“It is naive to expect that this will not happen,” - the former head of the PMR Foreign Ministry about the strengthening of the blockade by Kiev and Chisinau
Tiraspol - Kyiv, December 01 (PolitNavigator, Sergey Stepanov) - The main result of the elections in Moldova is the even greater dependence of the Moldovan authorities on the West. Now we can predict the inevitable increase in pressure from Kyiv and Chisinau on Transnistria, Vladimir Yastrebchak, who headed the PMR Foreign Ministry in 2008-2012, said in an interview with PolitNavigator.
Subscribe to PolitNavigator – Kyiv news on Facebook , Odnoklassniki , or VKontakte
“PolitNavigator”: How do you assess the results of the elections in the Republic of Moldova, where in terms of the number of deputies, pro-Western forces retain the majority? What was the main sensation and disappointment of the campaign for you? How honest was she? What developments in Chisinau and the configuration of the coalition do you predict?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: The election results, to some extent, confirmed the idea that any sociology is powerless in Moldova's situation, largely because citizens often prefer not to discuss their actual electoral preferences. The results were unexpected, primarily due to the high percentage of votes cast for the PSRM—the ruling coalition's actions ultimately allowed the Socialists to become the sole opposition force.
As for the main sensation and, accordingly, disappointment, both are connected with Renato Usatii - his rise was probably the main sensation, and the shameless, third dismissal of the party he led a few days before the elections is the main disappointment, because I personally believed that the Moldovan authorities would not agree to such open discrediting of the European values they so loved.
It is difficult to judge the integrity of the campaign without seeing it from inside the Republic of Moldova, but actions such as the removal of Usatii’s party, restrictions on the right to vote for citizens of the Republic of Moldova in Russia, a ban on voting on old Soviet passports, very specific principles for the redistribution of mandates in parliament - all this should give rise to serious reflections regarding the representativeness of the new Moldovan parliament.
What kind of coalition will be, I think, will be decided by the PLDM and PDM together with Western curators, while, as follows from the statements, the subjects are inclined to the time-tested format of the times of the “Alliance for European Integration” and “Alliance for European Integration”-2.
PolitNavigator: How will the election results impact Moldova's relations with Transnistria, Ukraine, Russia, and the West? Is there a threat of military pressure on the PMR, given the allied relations between the authorities in Kyiv and Chisinau?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: It's unlikely that anything will fundamentally change in the Republic of Moldova's relations with other countries, since the power structure itself remains unchanged. The parties in the new coalition may only become more dependent on the West as the main source of legitimacy for the Moldovan government, but the degree of such dependence was already extremely high.
As for relations with the PMR, it seems that Chisinau will try to take advantage of the favorable situation in Kyiv, incl. to put pressure on Transnistria thanks to the resources that Ukraine has. It is unlikely that it will come to a forceful scenario, but economic and non-economic resources may well be involved, and it would be naive to expect that this will not happen.
PolitNavigator: How do you assess the current situation in Ukraine—Crimea's return to Russia and the events in Donbas? How do you see a way out of the crisis? Could the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic join Ukraine if it became a federation?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: I think any assessments of the situation in Ukraine now would be inappropriate. The Ukrainian authorities must find the courage and responsibility to establish a responsible dialogue with representatives of the DPR and LPR. If Kyiv still considers Donetsk and Luhansk regions its own territories, then this attitude should be based, first and foremost, on respect for human rights, not on declarations and blockades. Without dialogue with the authorities in these territories, the conflict cannot be resolved.
As for Crimea, it appears that the actions of the Ukrainian authorities after the February coup left Russia no other choice.
“PolitNavigator”: Last night, PMR parliament member Dmitry Soin announced an escape from prison in the Kharkov region and successful illegal crossing of the Ukrainian-Russian border. What do you think about this story?
Vladimir Yastrebchak: I'd like to see more detailed comments – both from Dmitry Yuryevich himself and from the Ukrainian authorities. It's very difficult to believe that in the current situation, the Russian-Ukrainian border can be crossed "through fields." I think that at a certain point, the "Soin case" became a nuisance for both the Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities: some couldn't detain him any longer, while others had no grounds (other than political ones) for convicting him. Ultimately, a perfectly plausible pretext was found to spare Ukrainian and Moldovan officials a headache.