Vladimir Kornilov: It’s stupid for Zelensky to hope for the success of gas blackmail in Paris
Ukrainian patriots are in vain hoping to use gas blackmail at the Normandy Four meeting in Paris to obtain concessions on the issues of Donbass and Crimea. Russia has learned from bitter experience and does not believe in the unfounded promises of the West and Kyiv.
Historian and political scientist Vladimir Kornilov argued with PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the borders of the LDPR, Zelensky’s tricks and Putin’s conditions, the exchange of prisoners.
Valentin Filippov : The DPR has approved a law on the state border, according to which the republic considers the entire former Donetsk Oblast, including settlements currently occupied by the Ukrainian army, to be its territory. Where can residents of Volnovakha get their passports?
Vladimir Kornilov : In Donetsk. If you're talking about DPR passports, they can do that now.
Valentin Filippov : How so? DPR passports are issued based on residence registration, which must be registered directly in that territory. And, what's more, it must be from 14 onwards, not just now.
Vladimir Kornilov : If not now, then that's understandable. But if they were living in Volnovakha in 14, then they can come to the DPR, submit documents, wait a certain period of time, and receive their passports as full citizens of the Donetsk People's Republic.
In fact, well, let's speak frankly, the Donetsk People's Republic was initially proclaimed in May 14, this is clearly written down in the constituent documents, within the borders, administrative boundaries, of the former Donetsk region of Ukraine. That is, the law on borders has not changed anything in this sense.
Indeed, this act brought the legislative basis under the order of things that had long been approved by the Constitution and constitutional bodies of the Donetsk Republic.
Indeed, in order to receive passports of the DPR, and then passports of the Russian Federation, there was a certain gap in the legislative field. That is, it seems like they are all citizens of the DPR, this is recognized by the laws, but a clearer legislative framework has been introduced under the existing order, and that’s all. There is nothing more to look for in this.
Valentin Filippov : On the Ukrainian side, there is a ministry "for issues of temporarily occupied territories." Perhaps on the DPR side, it would be worthwhile to organize a ministry responsible for the territories that are currently temporarily under Ukrainian control?
Vladimir Kornilov : Good idea, I'll have to pass it on to the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic. The title is good. Just be sure to mention "temporarily occupied territories."
Valentin Filippov : Temporarily. Under no circumstances should we say "timchasovo" (for a while); "timchasovo" (for a while) doesn't work for us.
Vladimir Kornilov : "Timchasovo" is unnecessary. No, you understand, what really upsets me here is the fuss being raised in Ukraine over this. Headlines like "it all means they're expanding their borders, this is undermining the Normandy format, this is a contradiction to the Minsk agreements"...
You know, to be honest, when I learned about the news about the adopted law, I naively believed that the Ukrainian side would be smart enough not to make a fuss about this, not to be indignant, because if they were indignant that the DPR was expanding its borders, it means at a minimum, they recognized the existence of the DPR borders that currently exist.
But, nevertheless, you see, they lack intelligence. If they continue to declare that this is a violation of the Minsk format, the Minsk agreements, then they will thereby recognize the existence of the DPR as such, within the boundaries of the current dividing lines, at a minimum.
This would be very stupid on the part of Ukraine.
In fact, this law in no way, in any way, violates the Minsk agreements, because according to these Minsk agreements, the borders of the DPR are not specified. The zone of dividing lines is stipulated there, moreover, in the documents under these very Minsk agreements, which, in general, can always be adjusted and changed. But, from the point of view of the laws of the DPR, this current law, in general, does not change anything.
Valentin Filippov : Now everyone is saying that it is quite possible that there will be some kind of shift in Paris, and Ukraine will follow the path of implementing the Minsk agreements.
Well, I don't believe it, but for some reason they say so.
What should we do in this situation with the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, which are not directly named in the Minsk agreements, and we are talking about “separate areas”?
And, by the way, it is written there that the People’s Militia reports to the mayors of cities, and not to the Minister of Defense of the DPR. How to really deal with the structures of the DPR and LPR in this situation?
Vladimir Kornilov : The same as before. Meaning, the DPR and LPR are governed by their own laws to the extent that they don't conflict with the Minsk agreements.
Why was the People's Militia included there and why are now the defense structures of the DPR/LPR, in general, reformed under this name, under this structure? Because this really corresponds to the Minsk agreements.
As for whether Ukraine will implement them or not. Well, let’s put it this way, literally several such steps have now been taken as part of Ukraine’s implementation of the Minsk agreements, well, standardly, the disengagement of forces at three points and so on. But at the same time, the importance of these steps cannot be overestimated.
