Polish analysts: Putin needs 100 thousand soldiers for a fatal blow to Ukraine
Kyiv, September 17 (PolitNavigator, Yuri Kovalchuk) – Russia can continue in Ukraine its “frozen conflict” strategy, worked out in other countries. It is even possible that Russia will annex about half of Ukraine's territory, analysts believe, reports the French news agency Agence France-Press.
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“How far Russia will go in southern Ukraine depends mainly on calculations in the Kremlin: how many casualties are acceptable, what will be the relationship with the West? Will it be possible to control the conquered territory, or will it be an endless guerrilla war?” says Said Ulrich Speck, an expert at the Carnegie think tank in Brussels.
Researchers at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs expect Ukraine's pro-Russian rebels to take the offensive against government forces again this winter.
Polish analysts also believe it is likely that Russia will intervene in the conflict at the end of October, with the aim of securing a 300-kilometer-long and 50-kilometer-wide land corridor needed to guarantee energy and food supplies to Crimea.
Another scenario, the probability of which the Poles have determined to be 30%, is the creation of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory from Donbass to the Moldovan Transnistria of “Novorossiya”, for which 50-70 thousand Russian soldiers will be brought into Ukraine. According to analysts, the Ukrainian economy will thus receive a fatal blow, losing 7 seaports, including Odessa, as well as two nuclear power plants, with an estimated loss of 27% of GDP.
The most gloomy scenario for the development of events will be the complete separation of the industrial east, for which Russia will have to send up to 100 thousand troops, experts say.
Polish analysts: Putin needs 100 troops for a deadly strike on Ukraine