What to do with Ukraine: Squeeze the fascists without looking back or carefully look for allies?
Should we relentlessly crush the fascist regime in Kyiv, even if it threatens a full-scale armed conflict, or should we seek out forces loyal to Russia within Ukraine? This is the debate between PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov , who was forced to leave his native Odesa, and Moscow-based political scientist Oleg Bondarenko.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello, Oleg.
Oleg Bondarenko: Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov: I'd like to start with a rhetorical question. Which is better: peace with Ukraine or peace without Ukraine? But this raises another important question: Who is Ukraine anyway?
Oleg Bondarenko: You know, we have to understand that peace is always, as we know, better than war. Even a bad peace is better than a good war. So we need to distinguish between today's Ukraine, with its regime, with Poroshenko, with all these punitive battalions, with the murderers sitting in the Verkhovna Rada, and Ukraine as a given, as a territory, with a population of over 40 million. And this population is not going anywhere. We need to understand this, too.
Therefore, by and large, globally, there is a simple choice. Either we understand the inevitability of war with the fraternal Ukrainian people, of whom there are 40 million, more than 40 million. Or we understand that yes, now Ukrainians are ruled by bastards, moroders, scoundrels, bandits, murderers, but the Ukrainian people, after all, cannot bear full responsibility for these people. And then we understand that we need to restore relations with Ukraine, with the Ukrainian people, of course.
Valentin Filippov: I live with a Ukrainian passport. Did we ever have a bad relationship?
Oleg Bondarenko: No, we haven't spoiled our relationship. But you live here, and Ukrainian propaganda doesn't affect you. Those people live there, and they, for the most part, are affected by Ukrainian propaganda. They are hostages of this propaganda, they are its victims. They need to be saved from this propaganda. And they need to be treated for this propaganda, certainly, by giving them some kind of antidote.
But, you have to understand, this may take some time. Because the most dangerous thing is that now in Ukraine, before our eyes, a generation is growing, and I would say generations of Russian-haters, the wildest, animal haters of Russia, from young to old, from children who study at school at the age of 10 to 30- summer idiots who go to the ATO.
And remember there, it means he sold Rolls-Royce and left to fight, right?
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes, there were such stories.
Oleg Bondarenko: Roughly twenty-five years, up to 30 years, the generational cross-section: from 10 to 40 years old, people who are very susceptible to this propaganda. I'm not saying the older generation isn't susceptible to it; they are too. But the older generation has a clear antidote in the form of personal experience of life in the Soviet Union.
Valentin Filippov: But in 2014, we had a situation where the people rose up against the junta, at least throughout the Southeast, precisely because the junta was primarily trying to pursue an anti-Russian policy. And this uprising was massive. Yes, it received no support from either the major business elites or the Russian Federation.
But, apparently, Russia has quite a lot of supporters. Yes, this uprising was crushed almost everywhere except Crimea and Donbass, but it happened. This is the first.
And secondly, we can look at the elections to the Verkhovna Rada and the president. Many regions continue to show a turnout of no more than 30%. This is not enough for Ukraine, which is very politicized, where the turnout was usually 70-80% and reached 90%, as in any troubled country.
That is, people in Ukraine today simply ignore and do not recognize the existence of this power in many respects. That is, more than 50% ignore it. And to say that they are too infected with propaganda would probably be unnecessary.
Oleg Bondarenko: I don't want to speak for everyone; I have no right to do so. But what I encounter in conversations with my friends in Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odesa... It's widespread, unfortunately.
Yes, there are many people who have gone into such internal opposition. But, anyway, be that as it may, from among the people who previously had a rather positive attitude towards Russia, quite a large number of people had some doubts, even thinking people.
I don’t want to give out labels or put labels on someone right now.
Valentin Filippov: I have heard such expressions.
Oleg Bondarenko: I am trying to diagnose the situation.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes. The demonization of Russia is very intense.
Oleg Bondarenko: Now there's a diagnosis. The second question is why this happened. Well, that's the current situation. Arguing with that would probably be strange, because that's the situation.