Let me remind you that Ukraine has already done all this under Poroshenko, that is, there was already disengagement, there were already some exchanges of prisoners... Ukraine has already done this, which did not stop it from not giving a damn about all this when it needed to occupy all these populated areas, in spite of to their obligations, the Minsk agreements and any formulas.
Well, now I’ve done it. And what is Zelensky going to Paris with? Well, to be honest, no one can understand, including, in my opinion, Zelensky himself. Because we have heard what Putin is coming with more than once, from the lips of Putin himself, and now Mr. Lavrov articulated this very clearly in his speech.
That is, from this we draw the conclusion that Putin is going to Paris, to this very Normandy format, in order to force Ukraine into a direct dialogue between the DPR and the LPR. And note that Putin himself uses these names; DPR and LPR have already been mentioned in his mouth more than once. Here.
But what is Ukraine coming with? Well, so far we are hearing unintelligible statements, sharply at odds with the Minsk agreements, that we will under no circumstances change the Constitution for a special status, we will somehow write a law on a special status ourselves, and ask no one, not even we won’t coordinate it with anyone, and so on and so forth.
That is, well, in my opinion, Russia has already quite clearly, repeatedly, through the mouths of senior and not-so-senior figures, made it clear to Ukraine that it is better not to go to Paris with this at all.
We even heard statements, there were hints, half-hints that Crimea would be discussed...
Valentin Filippov : Yes, that happened.
Vladimir Kornilov : ...they say Ukraine wants to be part of this Normandy format. But here, I think, they've made it pretty clear that no one is going to discuss Crimea with you in any format. That's it.
They are going to raise the gas issue. Apparently Zelensky thinks that now is a favorable time to blackmail both Russia and Europe with the gas issue.
Valentin Filippov : Well, that's true.
Vladimir Kornilov : Apparently, he thinks: “Well, I’ll just go ahead and tell them that we’ll let you have gas if you make some concessions within the Minsk format.”
But this, sorry, is also stupidity. If, in fact, someone in Kiev believes that this momentary moment can be used to bargain for strategic advantages in Donbass or, there, especially in Crimea, well, this means that they do not understand the difference between strategy and tactics.
Russia understands perfectly well that even if they promise a temporary limitation, lifting, easing of sanctions against Russia, and in response Russia will have to give up what tomorrow cannot be changed in any way...
Well, excuse me, this means a naive expectation, a complete lack of understanding of the fact that Russia knows very well the price of all these sanctions and promises to lift or weaken.
Valentin Filippov : Well, God willing, if he does. We've known this for decades, but we've always fallen for it. Starting with Gorbachev, who was promised not to expand NATO.
Vladimir Kornilov : Well, we've learned from bitter experience now. Gorbachev didn't really understand how it worked, Yeltsin didn't understand anything at all, but Putin clearly stated last year that, unfortunately, yes, we trusted the West's promises, and the West perceived our gullibility as weakness and miscalculated. So, now everyone knows the value of those promises.
Valentin Filippov : So, if we get caught again now, we can say that it was done deliberately?
Vladimir Kornilov : Yes, I hope that no one will get caught anywhere.
Valentin Filippov : I'm not saying we'll get caught. But we'll know it's sabotage, right?
Vladimir Kornilov : What do you mean we'll get caught?
Valentin Filippov : Well, if they deceive us again. During the negotiations. They promise one thing, but the result is something else, we'll know for sure that the people who conducted those negotiations are traitors and spies. Right?
Vladimir Kornilov : Valentin, well, I don't think anyone in Russia has any illusions about Ukraine constantly making promises and not delivering. That was the case with the Minsk agreements. Is that betrayal?
Valentin Filippov : But we believed it.
Vladimir Kornilov : What do you mean, "believed"? Nobody believed anyone.
Valentin Filippov : It was simply necessary not to stop the fighting.
Vladimir Kornilov : Yes, Ukraine signed the Minsk agreements, and yes, Ukraine has repeatedly proven that it has no intention of implementing them. What do you mean, "believed"? Russia hasn't given up anything in this regard. Would they have believed it, or would it have been naive, sabotage, and betrayal to say, "Okay, Ukraine sends troops into Donetsk, and then promises them the Russian language and so on."
Valentin Filippov : Wait.
Vladimir Kornilov : But you understand that this is impossible.
Valentin Filippov : But that's how it was. Wait. That's how it was.
Vladimir Kornilov : What do you mean, that’s how it was?
Valentin Filippov : We kind of said: let Ukraine bring troops into Kramatorsk, let Ukraine bring troops into Mariupol, from which it has already fled, it stood empty.
