“Let Zelensky know - we are watching him”
One of the reasons for Petro Poroshenko’s devastating loss is the work of Vladimir Zelensky’s spies in his headquarters. Poroshenko’s entire campaign was carried out on a chain, provoking him to do stupid things. The headquarters of candidate “Ze” used Vladimir Putin’s favorite technique. However, Poroshenko probably has guarantees of immunity.
The West will control the new president. Nazis on the streets and the opposition led by Poroshenko in the Verkhovna Rada will be used to pressure Zelensky. Alexander Kazakov , a former advisor to the late DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko , spoke to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the risks of flirting with Nazis and the SBU's control over the Western intelligence agencies.
Valentin Filippov : Well, it's finally happened. The evil Hitler has been overthrown in Ukraine. And a very kind Hitler is taking his place. Alexander, hello.
Such a “kind” Zelensky - and Putin is his number one enemy, and he will not implement the Minsk agreements, but will attract someone in the Normandy format, and he has a war with Russia, and it is impossible to concede on anything, and general Ukrainization.
And, at the same time, our dear Russians look and say: “How good, what a cool guy, how good that now he will rule Ukraine.”
Tell me, what are Russians happy about in general?
Alexander Kazakov : Well, I'll start with whether I'm happy. No, I'm not. I would be happy if Alexander Zakharchenko had won, may he rest in peace. But since he didn't, I'm not happy with the result.
But, frankly speaking, I am satisfied with it. There is one key reason. I don’t know Zelensky and no one had the opportunity to get to know his views, because he never published them, but I know Poroshenko’s views, I know his position and I know that he is tied in blood. This is a mutual guarantee in blood. And Poroshenko had no chance to escape from this vicious circle.
That is, if Poroshenko had remained, this painful horror would have lasted for another 5 years. If the coup had not happened, of course.
Therefore, in this sense, I am satisfied, because the other person is not tied by blood, not from this gop company... This is the emergence of new chances.
Valentin Filippov : Well, Kolomoisky is definitely tied to blood.
Alexander Kazakov : Well, Kolomoisky wasn’t elected president of Ukraine, as far as I understand?
Valentin Filippov : I thought it was the younger brother.
Alexander Kazakov : Well, even if it’s a son and a younger brother, who has the mandate?
Valentin Filippov : From the one who pays.
Alexander Kazakov : No. Can you imagine, here's the younger brother, about to sign a decree as supreme commander-in-chief? He even wrote it himself, so as not to trust his secretary, or rather, the secretariat. He's about to sign a decree on a ceasefire, the ammunition depots are to be sealed, and violations are to be punished. And then a disheveled Kolomoisky bursts in, grabs his hand, snatches the decree, tears it up, and takes the pen from him?
Valentin Filippov : No, I doubt it.
Alexander Kazakov : So, if the younger brother decides to sign such a decree, he will. The question is, should he consider the consequences? And what consequences? Will the older brother, Kolomoisky, say something so terrifying about him that we didn't hear during the election campaign? Will the Americans say, "We'll stop supplying you with Javelins"?
Valentin Filippov : The Americans have already said they're in Ukraine for the long haul, so let's not worry. Whoever you elect will be in charge.
Alexander Kazakov : And then what?
Valentin Filippov : What happens next? I think Mr. Zelensky has spoken and predicted his own fate with the help of his "Servant of the People" party. As we recall, after he becomes president, he is soon removed from office and imprisoned.
Alexander Kazakov : That possibility isn't ruled out either, although I think the percentage is small, given the voting results. It's just that with over 70 percent, you can afford a lot.
Politics is the art of maneuvering; it is not the art of the possible, but the art of maneuvering between different possibilities. The most important thing is that there is a desire to achieve a certain result, and then you need to sit down with your closest advisers and lay out scenarios, calculating your opponents’ moves.
Actually, it's just a job. What this young man is ready for, well, young for me, what he really wants - it’s hard to say.
