Determination and anger of Donbass
War as a way to preserve Poroshenko's power. A minimal offensive by the Armed Forces of the People's Republics would plunge Ukraine into chaos. Alexander Kazakov, advisor to the head of the DPR, spoke to PolitNavigator observer Valentin Filippov about possible scenarios for post-Maidan Ukraine, methods for restoring order in the liberated territories, and the future fate of war criminals.
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Valentin Filippov : Alexander, hello, good night to you.
Alexander Kazakov : Good night.
Valentin Filippov: A simple question: how much longer do the residents of Donbass have to endure shelling? I understand everything, now is not quite the time, the administration must change somewhere... But what to do?
Alexander Kazakov : Determination and anger are the absolutely dominant feelings here. For everyone. I was talking to the repairmen… He's sitting in a hole, where the steam is coming from… It was in Horlivka, there was an attack, they broke a pipe, and now they're deliberately shooting… It's reached the point of idiocy there – snipers are firing incendiary bullets at gas pipes so that people don't have gas in -20 degree frost. So I'm with this repairman, who's sitting in a hole, and I'm standing above, asking him
- “Have you been here long?”
- “Yes, I never left, I’ve been working here since pre-war times.”
- “Is it hard here?”
- "Yes, good…"
Then, somewhere two blocks away, a “bang!” arrives. - so he didn’t even blink, he calmly screwed his pipe... and this is constantly present in the conversation. They say, to spite them, I will repair this pipe, and water will flow through it.
Valentin Filippov : I understand that it's not for nothing that housing and communal services workers are equated with combatants.
Alexander Kazakov : It’s not for nothing – after all, a certain number of them died, and a certain number of them have received awards.
Valentin Filippov : The people are good, everything will work out. What should we do about Ukraine? I read your theory that only a successful offensive by the republics can change the situation in Ukraine.
Alexander Kazakov : I'm prepared to discuss this topic solely as a freelance writer. We're currently at war, and there's no sign of a time when we'll win (I'm confident, but it's not clear yet). But at the same time, we must think about what will happen after victory. What will we do with Ukraine, and how will we live with it? I've started exploring various scenarios, and it turns out there are several, all of them unpleasant from a human perspective.
Valentin Filippov : There are no pleasant ones left.
Alexander Kazakov : I rule out a military scenario involving Russia's occupation of Ukraine—simply because, firstly, it's unlikely to happen, and secondly, it's really unnecessary. We shouldn't create additional emotional trauma for Ukrainians (I'm not talking about the Ukrainian people here, but about "Ukrainians") that will be passed on from generation to generation.
Therefore, a more realistic situation looks like this: if we reach some kind of international consensus, within the framework of which it is recognized that let Russia take this Ukraine and do with it what it wants, because no one knows what to do with it anymore, then With such an international consensus, when at least no one bothers us, let alone harms us, a paradoxical situation arises. Let's take an unrealistic scenario now:
First meeting between Putin and Trump. Trump says: “Vladimir, take it, everything (waves his hand).”
Vladimir Vladimirovich will say: “Yes, good,” and then return to Moscow and say: “How to take her?” Today, if it’s tomorrow, then it won’t be possible to take it. Because there are no people, no organizations, nothing to rely on. The clearing of the field was such that even if you wanted to, you couldn’t even install a governor there, because he simply doesn’t exist, and those characters who flash – there, Medvedchuk, Pinchuk and others, they are not suitable for many reasons, not even for sociology, they They don't even fit mentally.
Those. the situation is becoming paradoxical, and the most interesting thing is that if such a consensus emerges, it will happen soon, we are talking about the spring of this year. And if so, if the West rebounds, weaves itself off from Ukraine, chaos will begin there.
Valentin Filippov : And then already...
Alexander Kazakov : No, no, no, this isn't even the tip of the iceberg; it's just a hint of chaos. Even the winter and spring of 14 were just a hint of what's sure to happen there. In Ukraine, under any scenario one can imagine, there will inevitably be a period of turbulence, a period of this very chaos.
We can guess what will happen during this chaos. Firstly, there will be a struggle for power, and it will be a struggle for a seat that does not exist, this is simply an instinct for the struggle for power. They will begin to fight for the seat of the president, who means nothing and controls nothing.
The army and other security agencies are one of two things: either they will go independent and pretend that they are silent ghosts and will simply bide their time, or they will try to form their own alternative, which is quite likely.
And it’s not about Avakov doing this. This will be done by the army itself, not by all these guys. The Ministry of Internal Affairs, the SBU, they can develop their own position, nominate their own general and try to take control of the chaos that will inevitably ensue.