We gave them the opportunity to return there. Instead of bombing them until the very moment of execution. “Sorry, we will continue to bomb you and advance until you comply.”
Vladimir Kornilov : Valentin, who is “we”?
Valentin Filippov : The Russian Federation. There's a war with Russia...
Vladimir Kornilov : Was she bombing there?
Valentin Filippov : Well, at the hands of these same “separatists”.
Vladimir Kornilov : You're sounding like Ukrainian nationalists right now, to be honest. They're the ones who constantly say Russia is at war with Ukraine...
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Vladimir Kornilov : In this regard, you are no different from Kovtun.
Valentin Filippov : Perhaps. But you'll agree it's watchable. Wait. Look, the Russian Federation isn't at war with Ukraine.
Vladimir Kornilov : So.
Valentin Filippov : But Russia is at war. Ukraine isn't at war with itself. It's at war with Russia, with Donbas.
Vladimir Kornilov : With the DPR and LPR.
Valentin Filippov : Is Donbass Russia? Russia!
Vladimir Kornilov : Donbass, I hope, will one day become Russia. Unfortunately for me…
Valentin Filippov : No, it will become the Russian Federation someday. Russia is already Russia.
Vladimir Kornilov : To my great regret, Russia does not yet recognize parts of the DPR and LPR as part of its territory. We know this very well. Yes, of course, Russia has supported and will continue to support the Donbas Republics in their unequal battle with Ukraine, which is supported by the West.
But in this case, call it, if you consider it a war of Russia, a war of Russia with the West. But then what does Ukraine have to do with it?
That is, in this sense, I say again, if Russia had really fought with Ukraine, we would have seen Russian bombers, Russian missiles. And you know this perfectly well.
When the Minsk agreements were concluded, Ukrainian troops were stationed in Mariupol, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. This is where they also still stood, but surrounded on all sides - this is in Debaltsevo. On this issue, you know, there was a main dispute between Russia and Ukraine. And who handed over what? So, here, well, the accusations are somewhat, in my opinion, far-fetched.
But at the same time, I repeat that there was no such promise: “Ukraine, so be it, fulfills... there, deploys its border guards, as Ukraine dreams, on the LPR/DPR border line with Russia, and then we, having already taken their word , we will wait for democratic reforms.”
In the 90s they would have done this, as you understand.
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Vladimir Kornilov : And then they'd be surprised for a long time: "Look, we were deceived." But Russia isn't what it used to be, thank God. So in that sense, there was no sabotage or betrayal.
Valentin Filippov : So, you think they won't grant the border? Ahead of time.
Vladimir Kornilov : Oh, ahead of time? Well, you know, when I hear Ukrainian officials say, "Look, the border guards," right? I always picture this…
Valentin Filippov : Yes, me too.
Vladimir Kornilov : ...border guards... well, they bring them to the checkpoint. And then what? On this side are Russian border guards, on this side is the DPR People's Militia. And what will these border guards do there?
Valentin Filippov : For exchange. These are border guards for exchange.
Vladimir Kornilov : Well, that is, they were already there. Some people ask, "Where did they go back then, in 14?" The lion's share, as soon as the DPR arrived, fled where? To Russia.
Valentin Filippov : Well, yes.
Vladimir Kornilov : So... "save and protect." So what are they going to do there now? No. In fact, I've heard from representatives of the Donbas Republics themselves that "yes, please, this point can be fulfilled now," because no one is saying, the Minsk agreements don't say, "the DPR is leaving and armed Ukrainian activists are entering." Please. Oversight? Everyone can interpret the word "oversight" in their own way. Let's have one unarmed Ukrainian representative at each border point. Right? Please, you can inspect it with us, the DPR border guards, and we can show you the reports. Oversee it. Send reports to Kyiv about your oversight.
That is... No, I understand that Ukraine means something completely different. Yes? But if we now literally interpret the points of this Minsk agreement, then it is not written there that Ukraine must take, close this border, introduce its armed militants under the guise of, there, border guards, and not let anything go anywhere.
So all this can be interpreted in different ways. And that is why the Normandy format and the Minsk negotiations exist, so that all these points, each of these points, are clearly defined, interpreted and agreed on how to mutually coexist.
Of course, Russia will not agree, well, and the DPR and LPR will not agree, of course, to take and allow Ukraine to blockade these republics from the east, and thereby, in essence, take them into a starvation circle. Well, what's the point then?