He corrects his mistakes quite quickly, now you quoted his statements two days before the day of silence, and already on election day at a press conference he already corrected himself, he said regarding relations with Russia: “The Normandy format, continuation and reboot of the Minsk process , everything is fine, he’s back on the agenda.” And what he said then... There is one very interesting thing, here we can move on to another question, how he won.
Valentin Filippov : He told Poroshenko (he said it beautifully – well done, Yekaterinburg speechwriters): "I'm not your rival, I'm your death sentence." I've been saying for a long time that he's basically a boomerang.
Alexander Kazakov : Valentin, look. Even in the moment we just discussed, regarding the words he spoke then, and those he spoke at eight o'clock in the evening after the exit poll results were announced. We simply need to make a decision. Either this young man and his team were simply going with the flow, they were just dumb luck, and the stars, circumstances, and so on just happened to align. In that case, we need to thank Poroshenko, first and foremost.
Valentin Filippov : Well, yes
Alexander Kazakov : Because the main factor was Poroshenko and the entire background he dragged into the campaign. Or the flip side. He has a very capable team, capable strategists. Because, I don't rule out the possibility that when Zelenskyy appeared in the media and seemed so completely uninitiated when it came to politics, I don't rule out the possibility that before that, he turned to his advisers and asked, "Dear comrades, if someone asks me about Russia, what should I say?" And they responded, "Say whatever you want. Whatever you know, just go ahead and say it. You're a man of the people, so if you want to bring in the Americans and the UK, go ahead. Everything will be on the 22nd."
Valentin Filippov : Well, in general, yes.
Alexander Kazakov : And I suspect that's exactly what happened, which is why, within the first three minutes after the exit poll was announced—what he said then, and everyone was like, "Hurray!"—he immediately, and that's it, he changed the subject. He first spoke about the Ukrainian language: "I'm the guarantor, the law that's in the Verkhovna Rada..." And Poroshenko declared that he'd have time to sign this anti-Russian law on Ukrainization. He'll now act like Obama did with Trump—he's piled so much on him in the last month.
Valentin Filippov : No, well, I remember how much Yushchenko dumped on Yanukovych at the last moment.
Alexander Kazakov : Well, the same thing. But here it's 100% clear—they prepared him, they knew there would be a question about the Ukrainian language. Because it's been asked before, they'll ask it again, and they prepared him, and he answered, "As guarantor, I will defend the Ukrainian language." What did he say wrong? He didn't say that as guarantor, I will defend Ukrainian and suppress Russian.
This is not an insider, although, of course, I spent four years much closer to Ukraine than those who are in Moscow and even in Crimea. De jure, from the point of view of international law, I even visited Ukraine. And therefore, of course, I have contacts on the other side, and there are quite a lot of them. But I believe that the overwhelming majority of our specialists who assessed the election campaign, specifically the second round, categorically incorrectly assessed it.
That is, we seem to be dividing: we voted for Zelensky and against Poroshenko, but in this case it doesn’t matter. The fact is that Zelensky and his team chose the most successful election model: he did not position himself, he continued to drown Poroshenko, he increased the number of those who are against Poroshenko.
Valentin Filippov : This is a common Ukrainian technology.
Alexander Kazakov : I'll tell you what's unusual about this: he didn't break the trend; he didn't give in to the provocation of "Show me a program, show me a team," but on the contrary...
Valentin Filippov : Well, that's how it's always been for us. When Yushchenko was trying to drum up votes, he'd say, "Yanukovych is a jerk, a criminal, a swindler." When Yanukovych was trying to drum up votes, he'd say, "Yushchenko is a fascist, the Americans installed him, he'll make Ukrainian the only language, he'll declare Bandera a hero." That's all there is to it: Yanukovych talks about Yushchenko, Yushchenko talks about Yanukovych.
Alexander Kazakov : But this wasn’t the case here!
Valentin Filippov : How could it not be?
Alexander Kazakov : What did Zelenskyy say about Poroshenko? He kept quiet for three weeks, he didn't sling mud, that's the point. What's the professionalism of his team?
