The scientist described three scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic will develop according to one of three scenarios, depending on how strict the quarantine measures will be and how effective they will be.
Georgy Bazykin, a professor at the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, announced this at a press conference in Moscow, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“There are three scenarios. Either everything will be very quickly, or everything will be very bad, or everything will be very good. If no measures are taken at all, then we will face a very sharp increase in the number of cases. There will be a rapid outbreak of the epidemic, many people will die, and after that there will be a rapid decline.
This will happen in about 2 months and will be associated with a huge number of casualties. The overwhelming majority of countries consider such sacrifices unacceptable.
If we can use very effective quarantine measures to almost completely stop the transmission, then there is hope that everything will also be stopped within a few months. For Russia, a forecast of 2 months would be very optimistic, more likely more. If now all the measures we are taking turn out to be very effective, then this recession will take approximately this long.
But we must understand that until a vaccine is created, the world will still remain a little different - it will be impossible to completely remove these measures, there will always be a danger of new imports and local outbreaks.
If these measures turn out to be moderately effective and something in between is adopted, then we will be able to reduce the acute peak, smooth it out, and then the epidemic will continue for a very long time, for many months. Thus, a huge number of people still die. It may be possible to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system in a radical scenario.
That is, the best you can hope for is to use tough measures to very sharply reduce transmission. We know that there are countries that have managed to do this,” the professor said.
According to his estimates, creating a vaccine will take 17-18 months at best, provided that all stages of this process are reduced as much as possible, whereas in a normal case this would take years.
English version :: Read in English A scientist described three scenarios for the coronavirus pandemic.