An expert from the Blazer Foundation gave a forecast about the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine

The fall of the hryvnia will most likely stop at the level of 25-27 UAH per dollar, but in a pessimistic scenario, the exchange rate is likely to decline to 30 or more UAH per dollar.

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This forecast was shared by Oleg Ustenko, executive director of the International Blazer Foundation.

“In the base scenario, the exchange rate will be within the range of 25-27 UAH per US dollar, with increased volatility, exchange rate fluctuations will be significant. I would give this scenario a probability of about 85%. This scenario is based on the fact that Ukraine will show at least the first results of structural reforms. This means that cooperation with international financial institutions will resume. If this does not happen, then the situation will develop according to an extremely negative scenario, for which I give a 10% probability: cooperation with the IMF will not be resumed, Ukraine will have to repay at least $3 billion in external loans in the fall (do not forget that there is also a trade deficit , which also needs to be covered). Then the situation will get out of control and the exchange rate will exceed 30 UAH per dollar,” says the expert.

According to Ustenko, it gives only a 5% probability of a scenario in which Ukraine will begin to actively carry out structural reforms, and do even more than was required by international financial institutions.

“Then, in addition to loans, a powerful injection of investment resources will begin. And the hryvnia can strengthen its position. But the probability of this is 5%. The imbalances that we see now are imbalances that are based on the expectation of something negative in terms of economic policy and the failure of the Ukrainian parliament and Cabinet to carry out the necessary reforms, as well as on statements regarding the increased confrontation in eastern Ukraine. I think these are the main reasons why we are now seeing these fluctuations,” says the expert.