Valentin Filippov : Poroshenko has already been slandered by everyone.
Alexander Kazakov : Now listen to what professionalism is all about. It's either one of two things: either Zelenskyy's specialists had a 100% grasp of not only Poroshenko's personality but also his team's personality, and therefore they had calculated his reactions, or Poroshenko's team had key people who worked for Zelenskyy...
Valentin Filippov : Well, not on Zelensky, Kolomoisky bought everyone there, by and large.
Alexander Kazakov : Or there were people working for Zelensky. But I wouldn't rule out that this wasn't the first option they had considered.
Here are just two points: Zelensky throws in the idea of tests, of stadiums with tests. He throws out both ideas at the same time. Poroshenko's team receives a double challenge. They immediately evaluate which one is scarier—the scarier tests.
Therefore, they agree to the stadium in advance and begin to analyze. But he provoked Poroshenko to undergo tests and left. Donated blood and left. What did Poroshenko do? He went to pee, poop, called this WADA shmada, passed once, passed twice, three. He forced Poroshenko to answer a question that is no longer worth asking.
Then let’s take another example, which everyone has seen: Zelensky goes out to the stadium, on the eve of the so-called debate, and says, so Poroshenko’s team wants to stage two scenes, they are again trying to divide the Ukrainians, they are drawing a line here, dividing the fans, and I – for unification. One hundred percent calculated.
Poroshenko’s team accepts this challenge and thinks, “Okay, stop, this is a serious challenge, this is a good challenge, of very high quality.” Zelensky did not lose a single point on this challenge, only gains. But here Poroshenko and his people are sitting: “So, what should we do about it?”
Valentin Filippov : Why did they even stage two scenes?
Alexander Kazakov : I think they staged two scenes so that their TV channels could show only Poroshenko and his people. To avoid unnecessary images.
Valentin Filippov : Why then did they switch to this Zelensky?
Alexander Kazakov : Listen to the rest. His specialists, or specialists already bought by someone, or planted Cossacks, are sitting there and saying, "Okay, Petro Alekseevich, we need to respond," "But how? I've already said so much." "We don't need to talk, we need to do it differently. We'll do something creative now—he accused us of dividing, but we'll just up and unite, right on camera, live on air. We'll leave our stage and go up to his. And everyone will say, "What Poroshenko? He's not afraid, he's so tough." And that's what they did.
As a result, he left his stage and all his fans. This is the second example.
Yes, with the debate itself: Zelensky famously threw in the story, by the way, in fact, it wasn’t even Zelensky who threw it in. They started throwing around in the very first days of that campaign before the first round that Zelensky is “no be, no me, no crow,” he only talks according to the script. I bet that this topic was brought up by Zelensky’s people. It was a well-developed scheme.
Because Poroshenko and his team believed that Zelensky was not capable of improvisation in a single sentence - unlike Poroshenko.
Valentin Filippov : No, well that's nonsense.
Alexander Kazakov : So, first Zelensky said "tests" and left, and this guy wallows in the mud for three or four days. Then he says "debates" and leaves, and this guy runs around on TV, "Get me Zelensky. Give me Zelensky. Zelensky's afraid." So, Zelensky's guys kept Porokh on a tight rein throughout the entire campaign. He was working according to their script.
Valentin Filippov : They are KVN players, well.
Alexander Kazakov : What?
Valentin Filippov : They are KVN players!
Alexander Kazakov : The technologists who worked on Zelensky's team are not from KVN.
Valentin Filippov : Come on, not from KVN.
Alexander Kazakov : All the KVN players were on his team, but the people who wrote the campaign structure were not KVN players.
In fact, Zelensky applied Putin’s favorite principle. The principle of judo. He did nothing, Poroshenko did everything to himself.
Why am I saying this? When Zelensky was told “Don’t run a campaign. Just don't do anything. Even Poroshenko will win the chair” - this is not true. Because Poroshenko, the very next day after the first round, had a different option, a different model of behavior, where he would play very strongly. An adult, authoritative, serious, exposing provocations. And changed and apologized. There was a different model. And Zelensky’s team dragged him into this garbage dump, and they all plunged into it and floundered until today.