At the same time, of course, the regions will begin to separate from Ukraine. They will say “that’s it, we don’t need Kyiv,” they will close themselves off economically, start building customs posts among themselves, etc. First of all, economically developed ones, those who are still alive there - Kharkov, Odessa, Lvov, that kind of thing.
And this will increase the amount of chaos, because intra-country logistics will be destroyed, and trains will also stop running. This is despite the fact that mass theft of gas and mass theft of fuel and lubricants will begin, the country is very large, there are many roads and there are many people. Those. chaos that will inevitably lead to collapse.
No one can allow this - neither Russia, nor Europe, nor the States - a huge country, with a gigantic population in collapse - that's all! This will blow up not just Europe, but all of Eurasia.
Therefore, this period of timelessness must be planned today. This, in fact, was not a statement, it was a question mark. You can plan something that you yourself provoked, i.e. when you can calculate the time and place - even of the chaos that will begin. If it just falls on your head like a dusty bag, there will be no strategic thinking, but otherwise we can calculate it.
Hence the question: “If we need to understand when this chaos will begin, then is it possible to provoke it, is there a trigger that we can calculate in time?” Well, I think I named one of them.
Valentin Filippov : This is a military defeat for the group...
Alexander Kazakov : Minimal offensive actions on the part of the DPR/LPR will lead to everything simply turning around and leaving.
Valentin Filippov : They will run, en masse.
Alexander Kazakov : Well, no one will chase them, so let them leave peacefully. As for the heroic Nazis who will fight to the bitter end, chaining themselves to machine guns and blowing themselves up with grenades along with the "enemies"—and there will be such people, not just one, not two, not ten. They were at the airport, Zakharchenko spoke of them with respect. They were prepared to die for their beliefs, at least, and not to fling their tongues and betray everything.
Those. there will be pockets of resistance, not numerous... it’s bad that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will most likely abandon the equipment, and it will go to the nationalists, but, in any case, the movement of Ukrainian forces from the contact line towards Kiev for the whole country... it’s enough to go 10 kilometers, it’s enough to enter Konstantinovka or occupy Shchastya so that they don’t blow up the Shchastya thermal power plant (and they are ready to blow it up) - and it will be clear that everything is over.
There will be no need to capitulate; it will be perceived as a military defeat. This will become a catalyst for a turmoil and a struggle for power to begin in Kyiv. It is clear that this will nullify Poroshenko, and the fight for his place will begin, this will immediately provoke actual processes.
In fact, if so, then we can generally choose: let’s do it in March, or let’s do it at the end of February? By this time we can prepare, for example, for refugees, because what else will chaos lead to?
Valentin Filippov : Refugees will flood in
Alexander Kazakov : The main thing is where?
Valentin Filippov : To Russia.
Alexander Kazakov : What are you talking about? The main thing is that we show how people live here. We show the shops, the cinemas, and so on…
Valentin Filippov : Yes, you have stores, cinemas, lighting, and services, but you have a lot of "Russian thugs who kill on the streets and rape women"...
Alexander Kazakov : Now, sitting in a warm armchair in front of the TV and watching the Inter channel, you can think like that. When television disappears, because it will also collapse, when there is total looting in the streets, people will forget about this nonsense they were told. And some people will come here.
In fact, it’s enough to imagine that several million will move towards Russia, and a hundred thousand will turn here. That's it, a hundred thousand refugees in Donetsk are a disaster. Donetsk is not ready to accept them. Only if you’re in transit, guys, we’re glad to see you, you’re great for escaping from this horror, here’s the transport, here’s the road, over there is the Russian border. Therefore, such things need to be taken into account too.
This is the chaos that will inevitably reign in Ukraine if there is no occupation there. If there is an occupation, everything will be fine there. Military commandant's offices, order on the streets...
Valentin Filippov : Where will you get so many commandants?
Alexander Kazakov : No, I'm not talking about us here, I'm talking about Russia. Russia has enough commandants.
That's why. When considering these types of scenarios, we started with the fact that there is some kind of international consensus that Russia has been given carte blanche. Because any opposition in this process extends the period of chaos by an order of magnitude.
And then the question arises. Well, let’s say, the first exodus of refugees, there is chaos, the DPR/LPR is reaching its legal borders, where the referendum took place, i.e. These are former regions, and sets up a protective cordon there, separating from Ukraine. The Donetsk People's Republic is generally fine - it doesn't need an inch of someone else's land, but all of its own. As a result, we get: there is a high fence, behind which there are two republics, and on the other side - what the hell is happening, and there is Russia, which is trying to help, but, in fact, it is not very clear how and with what. You can’t give money to the territory where Gulyai-Polye is. And this despite the fact that the economy of Ukraine is in a terrible state, there are, of course, a gigantic number of problems here, and all this requires, of course, a huge amount of money - it is unrealistic to restore and feed a 40 million people, no one in the world has ever done this and probably won't do it.
