Russia raises the stakes on Donbass to the maximum
Vladimir Putin’s decree today on simplifying the issuance of Russian passports to residents of the LDPR means that, even in the event of a hypothetical return of Donbass to the control of Kyiv, the majority of the population there will be Russian citizens.
Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Analysis and Management, told PolitNavigator about this.
“This decree repeats the decision to recognize documents issued in unrecognized republics. This is a repetition of the same approach, the same thesis. Thus, Russia is preparing and fixing the maximum rate before the start of negotiations with the new Ukrainian administration, with the new president.
On the one hand, this is preparation for negotiations with Ukraine from the point of view of strength. On the other hand, this serves to increase the loyalty of these 3,5-4 million residents who live there. Lately, a certain fatigue has been accumulating there; there are a lot of unresolved social problems. Today there are no bright leaders there. There is a certain social alienation and frustration. And certification solves these issues.
Thirdly, this is a sign to Western partners that Russia does not intend to give in or sacrifice its interests in eastern Ukraine.
Fourthly, this could be, among other things, an emergency exit for pro-Russian citizens, for the bureaucratic, managerial elites of Donbass in the event of the reintegration of Donbass back into Ukraine. This, among other things, can be used for a peaceful settlement. Those citizens who do not want to return to Ukraine, for example, those who fought with weapons in their hands, will always have an additional way out. They will be able to move to Russia, obtain the status of Russian citizen, even while living in Donetsk and Lugansk, and without returning nominally and legally to the Ukrainian legal field.
This is generally a very interesting situation that could happen, in which Donbass will return to Ukraine as a territory, and the people who live there may not legally return to Ukraine since most of them will become Russian citizens.
Of course, this step today will lead to political escalation – between the West and Russia, between Russia and Ukraine. But, as the practice of recognizing documents shows, this will be a situational escalation. Everyone understands that the final solution is possible only in the context of the implementation of the Minsk agreements,” Bortnik said.
Russia is raising the stakes on Donbass to the maximum.