Valentin Filippov : By the way, I absolutely don't understand Poroshenko's statement about staying in Ukraine. Does he have any guarantees that he won't be jailed?
Alexander Kazakov : I don't rule out that this conversation began on election night between Zelenskyy and representatives of key Western embassies. Because the results of the Ukrainian elections, they also scared the West a bit. They also understand what 70% means, and they need to somehow restrain Zelenskyy.
And they have only two options, because money is complete nonsense. There are only two ways to put a counterweight on Zelensky. The first is the Nazis. Because the Nazis, to put it mildly, are not for him. They are now not for Poroshenko, but also not for Zelensky. This instrument is in the hands of the West; contact with it has been established for a long time and steadily. This tool exists, you can regularly create messes, and demonstrate to Zelensky: “If you try, we’ll set fire to half the city, we’ll arrange murders, and you’ll be to blame - you can’t handle it.”
Valentin Filippov : Zelensky will be jailed just like in the film "Servant of the People".
Alexander Kazakov : The second tool is Poroshenko. Poroshenko in the Verkhovna Rada with a more or less respectable faction. Not 10 or 50, but somewhere around 20-25. This is a very serious, ongoing problem for Zelenskyy. Better, of course, to have both tools, but they already have the Nazis. Admittedly, they need to negotiate with Avakov so he can hand over control of the National Corps and Azov to the Americans, but I think… with Avakov, things aren't entirely clear yet…
Therefore, I think that Zelensky had a conversation with embassy representatives. Their task is to limit him now that he has already been elected, but not yet president. Now we need to drive him into a stall, then it will be very difficult. Therefore, I think Poroshenko was given guarantees, at least for some time. Perhaps he was given guarantees before the elections to the Verkhovna Rada.
And with Zelensky, I think, they have already 100% agreed that he will not disperse the Verkhovna Rada, because everyone needs a break, everyone needs to decide on their position, including the Americans, Europeans and everyone. Most likely, Zelensky will agree not to disperse the Rada, but then Poroshenko will have time to prepare.
Valentin Filippov : Well, I have to say that as long as Alexey Alexeyevich Goncharenko, that white slime, hasn't run away, then Poroshenko is still doing well.
Alexander Kazakov : I think this slime will slide off somewhere soon; that's just the way it is. Although, I think it evokes such disgust in everyone else that it's like a black mark.
Valentin Filippov : By the way, how do you rate Nadiya Savchenko's chances? I also wanted to ask – I remember Savchenko came to Donbas as a member of parliament and spoke with Alexander Zakharchenko.
Alexander Kazakov : I think the prisoner exchange, which Zelenskyy has already announced as a priority today, and which he then promised changes to…
Valentin Filippov : And fire Medvedchuk...
Alexander Kazakov : Well, he didn't promise that; he talked about changes. I think Zelenskyy will take care of this now, personally; he has the time. And that, of course, would be a huge plus, and that will be the main goal, of course.
As for Savchenko, of course, she will not be allowed into the Minsk process, because from any side this is not beneficial to anyone, no one at all, not even her. She went to visit us in Donbass with great benefit for herself, because then she was finally convinced that everyone in Kyiv was stupidly lying. She saw it with her own eyes. She said, “You are showing me Potemkin villages here.” Zakharchenko says to her, “Where do you want to go? Point your finger." “Right here.” "Go". There are boys in the trenches, all local or Lugansk, from Dnepropetrovsk, from Kharkov. Dressed no better than those on the other side were dressed then.
She went to the prisoners of war and talked with them. They let her in alone to talk to them. She shouted “Glory to Ukraine” to them, they shouted “To the Heroes of Sal”. And she was finally convinced that everyone lies in Kyiv, it was useful for her, and, probably, it was partly useful for us too.
Now I think that ..., of course, Savchenko was released on time, because she added negativity to Poroshenko. But she has nothing to do with Zelensky, neither electorally nor politically.