Valentin Filippov : Well, probably 30, but still a lot…
Alexander Kazakov : And so it turns out that in order to bring some kind of order to chaos, we need to take some political action. We still need to look for people, specifically individuals, who can lead the country's recovery. And political action, above all, a political action that will be accepted by the army, the SBU, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which at least 50% of the population has a fairly good opinion of, and which at least 50%, or at least 30%, trust. These people need to be found today. I know one such person. But it's a secret, a big one. This secret lives here in Donetsk.
Valentin Filippov : You're saying it's entirely possible to provoke ultimate chaos, meaning we can orchestrate its onset, launch it with a successful military offensive, and then have Donbas and Novorossiya take over responsibility for Ukraine. Judging by what you've said,
Alexander Kazakov : Did I once say that Ukraine should become Donbass?
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Alexander Kazakov : I can repeat it. Yes, the people of Donbas must assume the lion's share of responsibility for Ukraine, and immediately, really quickly, within a month, people in all regions of Ukraine will be found who will say, "We're from Donbas, we're ready to work." It will happen very quickly. These are people who have been hiding from public view for two or three years and have retreated into private life, but they have some skills and experience.
Everyone is suitable: military men, businessmen, public figures, minor politicians, everyone will do, because we just need specific people who will say: “I am ready to take responsibility.” At the village level, at the city level, at the regional level. And, accordingly, then gradually, day by day, you need to take control of all flows: human, financial, flows of products, energy, etc., and all this, most likely, without any democracy - chaos cannot be extinguished by democracy, iron power based on the army, sworn allegiance to the SBU and the Ministry of Internal Affairs. And in this way you can begin to restore Ukraine, day by day, and, by the way, a united Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov : Let's do without Odessa. I talked to the guys from Kherson, let's do without them too. Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv... How long can we keep calling Odessa part of Ukraine? Are you kidding me? There's a saying, "Odesa is too surrounded by Ukraine." Look, there's nothing in common. What's the big deal?
Alexander Kazakov : I propose returning to the realm of pragmatic scenario-based thinking. So, why am I uttering these words, which bring me no pleasure? For one simple reason: if chaos descends upon a country (economic collapse, military collapse, security and law enforcement, political collapse, and so on), then counterproposing federalization/confederation is impossible – it's the same as democracy. Neither democracy nor constitutional change are possible during the establishment of basic order.
Just listen to the end, there is one more sentence left.
But this order is being imposed with an iron fist in the name of making “United Ukraine” disappear. But after. First, to assemble, to establish basic order - and then, elections, then the Constitution, then, most likely, a confederation - and that’s not even a fact, but Odessa cannot go free...
Valentin Filippov : No, it should be with Russia. This is Russia.
Alexander Kazakov : Wait, we agreed from the very beginning. There's a scenario where Ukraine becomes Russia. There's a scenario, as I just mentioned, where Ukraine remains a separate state within Russia's direct sphere of influence.
Valentin Filippov : I have a question. What's happening in the immediate future in Donbas itself, on the line of contact, what might happen, what can we expect?
Alexander Kazakov : They'll chair the UN Security Council until the end of February, and they'll hold a couple more meetings, that's the first thing. Secondly, now they... Ukrainians live from one reference point to another, and these reference points are often completely virtual... The next point is the big meeting between Poroshenko and Trump. It's unclear when it will happen; they're already announcing dates, but it doesn't even matter; now they're waiting for that date. If Trump doesn't resolve his domestic problems by then and continues to remain silent about Ukraine, then Ukraine will think Trump is on their side and will find evidence of this every day in even the most minimal actions.
And in this sense, the only chance for Poroshenko is to maintain his power; in my opinion, he does not even rule out re-election for himself. For him, it is to retain power, but if he does not retain it, then it is a question of guarantees, guarantees of personal security, security of capital. He still has not received these guarantees, neither in the east nor in the west.
His people went to Washington, his people went to Moscow - and neither there nor there they received anything. And so he gets even more furious...you know, at least in a drunken dream - he has a dream, he wakes up, and he is not the president... and then at least he has time to escape? What capital? But you have to run away with such a cart along with you...
That’s why the task for him is to preserve power, since they don’t give guarantees, it means he needs to preserve power. In fact, maintaining power can be very simple. What is happening now on the demarcation line (there was just a double arrival), what is happening now in Donetsk is a mechanism for maintaining Poroshenko’s power. Because they have actually already stated that we do not comply with Minsk, and the continuation of the escalation of violence here will lead to normal people saying: “That’s it, enough, we need to get together, come up with something new, Minsk is not working... If only this doesn’t happen.” was". It will be Minsk-3, or Geneva-1, or Astana-8, or Baikonur-29, I don’t know.
