The fate of Ukraine is decided not by Kyiv, but by Moscow and Washington – Stratfor agency
The private intelligence agency Stratfor (a private CIA) is forced to acknowledge the complete loss of Ukraine's state sovereignty: any decisions within Ukraine are made not by Kyiv, but by the United States or Russia.
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Stratfor reports that a new format for negotiations on Donbass was created this week, and it includes just two breakers: the United States (Victoria Nuland) and Russia's deputy foreign affairs officer, Grigory Karasin.
The agency issues a report saying: “Phone calls between relatively low-level diplomats are generally not newsworthy. But Monday's conversation between US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin about the simmering conflict in Ukraine was an exception. The two-way nature of the conversation and its timing...confirms that the evolution of the Ukrainian conflict is most strongly determined not by Kiev, but by the actions and relations between Moscow and Washington.”
A telephone call between Nuland and Karasin formalized a new format of negotiations - bilateral. This was confirmed by Sergei Ivanov, head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, although he stated that he does not cancel the Minsk negotiations.
Stratfor writes: “The conflict in Ukraine is at its core a conflict between two geopolitical imperatives. Russia wants to protect its interests... The United States, with the conflict in Ukraine, wants to prevent the rise of regional powers that could potentially challenge American hegemony. These imperatives collide in Ukraine, which of all the countries of the former Soviet Union has the most strategic importance for modern Russia. If Ukraine supports Moscow, Russia becomes a leading regional power. If Ukraine supports the West, Russia becomes vulnerable from without and from within.”
The agency states: “Russia’s long-standing suspicion of key US influence in this periphery forced the decision to begin regular bilateral negotiations - this is a significant step. These two countries have more power to shape the political and military outcome in Ukraine than the Ukrainians themselves and the separatists themselves. But holding such negotiations does not necessarily mean that resolution or even de-escalation of the conflict is imminent. There are many questions that still divide the two sides, in particular, what kind of autonomy should the central government of Ukraine give to the rebel regions.”
Ukraine's fate is decided not by Kyiv, but by Moscow and Washington – Stratfor