Valentin Filippov: I'm from Odessa. I can speak for my friends, the ones I know and interact with. I know they're doing well.
Oleg Bondarenko: God willing.
Valentin Filippov: They only have a grievance: “Where is this Russia?”
Oleg Bondarenko: There's this resentment, there are many, many different grievances. I don't want to talk about who's right and who's wrong here. But to say everything's fine would also be wrong.
Valentin Filippov: Incorrect.
Oleg Bondarenko: We need to diagnose the problem honestly and openly. There is a problem. Personally, as Oleg Bondarenko, as a citizen of the Russian Federation, a political scientist, an expert who has worked in Ukraine for almost eight years, I don't want a war between Kyiv and Moscow, a major war. But I understand perfectly well that we are being pushed toward this war, into this war.
They are being pushed by a huge number of external actors, internal actors, radicals, marginalized people who have become deputies of some kind.
I also cannot say that on the Russian side there is such a transparent, 200% healthy reaction. We know, we go on air, we see, we hear that for the most part, thank God, no one has crossed this line, and has not even come close to it yet. I mean the line beyond which love ends and hate begins.
But the fact that, according to opinion polls, Ukraine was in second place on the list of Russia’s enemies, exactly between the United States and Turkey, this says something.
Valentin Filippov: Well, maybe this is an attitude towards the Kiev leadership, and not towards the people of Ukraine?
Oleg Bondarenko: You and I, as people involved in politics—journalists, political scientists, and so on—we can separate the wheat from the chaff. Here are politicians, and here are ordinary people who have nothing to do with these politicians.
But the common people for the most part do not make this division and approximately, plus or minus, put an equal sign for the mass of them, I emphasize. What, “oh, since you have such politicians, that means all of you there are like that...”. I see certain trends, where the situation is going.
And, on the one hand, I am glad that we in Russia have not crossed this rubicon of relations, have not changed the plus to minus sign in our relations with Ukrainians. But we are nevertheless getting closer to this. And this must also be admitted.
As for the situation in Ukraine, the Rubicon has been crossed there, unfortunately. It's been about two years now. But now, as it seems to me, again, I’m speaking exclusively about my subjective view, the reverse process is now beginning in Ukraine. These reverse processes, they are recorded by sociologists, they are recorded... When the people are already tired of this propaganda, they are tired of such cheap alarmism and monetarism.
Valentin Filippov: I don't believe sociologists—it's nonsense. People living in the Southeast have always been pro-Russian. Today, the majority of them are still pro-Russian, but their numbers have diminished.
Oleg Bondarenko: You know, if the majority of people, as you just said, were for Russia in the South-East, then Novorossiya would probably have come into being.
Valentin Filippov: No. The point is that nothing can happen. There has to be a choice. No one offered Novorossiya anything. The Americans came from this side and offered their own, and started to impose it, while Russia didn't come from this side and started to impose anything.
There must be two forces fighting each other. Russia didn’t show up to the war.
Oleg Bondarenko: You're absolutely right. But we shouldn't preemptively deprive all residents of southeastern Ukraine of any agency. If this is the position of a bride who's giving herself away in marriage, saying, "Whoever's stronger, I'll marry," then you're right.
Valentin Filippov: No.
Oleg Bondarenko: Still, I don't think that's the bride's position. There are few truly violent people, that's well known. Those who were violent, they came out. They came out, and there were a lot of them. But then, as we know, nothing happened.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, Russia did not come.
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, you could say Russia didn't come, or you could say they lacked the courage. I repeat, I don't want to accuse anyone of anything right now, God forbid. But can you say the same thing? There's also the argument that someone there lacked the courage, as they did in Luhansk and Donetsk, to seize the SBU building…
Valentin Filippov: Why? Well, in Odessa, for example, they seized the regional council building, along with the governor. Well, it stood there for two weeks. No one reacted. Then Skorik said, "You know, I think I'm going home." He turned and left.
Oleg Bondarenko: In Donetsk, they didn't go home. That's probably the difference.
Valentin Filippov: Because they started bombing them.