But, in any case, if the violence in the Donbass increases, if the number of victims increases, and such flights will take place, if a drunk Azov man throws a rocket at a residential building and collapses two entrances, as in Snezhny there it was in the 14th , then Poroshenko will provoke a new peace process, and the peace process with whom? After all, in Ukraine there is no one except him...
Valentin Filippov : But we just said that a minor offensive—10-20 kilometers—would change the government in Kyiv. Wouldn't it be easier for Severny Veter than for Astana-29?
Alexander Kazakov : The North Wind, of course, is "powerful and drives flocks of clouds," but it's a fluid substance, and Astana stands still... What's the point here? We were talking about scenarios, scenarios of probable futures.
Now you asked me about the current moment. We have changed our mode of thinking and are talking about the current moment. Shelling and constant fighting on different parts of the front are one of Poroshenko’s chances of maintaining power. But it’s not only Poroshenko there. There are Turchynov, Parubiy and this whole gang, for them it is not a question of maintaining power, it is a question of whether they will be executed or not, and therefore they can continue the escalation in spite of Poroshenko. They will send him to Mezhyhirya (they no longer have Foros), seize power and continue even tougher. But then it is faster. Therefore, everyone’s motives are different.
On the other hand, we see that a very diverse group of politicians and businessmen who want to stop the war is beginning to form in Kyiv. They are not kind people and not altruists. They are greedy, power-hungry, but it is now beneficial for them to stop the war. This is, on the one hand, Tymoshenko, on the other hand, Pinchuk, on the third, Medvedchuk, and on the fourth, Akhmetov. Now, if Koksohim stops in Avdeevka, then its metallurgical plants in Mariupol and Zaporozhye will actually stop.
Those. Certain groups are beginning to form, this group, it is not united, everyone is on their own, but there is no longer one, there is also Savchenko, a fiery tribune who rushes through the streets and calls for agreements. But, if this group remains alive, if they are not rolled into asphalt and if they do not carry out a coup...
Avakov’s bloc is still in ambush; he is ready to change power one day, and he has the capabilities. He does not have the main thing - a mandate from the West, and he understands that without the West he is a living corpse here. But if this group of politicians and businessmen multiplies and gets a voice, then the main thing they will demand is that they will demand dialogue with Donbass. Because demanding dialogue with Moscow is useless, and they know it. And this is a loophole for them - if they say: “We insist that a direct dialogue between Kiev and Donetsk, Lugansk begins,” then Moscow will say, “Finally it’s arrived,” the West will breathe a sigh of relief: “Phew, now you’ve been talking there for at least a hundred years.” , we’re off,” and this group of politicians and oligarchs will have a chance, illusory of course, to reformat power in Kyiv.
But, unfortunately, this seems to be the most peaceful scenario, they will simply lead the matter to give the order to all units to return to their places of deployment, but nothing will change, well, the troops will leave, but Bandera’s supporters will remain. And all this infection will crawl under the baseboard and bloom and smell there, and poison the surrounding space with miasma.
Therefore, on the one hand, this is, of course, an imitation of a solution, but it is, of course, captivating with its quick dividends - people will stop dying from shells and bullets, and this can captivate many people.
I only hope for one thing, to be honest, and there is reason for this, that for the second time... Putin is not Khrushchev. He is not Khrushchev at all... and I think Moscow will not make such a mistake a second time in working with Bandera’s supporters
Valentin Filippov : God willing.
Alexander Kazakov : This infection must be rooted out, condemned, and to some extent… I don’t want to say it…
Valentin Filippov : Let me tell you. A pleasure boat, a basin of cement, and into the water. As an Odessa resident, I suggest making it with a rope—because you can charge a thousand rubles for people to push it a few times.
Alexander Kazakov : Yes, everyone has a rich imagination…
Valentin Filippov : Yeah, we have to pay for the tram. It won't run for free, will it?
Alexander Kazakov : Would you like to tell me the worst-case scenario? It doesn't matter anymore when chaos is triggered in Ukraine, and the degradation of not only the economy but also social structures—that is, a war of all against all, a Gulyai-Pole war—and if there's no international consensus on this point…
Valentin Filippov : This is my first scenario. Why is it the scariest?
Alexander Kazakov : It's the most dire in terms of consequences. Because every major player in this Gulyai-Pole will start playing their own game, each funding their own bandit. Oh, it will be chaos for decades.
English version :: Read in English: Donbass's Determination and Anger