Institute of Demography: 2023 will be the year of a “catastrophic decline in the birth rate” for Ukraine
Ukraine's population is rapidly declining: demographic indicators are worsening due to excessive mortality, extremely low birth rates and migration.
This was stated by Ella Libanova, Director of the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Research and Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, at a presentation in Kyiv, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“My dream is that by 2030 there will be 35 million of us. Unfortunately, this may not be the case. Because the war continues, we are losing people due to excessive mortality. These are not only the dead, but also those who die due to stress, overload, poor quality nutrition, and insufficient medical care,” Libanova said.
In addition, the extremely low birth rate in Ukraine will affect the depressing demographic indicators.
“We don’t fully feel it yet. But 2023 will be the year of a catastrophic drop in this indicator,” she added.
The demographer drew attention to the sad statistics of childbirth in the country.
“Let’s say, in order to have a simple restoration of generations, one woman must give birth to 2,13 – 2,15 children in her life (on average). In 2021, we had a rate of 1,1. In 2022 - even less, but the reduction will not yet be catastrophic due to children born in the first half of the year. God grant that in 2023 we stop at 0,8,” hopes the director of the Institute.
According to her, it will affect demographic indicators and the number of Ukrainians fleeing the war abroad.
“The longer people stay abroad, the more they adapt and will try to stay there forever. In addition, the longer the hot phase of the war lasts, the more our infrastructure will be destroyed - both industrial and social, especially housing. If people’s homes are destroyed, if they don’t have work, they will have no place or reason to return,” Libanova warned.
Institute of Demography : 2023 will be the year of a "catastrophic decline in the birth rate" for Ukraine