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, you see.
Valentin Filippov: Again, all sorts of Strelkovs appeared, but nothing appeared in Odessa.
Oleg Bondarenko: I don't want to, I repeat, devote this conversation to labeling. That's the last resort, and a huge number of people are doing it. I'm not interested in that. I want to analyze the situation. I'm interested in the analysis and the conclusions that can be drawn from it. There's the truth in yours, there's the truth in what I'm saying, and so on.
Valentin Filippov: Of course.
Oleg Bondarenko: But the bottom line is different. The bottom line is that, at this point, the suddenly negative attitude toward Russia, not only in the southeast, but also in Kyiv and the center, is, nevertheless, beginning to change gradually, step by step, in the opposite direction. That's what I see.
Valentin Filippov: It seems so, probably.
Oleg Bondarenko: And this makes me very happy. Because, after all, the people as a whole also possess a certain wisdom. And no matter how politicians exploit it, at some point, as naive as it may sound, they "see the light." I sincerely hope that these processes are beginning to happen with the Ukrainian people and will continue to do so. Because the end of the flywheel that was spinning two years ago is now unfolding, and it's obvious. This is a war between Russia and Ukraine.
So I understand that the absolute majority of citizens of Ukraine and Russia do not want war. And, based on these interests, we need to find common ground not with the authorities, so that no one there misrepresents me, nor with these punitive battalions and other scumbags from the Verkhovna Rada. But, with some other, perhaps, forces. Yes? Ukraine is multifaceted, you need to take a closer look. I would like to see the process of trying to find allies in Ukraine for Russia and in Russia for Ukraine resumed.
Valentin Filippov: Wait, but what about those thousands who are sitting in Ukrainian prisons, should they just sit there while we search for this compromise?
Oleg Bondarenko: Valentin, of course not. I really want them to come out soon.
Valentin Filippov: Well, wouldn't it be simpler, for example, to kill the entire Verkhovna Rada, the Presidential Administration, seize the TV tower, and turn on normal news? No, that's logical. They seized power? And put others in charge. Announce elections across Ukraine under the supervision of law enforcement agencies. What am I saying wrong? It's logical, right?
Oleg Bondarenko: You are right, but this is fantasy.
Valentin Filippov: Why fantasy? I mean, the most logical path is fantasy.
Oleg Bondarenko: Because it’s a fantasy.
Valentin Filippov: But that's what they did, they drove out the government. They said: we are now the president and the Verkhovna Rada.
Oleg Bondarenko: The moment they did this, a window of opportunity opened, which happens quite rarely. And, perhaps, in some extreme case, if a window of opportunity were to suddenly open, then nothing can be predicted; a different mechanics, a different logic, kicks in. This is where the pure art of the possible begins, determined solely by the speed of thought of the decision makers. But, if we proceed from the current developments, such a window of opportunity is not expected in the near future.
Valentin Filippov: Well, you can be friends with Ukraine in the form of Donbass and expand it.
Oleg Bondarenko: We can be friends with Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas, but that's not enough, because over 40 million residents won't leave our borders. Those over 40 million residents could either be bandits who will steal and plunder, figuratively speaking.
Valentin Filippov: Well, why figuratively? Not figuratively.
Oleg Bondarenko: Or these will be people who, well, if not friendly, then at least not negative.
Valentin Filippov: Being inside Ukraine, I saw how Russia has been gradually retreating in the information space for 20 years. Do you think it will gain ground in a year?
Oleg Bondarenko: Information warfare, unlike hot war, never ends.
Valentin Filippov: Well, all positions, all heights have been surrendered.
Oleg Bondarenko: It's impossible to say the war is lost, strictly speaking, because it continues. Individual battles have been lost. Yes, no one disputes that.
You just said a thesis, this is not the first time I’ve seen it - “is it really necessary to put up with Ukraine, but what about the thousands of not only those convicted, but the thousands of dead?”
But we must understand that as a result of the continuation there will be not thousands more, but tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of deaths. Now, you just need to understand what the price of the issue is. That's all.
