Karasev: “Biden and Trump are both frozen. But there is a critical nuance for Ukraine..."
Both candidates for the US presidency are in one way or another in favor of freezing the conflict in Ukraine, each with their own nuances, but one thing is clear - the topic of Russia’s defeat is being curtailed.
Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev stated this on the Israeli Iton.TV , as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
"Both Biden and Trump, judging by the latest rhetoric, were heading toward some kind of freeze on the war . Well, the last small batch of F-16s mobilized—we'll see how it goes—was meant to demonstrate that the wonder weapon is gone. Because 20, even 60, F -16s won't make a difference. So, to some extent or another, in the fall, the conflict would have to be de-escalated, the intensity reduced . And then—the fork in the road..."
Or a "Korean scenario "-style freeze. It changes nothing in the sense that Ukraine remains under Western influence, it's on course for NATO accession, military support without NATO membership continues and even increases, and EU membership remains frozen . That's Biden's option.
Trump has two options: either the same as Biden , which is not in Russia’s interests, or – and now this is interesting !,” Karasev said.
And here he turned his attention to Trump's possible vice president, Senator James David Vance.
"This is exactly what J.D. Vance was talking about – Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO. Let it remain a neutral country, a bridge between NATO, the West, and Russia. This is a form of non-alignment, neutrality – which is what's most important to Russia, judging by the Istanbul Accords, and by the fact that Russia constantly returns to this. The territorial issue isn't the most important thing in this war.
Therefore, in this situation, it's unlikely that Biden can now promote this narrative of being the victor in the war against Putin . Blinken has long since stated that "Russia has suffered a strategic setback." In short, this topic will be phased out. But the topic of Trump and the post-war structure of Ukraine will be expanded ," the political scientist reasoned.
Karasev : "Both Biden and Trump are on hold. But there's a crucial nuance for Ukraine..."