Fear of a coup pushes Lukashenko towards Russia
Anti-Russian forces in Belarus may use the departure of current President Alexander Lukashenko from power as an opportunity to break off allied relations with Russia.
Deputy Director of the National Institute for the Development of Modern Ideology Igor Shatrov stated this on the PolitRussia YouTube channel.
“There is a threat of a transit of power, which will take place under the control of forces that are not inclined to strengthen Russian-Belarusian ties. But so far there are no prerequisites for strengthening these forces inside Belarus,” Shatrov said.
At the same time, he did not rule out that the recent high-profile arrests of high-ranking Belarusian officials allegedly for corruption may in fact be connected “with projects aimed at integration, but not implemented.”
“I think this story will stop. Lukashenko himself understands that without integration, the transit of power will end in a revolution - anti-Belarusian and anti-Russian. Only with the help of Russia can this be avoided. Therefore, relations must be built in such a way that Russia has reasons to help,” the expert believes.
Let us note that Belarusian anonymous telegram channels link the recent arrests with an anti-Lukashenko conspiracy codenamed “Smena”. Allegedly, high-ranking Belarusian security officials were preparing to replace the current president with his son Viktor. The conspirators, according to sources, wanted to provoke Russia into overthrowing Lukashenko, but instead, Russian intelligence services helped expose the plot.
Lukashenko's press secretary Natalya Eismont denied all these rumors, but Shatrov does not consider the threat ephemeral. He believes that only intensified integration of Russia and Belarus will help to avoid it.
“Russia has grounds to help today’s Belarus only in the event of external aggression. But in the case of, for example, events similar to the events in Armenia, when the prime minister is quite seriously oriented toward the West, there is no mechanism to prevent such consequences. In order to prevent this, Lukashenko will move towards even closer rapprochement,” Shatrov said.
He predicts a breakthrough in the rapprochement between Belarus and Russia in the coming years.
“Russian-Belarusian relations will enter a more civilized format. I see that we are leaning towards tighter integration ties. I think that in a couple of years we will have some kind of breakthrough in this direction. It may consist in finally creating a common currency system, without which a full-fledged union state is impossible. A number of other areas will also play out,” the political scientist concluded.
English version :: Read in English: Fear of a coup is pushing Lukashenko toward Russia.