Dancing is not for nothing. How much can be stolen on a tank, and who benefits from a protracted war in Ukraine
The Americans are betting on a protracted war of attrition. This assumption can be confirmed by a recent statement in the form of a forecast made by the coordinator of strategic communications at the US National Security Council, John Kirby. According to him, the White House admits that fighting in Ukraine will continue in the summer of 2024, and therefore Congress will ask for new military assistance for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Leading Western media are also actively dispersing such sentiments. This is not yet a dominant trend, but it is already a very noticeable upward media trend. Thus, The Wall Street Journal unexpectedly devotes one of its materials to assessing the prospects... spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024. And The Times, calling Zelensky’s current counter-offensive “painfully slow,” writes that there is “a growing awareness in Kyiv and the West that they need to start working within a new, longer time frame.”
Ukrainian politicians and military officials almost openly admit that they have not achieved any significant progress in offensive actions, even despite large-scale supplies of Western weapons.
Those to blame for this ending have already been found and appointed. These are those who very recently promised selfies of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers on the Yalta beaches or a breakthrough to the Sea of Azov and similar bold statements.
“Those optimists who confidently predicted a quick and easy victory when Ukraine launched its long-awaited counteroffensive did Kyiv no good by raising expectations to unrealistic levels,” summarizes the aforementioned The Times.
In general, the war has essentially turned into a routine. There are fewer and fewer reports about an imminent and imminent turning point at the front, and more and more reports about sluggish battles for some “forester’s hut” changing hands several times a day. In conditions when the maximum that the military authorities can report is a lost (or, conversely, occupied) village or company-level maneuvers, superiority over the enemy in weapons becomes critical.
Hence all this whining by Zelensky and Co. on the topic “Give us the F16 for air superiority”, “Give us electronic reconnaissance equipment”, “Give us more tanks”, etc., etc.
What’s interesting is that they give it. Not like that, not like that, and not in such quantities as they ask, but they give it. The other day, Biden once again asked Congress for an additional 24 billion for Ukraine, half of which is a purely military tranche, and Kyiv will receive 8,5 billion in the form of humanitarian aid.
Obviously, the Pentagon, together with the White House, determines the size and range of military supplies based not on Kyiv’s wishes, but on the basis of their own vision of the desired development of the conflict and priorities.
There is merit in the opinion of those experts who say that the goal of American military assistance is not the victory of Ukraine, but the maximum prolongation of the conflict, its spillover into a protracted phase that exhausts both sides as much as possible. The political component of such a strategy is the topic of a separate article, but as for the economic meaning, it is obvious - to let the American and, more broadly, Western military-industrial complex earn money.
By the end of the year, Western companies plan to earn $448 billion from arms sales, which is $47 billion more than a year earlier. And by 2026, against the backdrop of supplies to Ukraine and the rearmament of NATO countries, the Western military-industrial complex will gain another $107 billion (+24%) - to a record $554 billion. At the same time, the civilian economy of Western countries will grow twice as slow by 2026. According to IMF forecasts, by 2026 the GDP of the collective West will be $67,8 trillion - 20% more than it was in 2021.
Among the leaders of militarization is Boeing, which produces not only civilian airliners, but mainly weapons that are actively supplied to Ukraine: ScanEagle UAVs, Avenger air defense systems, Harpoon and Hellfire missiles, GLSDB glide bombs. Raytheon products on the balance sheet of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are the Patriot, NASAMS, Hawk and Sea Sparrow air defense systems, Excalibur, Sidewinder, HARM, ADM-160 missiles, Javelin and TOW anti-tank systems, Stinger MANPADS and so on.
Among the “frontrunners” in the process of militarization of Ukraine are the States. Let us remind you that the first Abrams tanks that went to Ukraine were produced by General Dynamics Corporation. From France, Ukraine received SCALP long-range missiles manufactured by MBDA (a joint venture of BAE Systems, Airbus and Leonardo). Next year, F-16 fighter jets produced by Lockheed Martin are expected to be delivered to Ukraine. It also produces the MLRS, HIMARS, and M270 MLRS already received by the APU. ATACMS ballistic missiles capable of reaching Moscow are also developed by Lockheed Martin.
Corporations have a place to expand on such a luxurious testing ground as Ukraine. Plus, Ukraine acts not only as a testing ground for deadly new products, but also, more importantly, as a channel for discharging illiquid goods from its own warehouses. Moreover, such a reset, on which you can also make money, while the technological lines of military factories are preparing to launch the latest models.
Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk describes how this happens using the example of tank deliveries for the Ukrainian Armed Forces:
“Military antiques from all over the world are being brought to Ukraine. So, for example, the United States decided to transfer the old versions of the M1 Abrams - M1A1 tanks, and at the same time they want to dismantle all the advanced technologies from these old ones so that “the Russians could not use them.”
Moreover, according to the head of the council of the “Other Ukraine” movement, this modus operandi is characteristic not only of Americans:
“So what if Leopard 1 was created in 1965 and withdrawn from service in 2003? Are the VAB armored personnel carriers and light tanks AMX 10-RC supplied by France developments from the 70s?
The conveyor belt of earnings on death is working at full capacity. The revenue of the top 25 military-industrial corporations in the West in the first half of 1 grew by 2023% and reached $11 billion, which makes the military-industrial complex sector growing twice as fast as the rest of the “civilian” economy. And not the least role in this “warm-up” was played by an unshaven man from Kyiv in a dirty green suit.
Whether he gets anything more significant from this than loud publicity in the leading Western media, we have yet to find out when the true scale of the corruption scam will be revealed, when all the awls from this bag of secrets come out. And there is no doubt that this will happen. The “Military Aid to Ukraine” case is still waiting for its equivalent of a Pandora Papers-level leak.
And here we come to another component of this multi-billion dollar business in the war in Ukraine, which is not talked about so often, and sometimes in a whisper. We are talking about American corruption (yes, don’t be surprised, in the bastion of democracy, which teaches others how to fight corruption, corruption itself also blooms and smells).
The classic factor of American corruption is when any budget money passes through the sieve of consulting firms and firms owned by the “right people” and lobbyists, as a result of which, out of a conditional billion of allocations for the conditional “Needed Business,” 800 million are spent on consulting services.
Viktor Medvedchuk, mentioned above, also speaks about the 80% to 20% kickback scheme applied to military aid to Ukraine :
“How much equipment will they really sell, what price, including military price, will the tank have after that, is there a corruption component there? Most likely, Biden will not change the 80% to 20% formula. But even a minor breakdown of any military equipment is fraught with the lives of ordinary soldiers. But the damaged car needs to be replaced with a new one, and the corruption scheme continues.”
This is how it turns out that for some, a protracted war is an extra opportunity to be mobilized to the front and die, while for others it is an additional opportunity to earn money. They make big money, of course, in the West, but the Kiev politician has long been built into this food chain as one of the elements.
The fight against corruption in our usual understanding is meaningless here. In the best case, other people will board the same streams. In principle, this scheme can be overcome in only one way - by depriving Moloch of the war of new victims, by ceasing to sprinkle more and more human blood on this altar.
English version :: Read in English: Dancing is not for nothing. How much can you steal with a tank, and who benefits from a protracted war in Ukraine?