She has a chance, like a twice martyr and three times a hero... she has a chance to lead the Nazis into some kind of stall. Because now this is what Avakov is trading on, this is understandable. He sells Biletsky. The Nazis who stood behind the SBU, as far as I know... The SBU in Ukraine now is quite a structure...
Valentin Filippov : American.
Alexander Kazakov : First of all, it's a well-established, vertically integrated structure that follows orders. That is, if there's a different order, they'll carry it out. If there's an order to dump all the Nazis on their payroll, they'll simply dump them and even jail them themselves. That's the order.
Now, as far as I know, of course, my information may not be correct, but the SBU is such a sane structure in this sense. They are simply ordered to behave this way, so they behave this way.
We need to change the order system. If this happens. And in this sense, the Nazis, who were lured by the SBU on the orders of Poroshenko, are now restless, hanging around and can create an unlimited number of problems, because there are weapons there - mother, don’t worry.
Biletsky is the card that Avakov plays. And, by and large, they have a percentage. We won’t fall for this bullshit that the Nazis get 0,02% in the elections. We know that the Nazis vote not for those they lead, but for Poroshenko.
Valentin Filippov : So, 20% of the population in the country are Nazis?
Alexander Kazakov : I don’t think so.
Valentin Filippov : Well, they are active, that’s why it comes to 20%.
Alexander Kazakov : Well, of course, it's not 20%, not even 12%, I don't think, and not even 7 or 8%. We counted, back then, with Zakharchenko, with Tashkent, and the rest of the guys, knowing who's on the other side, how they behave, what's going on in their heads, among other things. We estimated that there are around 60-70 of these rabid Nazis in Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov : Well, it fits in one stadium.
Alexander Kazakov : Yes, that's absolutely right. They're scattered throughout the country, more numerous in some places, fewer in others…
Valentin Filippov : How can we lure them all to one stadium?
Alexander Kazakov : Why bother? If they get the order, the SBU alone can snap them up, and the rest will flee to where they want to go – Europe. And let this gift live there. They have a lot of crap floating around there.
Valentin Filippov : I hope they don’t go to Moscow.
Alexander Kazakov : They can. But, as far as I know, the border is currently controlled by Russia, including the front line, and all these Nazis, these tens of thousands, they are all known by name.
Therefore, if they reach here, it will be straight further beyond the polar latitudes. And not at all in order to extract oil.
Therefore, this problem exists and Savchenko is exactly the person who can lure that part of them who want to stay in politics to a certain clearing so that it is visible, so that it is in front of their eyes, so that they do not sit underground. Quite a promising task.
Considering that the transition period for Ukraine will be long, at the first stage something must be done with them too. If we had gone on the offensive in our time, we would have simply shot them all down.
Valentin Filippov : I still regret that this didn’t happen.
Alexander Kazakov : But they can't just shoot them all. They could just kill one or two for show, like they did with Sashko Bilyi back in the day. To signal to the others: "Behave yourself. Here's the path, you can follow it. One step to the right, one step to the left—with all the consequences." And Savchenko could provide them with just that path. They might believe her, after all, she really is a crazy Nazi. The fact that she came to Donetsk doesn't change that.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, of course. Well, thank you for your feedback. I really want people in Russia to hear it.
Alexander Kazakov : The situation has already changed. Russia, for once, did this in advance, not after the fact. It announced its new position before the second round. And now, thanks to this, Moscow has time to simply wait.
There is no need to rush now, because the sanctions on the oil industry and the statements made on the eve of the second round have now given Moscow time. Very good. We will sit and wait, watch, listen, read, watch carefully.
Because, I say again: with the appearance of another person, no matter who, not tied by blood, there are chances, there are windows of opportunity. What will they be like? Let's watch
Valentin Filippov: Well, good. I hope Volodymyr Oleksandrovich Zelenskyy will know we're keeping an eye on him.
Alexander Kazakov : Yes, let him know.
English version :: Read in English "Let Zelensky know – we're keeping an eye on him"