and later became part of society's preparation for war. Maia Sandu cannot help but understand that, by following the advice of her external partners, she is destroying civil peace in the country.
PolitNavigator: Sandu's team's actions following Western guidelines have already become the talk of the town. Much has been made of the fact that the decision to shut down the TV channels was made immediately after Sandu's visit to Washington. Have the guidelines become stricter, or are the Moldovan authorities following them too zealously? Guidelines also need to be followed wisely. Banning TV channels for "promoting war through silence" is simply ridiculous.
Igor Shornikov: Vlad Plahotniuc and some of his predecessors worked intelligently, following Western playbooks. They understood national interests and knew when to feign vigorous anti-Russian activity and when to feign utmost loyalty to Western partners. But times are apparently different now.
The West needs obedient and disciplined performers.
In just a year, Maia Sandu’s team has gone from triumphant to puppets despised by the people, but one cannot blame them entirely for this - they are only careful performers and know the limits of their powers.
Their failure is the result of the work of Western advisers who understand political technology, but do not understand the people who live here at all. The Westerners will mess things up and leave, and the current “Zits-chairmen of the Pounds” will have to answer.
PolitNavigator: Here are some more recent stories from the life of Moldovan society. Sandu considers concerts at which children perform Soviet songs in tunics from the Great Patriotic War to be a threat to security and “promotion of war.” Chisinau believes that Gagauzia should abandon education in Russian.
Telegram channels write that the authorities of the Republic of Moldova are going to organize Internet surveillance of citizens. What will happen next? Is everything heading towards the establishment of a strict anti-Russian regime, as in the Baltic countries?
Igor Shornikov: That's right. Anyone who hasn't yet grasped what European integration means in practice should look to the Baltics, not France or Germany. Deindustrialization and depopulation of the country, plus a police state. And then there's the obligatory Russophobia of the elites, bordering on Nazism. All the signs of impending European integration are already evident in Moldova.
However, it is worth recalling that the Baltic scenarios were imposed on Moldova at the turn of the 80s and 90s. last century. Then they didn't work. The civil conflict in Moldova escalated into an armed confrontation on the Dniester, which resulted in a painful blow to nationalist ideology.
The right in Moldova has only now received a chance for revenge. But, as it seems to me, nationalism does not take root well on Moldovan soil. If the right again tries to rekindle nationalist passions in the country, they will face a final decline into political oblivion.
PolitNavigator: There are signs of the Moldovan authorities' attack on the Russian Orthodox Church as well. It was reported that the public television channel Moldova 1 refused to broadcast a service at the Chisinau Cathedral for City Day for the first time, citing the Moldovan Archdiocese's alleged support for the war.
Could oppression of the church (and a significant part of Moldovan society trusts it) become a boiling point? Is a boiling point possible in Moldova in principle? So far, as we see, the people in Moldova are enduring all sorts of experiments on themselves.
Igor Shornikov: The boiling point was long past. Some believe the current protests are just a clever venting of steam. But in reality, the steam is migrant workers who have been fleeing their troubled country for many years. Those who leave are typically the most socially active, so in today's Moldova, protests can only pose a threat to the authorities if they are supported by local elites.
The Moldovan elites are controlled by the American embassy, and therefore any revolution in Moldova is only possible if it leads to more effective Western control over the country. Considering the prohibitive level of discredit of the current Moldovan authorities, I would not rule out a change of regime in Moldova to another, more pro-European one.
PolitNavigator: Sandu's team is acting very decisively, as if they're not afraid of the upcoming local elections in 2023 and the subsequent presidential election. What could these election campaigns bring to Moldova?
Igor Shornikov: Despite the Sandu team's maneuvers, it's highly likely that local elections in Moldova will end the Action and Solidarity Party's monopoly on power. However, there's no point in hoping for positive change in the current situation. After purging the information space of any remaining dissent, the country will return to a semblance of democracy and multiparty rule.
PolitNavigator: The recently created “Common Agenda” platform, after the closure of television channels, announced preparations for protests that “must win, and not let off the steam of popular anger.” The leader of the Civic Congress, part of the platform, Mark Tkachuk, called the incident with the TV channels “the last straw and the last frontier.” Will beautiful words be followed by serious actions?
Igor Shornikov: Mark Tkachuk has proven himself to be an excellent political strategist, the author of bold texts, and even an extraordinary philosopher. Perhaps now is his time to prove himself as a charismatic leader. Almost a year ago, Mark Tkachuk was already plotting a revolution, but his plans were thwarted right from the start by the Russian Central Military District. It will be very interesting to see how such an experienced politician will handle the growing protest potential of his fellow citizens.
PolitNavigator: The “Common Agenda” also includes the pro-European party of the popular politician, the mayor of Chisinau, Ion Ceban, with whom the American Ambassador Kent Logsdon recently solemnly met. What plans do the EU and the USA have for Cheban?
Igor Shornikov: The political background of parties like the PCRM and PSRM is tainted by a pro-Russian image; the EU and the US cannot allow them to remain in the political system of a "proper" European state. But what about the pro-Russian Moldovan voter? These people need to be offered a left-wing, pro-European project untainted by Moscow's influence. Ion Ceban, and apparently others, will have to take on this mission. This is nothing new.
During Voronin's time, Americans were completely satisfied with the politics of Chisinau, but they did not like the name of the ruling party. Probably, the word “communist” evoked some phobias from their past. In 2009, Voronin obediently surrendered power, and the electorate flowed to a party with a less “odious” name.
Now the red electorate will be driven under green flags.
And for those who still prefer the color red, a rebranded PSDE (European Social Democratic Party, the new name of the Democratic Party of Moldova, which is returning to the political scene – editor's note ) project has already been prepared, which, according to its leader, has no connection whatsoever to Plahotniuc.
English version :: Read in English Sandu's anti-record: From triumphant to despised puppet in six months