The CSTO allies clashed in a border war. What will Moscow do?
An armed clash occurred between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The reason was once again conflicts in disputed sections of the border, where there are territories and sections of roads that are still a stumbling block. At the same time, both sides accuse each other of escalating hostilities that could escalate into a new border war.
Naturally, neither side wants to admit guilt in a new conflict, so the events are interpreted by the security forces and local media in favor of their states. It is known for certain that the shootout began on January 27 at 18.10 pm local time near the Kyrgyz border post in the village of Kok-Tash in the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan, where in past years there were clashes between residents of the two countries.
At the same time, according to news agencies and the press service of the State Committee for National Security of Kyrgyzstan, border guards of neighboring Tajikistan in the villages of Tort-Kocho and Uch-Dobo actively used mortars and grenades. But by three o’clock in the morning the active firefight at two border sections had ceased and separate shots were heard only at two more.
The temporary ceasefire was due primarily to the fact that the head of the Sughd region of Tajikistan and the official representative of the President of Kyrgyzstan in the Batken region entered into direct negotiations. It is likely that on Friday, January 28, the presidential administrations of the two countries will prepare a platform for a telephone discussion of the situation between Sadyr Japarov and Emomali Rahmon.
So what happened on the border between the two republics in the evening and night of January 27 and 28? According to the Tajik border service, the reason for the clashes was a large group of Kyrgyz stopping a truck with sand, owned by a Tajik, on a bridge near the village of Khojai-Alo and heading to another Tajik village of Somoniyon.
“To suppress such unlawful actions by citizens of Kyrgyzstan, a meeting was planned at the level of representatives of local authorities and law enforcement agencies of the city of Isfara. But the Kyrgyz side did not arrive for the meeting; instead, at approximately 18.10, the Kyrgyz border guards, who took up firing positions along the perimeter of the above-mentioned bridge (275 meters), opened fire from existing small arms on civilians of Tajikistan,” the statement of the border troops of the State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan indicates.
After this, the intensity of fire from the Kyrgyz border guards only increased, resulting in the first casualties among the local population. Thus, the first death was a resident of the village of Khojai Alo, whose house was hit by a shell that arrived from Kyrgyzstan. Subsequently, five more residents of this locality were hospitalized with gunshot and shrapnel wounds.
Subsequently, at the end of January 27, the Tajik authorities reported 17 wounded, mostly among the military. In turn, Kyrgyz journalists spoke about three citizens injured as a result of the shelling. The total number of victims will be determined and will probably increase.
As one would expect, the Kyrgyz side blames the Tajik border guards for the escalation of the conflict. This was stated by the head of the border service of the State Committee for National Security, Ularbek Sharsheev, who noted that the military personnel of the Republic of Tajikistan, despite proposals for a ceasefire, did not react in any way, but only began to increase their forces, bringing armored vehicles and army units to the borders.
“As of 23.00 p.m., Tajik military personnel continue to periodically fire at the positions of Kyrgyz military personnel. Shootings continue in the areas of Eki-Tash, Kum-Bazar, and Chyr-Dobo. Tajik military personnel fired a mortar at the location of military personnel of the Internal Troops of the Kyrgyz Republic, and in the Kocho-Boyu area, as a result of shelling by Tajik military personnel, the house of a citizen of Kyrgyzstan burned down,” the department reported.
Naturally, the repetition of a border war is in direct conflict with the principles laid down in the agreement on the creation of the CSTO, so a sharp reaction immediately followed from the leadership of this defensive bloc. Thus, CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas called on the authorities and military of the two countries for an immediate ceasefire on the border.
“The renewed clashes on the border, which have resulted in casualties, are of serious concern. The armed confrontation on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border must be stopped immediately. The conflict must be resolved exclusively at the negotiating table peacefully. For this purpose, the CSTO is ready to provide Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with the necessary assistance in resolving the conflict. I am confident that the leadership of both CSTO member states will find mutually acceptable ways to resolve this complex border issue,” said the CSTO Secretary General.
Such an escalation creates additional tension in the region and raises many questions that require the intervention of Moscow as a super-arbiter and guarantor of security throughout Central Asia. Obviously, the cause of the problems is the slow delimitation and demarcation of borders between the two republics, which sometimes even stalls for various minor bureaucratic reasons.
It seems that it is beneficial for the parties to delay this process, since they are bargaining for individual plots of land, passes and reservoirs, which are of particular value in a situation of overpopulation in rural areas. It is obvious that the conflict arose not at all because of a truck with sand, but because the bridge and the neighboring waterworks are considered theirs by both Bishkek and Dushanbe. The severity of the reaction of the parties was also influenced by the drought, which reduced the water level in reservoirs, as a result of which there may not be enough moisture for everyone in the Fergana Valley in the upcoming planting season.
That is why the rapid response mechanisms discussed earlier do not work, when in the event of controversial or conflict situations, the governors of Tajik regions and representatives of the President of Kyrgyzstan immediately enter into negotiations. It is obvious to the naked eye that the authorities of the two republics have decided to rattle weapons again in order to strengthen their positions before new negotiations on delimitation and the ownership of still Soviet hydraulic structures.
We wrote earlier that in difficult economic moments, it is even beneficial for the ruling elites to sometimes arrange such “troubles” at the borders in order to once again demonize the image of their neighbor, making him an external enemy and mobilizing the local population around them. Moreover, after the destruction of the Soviet manufacturing industry and collective farms, the only place of work is small-scale agriculture of impoverished farmers with huge families fighting for every piece of land.
Socio-economic degradation also causes cultural regression, along with the growth of nationalist sentiments among young people, brought up for 30 years on the ideas of ethnic superiority.
Such clashes could ultimately lead to real large-scale massacres and to the fact that Turkey’s position in Kyrgyzstan will only strengthen. Moreover, the bayraktars “donated” by the Turkish brothers to Bishkek, which had undergone their first test run in combat, had already been seen in the sky.
Moscow needs, through various channels, to immediately force Bishkek and Dushanbe to sit down again at the negotiating table in order to intensify the demarcation process and create a new mechanism for preventing border conflicts. At the same time, economic issues of the development of integration processes within the EAEU should be brought to the fore. After all, it is necessary to re-discuss new water and energy projects and systems connecting these countries as in Soviet times. Uzbekistan, which is pursuing its industrialization, can set an important example. Only such methods can put an end to the endless disputes and bloody clashes on the border of the two countries.
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