“Ukraine is in trouble, Russia has seized the initiative, Poroshenko’s generals are lying”
The Russians have seized the military initiative on the land front in Donbass, Russia already completely controls the Sea of Azov - the Ukrainian port in Mariupol is virtually dead, the next stage will be a blockade of ports on the Black Sea coast. Official Kyiv refuses to admit loss, the generals are lying - the situation is out of control.
British Colonel Glen Grant, who previously worked as an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, writes about this in an article published by the Khvilya portal.
“Ukraine is in trouble. She has been in trouble for the last 4 years. However, the government continues to play the game “if we don’t notice the problems, maybe they will go away on their own.” Now the game gets serious. The war in Donbass is not slowing down. On the contrary, the tension has become even greater in recent weeks. It doesn't matter what beautiful words the Joint Staff uses to say that the situation is under control. When there are 45 or more attacks in one day, soldiers continue to die and be injured—the exact opposite of being “under control.”
In fact, in this land war, Russia is taking the initiative and attacking wherever and whenever it pleases . Now the tension is shifting to maritime territories. Russia seized the Sea of Azov without any resistance and is now actively advancing into the Black Sea . Its main goal is to completely block maritime trade routes to Ukraine. It has already achieved half of this with the "death" of Mariupol ," he writes.
The author points out that dreams of Western support and NATO membership were destroyed.
“NATO membership remains a pipe dream, and NATO is unlikely to ride a white horse to save the country. It has now become obvious that precious time was wasted on unrealistic dreams, spreading strange ideas among the population, for example, that the country is 90% ready to join NATO, and shouting about reforms, which are nothing more than ordinary competent administration,” the expert believes.
The Briton believes that Ukraine will have to make new concessions to Russia, stall for time and make emergency efforts to restore the fleet.
"Both internal and external actions are now necessary to buy time to rearm and refit the fleet. Options are few, and they could also be unsuccessful. It's highly likely that Russia will have to make additional concessions ."
The first is a diplomatic approach. The government must mobilize all ambassadors to convince host governments of the need to put pressure on Russia to back down.
The second is working directly with the US and EU, aimed at strengthening sanctions and rhetoric. The PR campaign must be massive and ruthless.
Third, call on the United States and other states with powerful navies to provide ships and weapons on long-term loan terms.
The final and most unpleasant thing is to demand a "Minsk-3" summit, which would focus on naval issues, in order to buy time. "It might be necessary to restore Crimea's water supply , but that's a strong trump card, and it should be the last thing on the table," Grant states.
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