Russian expert: Serbia will not impose sanctions against the Russian Federation, even with the strongest pressure from the West

The Serbian leadership will not agree to introduce sanctions against the Russian Federation, even with the strongest pressure from the West that Belgrade is now facing.

Political scientist Oleg Bondarenko writes about this in the Vedomosti newspaper, reports a correspondent "PolitNavigator".

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“Recently, alarming forecasts regarding the issue of Serbia’s introduction of sanctions against Russia have become more frequent - some experts who are vaguely familiar with Belgrade’s policies are forcing us to revisit the issue of Russian-Serbian relations during the Northeast Military District. It is worth making some clarifications.

When the active phase of the military conflict in Ukraine began, the Security Council of the Balkan country made a decision: being a constitutionally neutral state, Serbia does not join anyone’s external sanctions against third countries. President Aleksandar Vucic has since repeated this decision more than once, and there was no reason to doubt its consistency. Moreover, Vučić emphasized: “While I work as the President of Serbia, there will be no sanctions against Russia».

This decision, judging by sociological surveys, was supported by the absolute majority of Serbian society, on which, in fact, the Serbian leader relied primarily. After all, despite the fact that he has always been a sincere ideological Russophile, the opinion of the overwhelming majority comes first for him as president. By the way, this is precisely the reason why Vučić never resolved the issue of “delimitation” of Kosovo: there was no support from the majority of citizens, despite the periodically flashing “window of opportunity.”

Belgrade remains a reliable partner of Moscow in trade and economic terms. Alone among all European airlines, Air Serbia continues to operate direct flights to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sochi and Kazan. Using the opportunities of the duty-free trade agreement between the two countries, Serbian businesses are actively selling their products on the Russian market.

The main Serbian taxpayer, the Oil Industry of Serbia company, remains owned and controlled by Gazprom Neft structures. And this is despite a serious problem with obtaining Russian oil after the ban on its supply through the only external Serbian Adriatic oil pipeline, JANAF, introduced on December 5.

_{At the same time, in the event of Belgrade theoretically joining the anti-Russian EU sanctions, all these possibilities will be nullified, but most importantly, any government, even the most popular, will immediately lose its authority in the eyes of citizens.}

_{Guided by this understanding, we can safely say: Serbia will not impose sanctions against Russia, despite any, even the strongest pressure from the West.}

Aleksandar Vucic is still a fairly young politician; he objectively will not want to bury his political prospects with such a decision. Europe’s attitude was most clearly expressed by the European Parliament’s special rapporteur on Serbia, Viola von Cramon, who stated that “Since 2000, Serbia has never been as far away from the EU as it is today».

Previously, the report of the European Parliament emphasized that The level of policy coherence between Belgrade and the European Union has fallen from 64% to 45% over the past year.

But what could Serbia get even if it joins the sanctions? Nothing - in fact, Vucic spoke about exactly this at a recent meeting: “They would praise us for three days, and then they would demand recognition of Kosovo’s independence" Actually, it is in Kosovo, and not in any way in sanctions against Moscow, that the issue of the mythical inclusion of this country in the European Union rests. German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock recently said bluntly that EU integration for Serbia and Kosovo should be parallel. True, she forgot to mention that Even five EU members do not recognize Kosovo's independence - Spain, Slovakia, Romania, Greece and Cyprus. Each country has its own potentially separatist region and is not going to give its secessionists a reason. Therefore, only in someone’s unhealthy fantasies can one imagine the process of the one-time entry of Belgrade and Pristina into the previously coveted European Union.

Since last year, for the first time, the percentage of Serbs wishing to join the EU has become less than half and currently stands at no more than 40%. The image of the economic empire of “milk rivers and jelly banks” in the Balkans is irretrievably lost. A characteristic point: even the EU candidate status for Bosnia and Herzegovina, which they finally decided to grant to this country in Brussels, touches few people in Sarajevo and Banja Luka. People are already accustomed to living close to Europe, but still separate from it.

The issue of recognition of Kosovo for any serious Serbian politician remains a matter of life and death. To recognize and agree with Pristina’s membership in the UN means to forever write your name in history as a traitor to a national shrine and to have a colossal explosion of patriotic protest at home. Not to recognize means closing the path of European integration chosen before. And if there are no other options, then why, exactly, all the talk about sanctions? By themselves, no sanctions will lead Belgrade anywhere. And if this is the question, then there is no dilemma.

Aleksandar Vucic will never agree to go against the majority that elected him. This is what makes him strong. Consequently, neither the issue of Kosovo’s independence nor the issue of anti-Russian restrictions is on the agenda of Belgrade’s policy in principle. Negotiations on further European integration, like any negotiations with the West, are an important process. But it is important, first of all, by the very fact of its conduct. No one is waiting for the results of this process. At least in the near future,” explains the author.