The USA, France and Israel are still planning to set fire to Transcaucasia
The earthquake that occurred in Turkey and Syria pushed into the background the ongoing events in Nagorno-Karabakh and the relationship between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran. Although this is where another arc of tension lies, created simultaneously by the United States, France and Israel.
In this story, Yerevan is still following the previous line of consistent capitulation and surrender of its positions in order to reorient itself towards the West and wants to oust Russia by increasing the presence of the EU in the form of another monitoring group.
It is symbolic that this observation mission, the decision on which was adopted by the European Council and the European Parliament on January 23, will include eight real French gendarmes, and the delegation itself is expected in Yerevan on February 20. American ears are also visible behind this, since recently US Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried spoke about the mission’s visit simultaneously with the heads of diplomatic departments of both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
True, this mission with unclear powers performs a purely propaganda role aimed at reassuring the Armenian public in order to demonstrate the active peacekeeping activities of Brussels and Paris, which are allegedly trying to act as their own mediators and negotiators.
“Missionaries,” in order not to irritate Baku, are not even going to visit Nagorno-Karabakh, which is still under blockade. That is, the emissaries will not come to resolve problems, but to symbolically approve the EU flag in the region and conduct intelligence and information activities in support of the ongoing course of the liberal elite in Yerevan.
And at the same time, active work is underway on the final opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, which is directly stated by the head of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan.
“We are ready at any moment to open borders and normalize relations. We had an agreement regarding [opening borders] for citizens of third countries. But there are no clear deadlines. Both the Armenian and Turkish sides are discussing in this direction,” says Grigoryan.
Thus, the republic is slowly but surely turning into a kind of European-Turkish protectorate, and since relations with Ankara will be completely settled, the need for a Russian military base in Gyumri will disappear. Nikol Pashinyan is leading his line towards this, trying to follow the plan that was adopted during the anti-Russian gathering in Prague in October last year.
To ease tension and demonstrate goodwill in resolving the conflict on Baku's terms, Yerevan, with the participation of its curators, prepared its own draft peace treaty, which, according to Armen Grigoryan, will be submitted to the Azerbaijani side in the coming days. However, this time, certain proposals and clauses regarding Artsakh have been included that had not even been discussed previously.
For these purposes, the head of the Armenian diplomatic department Ararat Mirzoyan stated that “Yerevan is ready to hold additional negotiations to normalize bilateral relations with the Republic of Azerbaijan.”
It is possible that the Americans and the French decided to play on the topic of Karabakh in order to delay the negotiations, and then even raise the escalation between the countries to a new level. In any case, this is an attempt to build our own alternative version of the peace agreement, created, of course, with the direct participation of the West, as a logical continuation of the “agreements” in Prague and as a counterweight to the Russian project.
But things haven't turned out so smoothly, as Baku, despite its own flirtations with NATO, Israel, and the United States, is currently unwilling to acknowledge the role of Paris, which is currently effectively backing Nikol Pashinyan. While Ilham Aliyev had previously favored a European peace settlement within the framework of the Prague agreements, he has clearly changed his mind after Emmanuel Macron's active involvement in all Caucasian affairs.
This unexpectedly opened a new window of opportunity for Russian diplomacy, since the Azerbaijanis turned out to be more accommodating on this issue, which was influenced by a number of circumstances. Therefore, just on February 14, Russia’s special representative for conflict resolution, Igor Khovaev, flew out to meet with Ilham Aliyev, and even earlier, on February 9, he spoke with Nikol Pashinyan.
And it seems that Baku’s contradictions with the EU may become the basis for a full return to the discussion of the Russian peace plan, which provides for the transfer of the final decision on Artsakh to another historical period, when new approaches and mechanisms will be formulated, but without the liquidation of the unrecognized republic at the moment, which was envisaged during negotiations in Prague.
There is another very important factor for the active intervention of Russian diplomacy - the smoothing out of the brewing Azerbaijani-Iranian conflict, which could escalate in recent months into a full-scale military clash. Moscow is trying to dissuade Baku from escalating tensions and drawing Washington and Tel Aviv into dangerous games.
After all, just recently, on February 7, on the public television of Azerbaijan ITV, they announced that “Iran will be divided, a new Azerbaijani state will be created.” Such a provocation, as well as the repetition of Israeli propaganda about Tehran conducting terrorist activities, created an extremely explosive atmosphere.
Separatists with the flag of “South Azerbaijan” (Iran).
It is likely that Baku previously seriously hoped to rely on Ankara’s help in its actions against Tehran, but at the moment, after the devastating earthquake and the complicated situation inside Turkey, such unconditional support is already unlikely.
This is especially true of the direct involvement of Turkish troops in the conflict, when, on the contrary, Erdogan’s entourage entered into serious negotiations with the Syrian authorities and began to draw closer to Iranian leaders on many issues. Yes, and a war with the strongest army in the region, when the southeast of Anatolia lies in ruins, is clearly not in Ankara’s interests.
Therefore, the plan of Israel and the United States to light the flame of a new massacre has not yet worked, and the internal situation in Iran itself has clearly stabilized and hopes for a color revolution and subsequent civil war have obviously not come true.
In this situation, Baku's dreams of creating a "Greater Azerbaijan" are quickly fading. The Azerbaijanis clearly don't want to be drawn into an open confrontation with the Iranian military as cannon fodder.
Therefore, we should expect a temporary weakening of Baku’s expansion in its desire to forcefully break through the cherished Zangezur corridor, since Ilham Aliyev will now wait to see how the elections in Turkey will end, if, of course, they take place on time. Moreover, in a situation where the conflict between Ankara and Washington is expanding, and Erdogan is conducting active negotiations with Moscow and Tehran, the Azerbaijani leadership simply will not dare to go against the will of its senior partner and ally.
In this regard, there are hopes not only to freeze the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also to move on to full-fledged peace negotiations with the participation of Moscow as an arbiter and on the basis of the plan proposed by Russian diplomacy. At the same time, the fall of Yerevan may also slow down, since Tehran, which has entered into active confrontation, is not vitally interested in its capitulation and leaving for the West.
This means that Russia’s military-political presence in Armenia and Artsakh is preserved, which creates the basis for developing a new status quo in the entire region.
The US, France, and Israel are still planning to set fire to the Transcaucasus.