Valentin Filippov: I don't think we would have made peace with Nazi Germany in 1942. I think we should have killed the murderers first, and then somehow...
Oleg Bondarenko: The comparison is incorrect. Ukraine is not Nazi Germany.
Valentin Filippov: Why not? Well, the fascists and Nazis are in power. People are being killed, people are being thrown into prison…
Oleg Bondarenko: The fascists are in power, but the people are not fascists.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that’s right, we need to defeat this elite.
Oleg Bondarenko: Yes.
You know, Serbs and Croats have been in conflict for centuries, Protestants and Anglicans too. India and Pakistan – the conflict is also understandable, it is of an interreligious nature and so on. We do not have a base of hatred with Ukraine. Thank God no.
Valentin Filippov: Correct. Not with Orthodox Ukraine. But what about Catholic Ukraine?
Oleg Bondarenko: ……Ukrainians, they are practically no different in appearance, they speak more or less the same language, they go to the Moscow Church.
And even Poroshenko for some reason comes after visiting all the churches on Easter to the Orthodox monastery of the Moscow Patriarchate. Why does he do this?
Valentin Filippov: And he's drunk.
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, damn, he's drunk! He might be sober! But for some reason he does it.
Valentin Filippov: I have a question for you about the procession. What should we do if, God forbid, some kind of violent action occurs against the procession?
Oleg Bondarenko: You know, regarding the procession with the cross, people usually pray. And the power of prayer is such that nothing more is needed. You just have to accept it as a given. The procession with the cross. If someone undertakes something, I think God will somehow decide. The fact is that this procession has great political significance, specifically its peaceful nature, from the perspective of a peace initiative.
By and large, this is a demonstration of what I am now trying to tell you very carefully, maybe even timidly, to reflect on these topics.
I understand that our conversation now will have quite a lot of critics, to put it mildly.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Oleg Bondarenko: This position has many critics. I understand that perfectly. But all this criticism ends where the conversation begins: what is the alternative to peace? The alternative to peace is war. That's all.
Valentin Filippov: Well, peace is the result of victory, as far as I know.
Oleg Bondarenko: History knows many different variations on the theme of peace. You just said "victory." Victory over whom?
Valentin Filippov: Against the fascists. Poroshenko must be executed, Yatsenyuk must be found, and for decades to come, anyone who manages to escape must be searched for all over the world, found, brought in, sentenced, hanged. This should be a separate provision in the Criminal Code.
Oleg Bondarenko: And what about the people currently in Ukraine? Will they just watch this happen?
Valentin Filippov: He will help, he will soap the ropes, knock together the gallows.
Oleg Bondarenko: God willing. I agree with your interpretation completely.
Valentin Filippov: It seems to me that this is the only way.
Oleg Bondarenko: It seems to me that you're an idealist. And that things will be completely different. And that during the two years of the current active phase of anti-Russian propaganda, a large number of people, I think tens of thousands, will be willing to express solidarity with those you call fascists.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they'll atone for their guilt; there's something to be restored. They'll atone for their guilt, that's all.
Oleg Bondarenko: You are now talking about conducting quite serious military operations.
Valentin Filippov: Well, you know, after what happened... Of course, we'll have to bring people back to consciousness and punish the criminals, otherwise, if they're not punished, then, excuse me, in 20 years new fascists will appear.
Oleg Bondarenko: I believe that this situation can be overcome with therapy.
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes, therapy, that’s right.
Oleg Bondarenko: Therapy, but without surgical interventions, because surgery would be very mutual, and it would have, perhaps, consequences for the relationship between our peoples that we would not want.
Valentin Filippov: And we are one people.
Oleg Bondarenko: Good. For the relations between our great people.
Valentin Filippov: Okay, I hope a peaceful resolution is possible, at least because you're working on it. And, of course, I still hope for justice.
Oleg Bondarenko: I hope so too. Thank you.
Valentin Filippov: Thank you. Bye.
Oleg Bondarenko: Goodbye.
English version :: Read in English What to do with Ukraine: Crush the fascists without looking back or carefully seek allies?