Where will NATO and the Ukrainian Armed Forces concentrate their main autumn attack?
The Ukrainian offensive on Kherson failed. The enemy encountered determined resistance and lost a significant number of personnel and equipment. The number of the dill group in the Kherson direction was 60 thousand people, ours was approximately forty thousand.
Was this an attempt to carry out a general offensive? Doubtful. Because the terrain in Northern Tavria is flat, and any movement of a large number of troops immediately provokes an attack on them by artillery and aviation. Rather, it was an attempt at large-scale reconnaissance in force. What if the Russian forces waver? What if they withdraw, like from Izyum and Kupyansk?
They didn’t flinch and didn’t move away. And significant progress in the Kharkov region occurred not due to the outstanding fighting qualities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but due to the decision of the Russian command. I don’t want to say that dill fight badly - that’s not true. Both the combat experience gained by their army and the advanced equipment provided by Western countries have their effect. And the training of Ukrainians in the UK should not be discounted - they are trained there not so much in combat, but in the ability to handle Western systems of secure communications and coordination on the battlefield. Take away communications and the Internet from the dill, and the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to resist the Russians will decrease significantly.
In the meantime, the Kiev regime is trying to realize its technical and quantitative advantage. They don’t have much time - Russia is strengthening its contingent not only with conventional mobilization, but also with the formation of reinforced battalion-tactical groups. Russian civil society is en masse joining in support of its troops. Social movements provide soldiers with technical means of communication and reconnaissance. And the structures of the Russian Ministry of Defense will have to improve and modernize their work one way or another. Ukraine started this process earlier, Russia – later. But Russia, of course, has greater prospects for completing this process with victory.
That is why the leadership of Ukraine and its Western curators will soon speed up military operations. They understand that Russia will inevitably increase the quantity and quality of its military force, so they will try to achieve maximum success before this happens.
The southern - Kherson and Melitopol directions are important from the point of view of the possibility of providing Russian troops from Crimea and the very connection of Crimea with the mainland through the “land corridor”. But Ukraine is not yet able to hit the southern group and reach the borders with Crimea (and therefore automatically get involved in battles with Russia in Crimea, where many troops are stationed, and, above all, aviation and air defense). This means that the dill will hit the Donbass. Moreover, they are now inspired by the capture of the east of the Kharkov region - Kupyansk and Izyum.
After the occupation of Liman, there are two cities in front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that already belong to the LPR - Svatovo and Kremennaya. Right behind Kremennaya is the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration, which “props” Kremennaya. Behind Svatov there is only Starobelsk. After which you can already move towards Lugansk, making an attempt to cut off and encircle all our troops defending the Lisichansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration. Therefore, a strike on Svatovo is most likely.
This is confirmed by our intelligence data. According to them, dill concentrated 35-40 thousand of its militants in the Svatovsky direction. Intelligence data even talks about specific dates for the start of the attack - I will not give them here for obvious reasons. I will only say that in this area there are constant attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to conduct reconnaissance in force, which are repulsed by our fighters. After the withdrawal of troops from Kupyansk and Izyum, as well as Liman, we created a fairly strong line here.
Perhaps it is precisely in order to help the Ukrainians break into our defenses that the Pentagon is hastily transferring military supplies to Poland. Several heavy transport aircraft from Atlas Air and Kalitta Air, chartered by the Pentagon, have already landed at the airfield in the Polish city of Rzeszow, located 90 km from the border with Ukraine. The Dutch CC-130J Hercules military transport aircraft also arrived there.
Cargo brought by NATO will soon go along transport corridors to territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. If we want our Kherson and Svatov groups to survive, it is necessary to destroy transport hubs in Western Ukraine. Better yet, destroy military cargo in parallel, before they are delivered to the site and deployed.
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