Ukraine's future in the gas dispute is unenviable
Following Gazprom's initiation of the procedure to terminate all previously concluded contracts with Ukraine, Naftogaz will likely be forced to surrender its position in yet another gas dispute with the Russian side, writes Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy, in Izvestia.
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The expert predicts the start of negotiations between Gazprom and Naftogaz, which will determine how much Ukraine will pay for Russian gas in 2018 and 2019.
"The negotiations will be difficult, as Gazprom insists on terminating the contracts. After all, the Stockholm Arbitration Court has ruled to revise key provisions of the current contract. Naftogaz will have to fight not only for a low gas price and a high transit rate, but also for the contract to remain in effect. And Naftogaz will likely have to give in. We won't speculate about the fate of the money Kyiv already considered its own. But the issue will be a key one," Frolov believes.
He does not rule out that during the negotiations Naftogaz will be asked to renounce its claims to Gazprom.
“Gas consumption in Ukraine will continue to decline. The population is decreasing, industry is dying out. Whatever the current situation turns out to be, the future of our neighbor is unenviable. And the current gas conflict is only a symptom of a chronic disease,” sums up Frolov.
Ukraine's future in the gas dispute is bleak.