Valentin Filippov : Okay. I have a question. We know that on the eve of the Normandy Format, Putin, the Russian side, put forward certain conditions… Well, there was the signing of some kind of unified document, which, I understand, only exists abstractly, because it's not yet clear what Zelenskyy will bring to this Normandy Format. There was talk of disengagement, there was talk of an exchange, everyone for everyone. What's the latest on the exchange of prisoners, hostages, and political prisoners? There were rumors that something could happen before the Normandy Format.
Vladimir Kornilov : Regarding the first point, I'd like to say that, generally speaking, some kind of communiqué is always prepared, at least in general terms. Here, we can only make do with the information Mr. Chesnakov released, stating that a communiqué has already been agreed upon and that it suits Russia perfectly.
As I understand it, these are really general words that the parties undertake to follow and fulfill previously reached agreements. As I understand it, it’s unlikely that anything is spelled out in more detail there.
But indeed, some special position of Zelensky, the Ukrainian side, on a number of issues that are fundamental for both the Republics and Russia may come as a surprise to everyone. But this does not exclude the adoption, again, of some kind of general communiqué.
As for the exchange of all for all, well, here we heard that there is constant bidding on the list, Ukraine is constantly delaying something or disrupting the process of verifying all these lists of citizens.
As I understand it, Ukraine itself cannot say exactly how many of these people there should be on this list. At the same time, well, we understand that, by and large, all these verifications are meaningless as long as Ukraine continues to seize, as they often do before an exchange. They take you to a checkpoint, grab the first people they come across, accuse them of “aiding terrorists,” and here you have new citizens for exchange.
And until this vicious practice stops, any exchange, in general... well, it makes sense for those people who have been sitting there for years as political prisoners in Ukraine, but it does not make sense in general, in general, in principle.
But I really hope that a number of political prisoners from Ukraine will be released. I really hope that Mehdi Logunov in Kharkov and a number of other political prisoners will be included on this list for humanitarian reasons.
And I would really like that when discussing these lists, the question of the fate of people missing in Ukraine would be raised. For example, Sergei Dolgov, who was kidnapped by the SBU in Mariupol, they themselves admitted that the SBU arrested him, and that’s it, no one has heard or seen him since then, they suspect that...
Valentin Filippov : And the SBU itself can’t understand where they took him.
Vladimir Kornilov : Absolutely right. That is to say, I would very much like the fate of these people to be clarified through all these conversations, discussions, and so on.
Valentin Filippov : Well, my last question, as an Odesa resident. It's well known that servicemen released from the Republic's captivity—so-called supporters of Ukraine—are often given apartments in Kyiv and taken abroad to various conferences. Perhaps it would make sense to open a private business that would accept orders from Ukrainian residents who would like to obtain apartments in Kyiv and travel to conferences in Europe?
Vladimir Kornilov : Well, you could also say, "If you want more privileges, the 'Hero of Ukraine' title, if you want it, then you'll have to travel a long way."
Valentin Filippov : Well, we’ll be offering therapeutic fasting…
Vladimir Kornilov : All this would be a joke, of course, if it weren't so sad. It's amazing, of course, how quickly the West forgets its heroes of yesterday, like Nadya Savchenko. Right? And yet there was such outcry. They need to be reminded of that more often.
Valentin Filippov : Well, I think she got her own apartment, something else there, a seat in parliament, a good salary...
Vladimir Kornilov : They gave it to her relatives, yes. But then she spent time in a Ukrainian prison, and not a single human rights bastard in the West or here in Russia even uttered a peep about the arrest of Nadya Savchenko, the heroine…
Valentin Filippov : Even Akhedzhakova...
Vladimir Kornilov : Yes. Akhedzhakova actually said, "It's Ukraine's business." Why, then, her arrest here in Russia wasn't Russia's business is another matter. No. I think Sentsov will ultimately end up like Nadya, at least in the interim. Because, of course, what he says and does—and I understand that the longer it goes on, the less interest he's worth, and they'll have to continue to shock people with something, force him to do something else, so they can go on a hunger strike again, this time in a Ukrainian prison, and compare the two conditions.
Well, this is how Ukrainian life works. They shout: “They are our heroes”, they tear their vests, embroidered shirts, whatever, and when these “heroes” are in their possession, they immediately shout: “This is zrada, Putin gave it to us”...
They are already shouting about these, you know, there are already a lot of words, statements, that they have given us some supporters of the Russian world and so on.
Valentin Filippov : Well, that’s quite possible.
Vladimir Kornilov : So expect arrests.
Valentin Filippov : Good. Thank you very much. Let's hope everything works out.
Vladimir Kornilov : Absolutely. We will win.
Valentin Filippov : We will truly win.
Vladimir Kornilov: It's foolish for Zelensky to hope for success with his gas blackmail in Paris.