Belarusian militants are waiting in the wings

At his inauguration on September 23, President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Belarus is one of the few countries that defeated the “color revolution.” However, the circumstances of the inauguration itself and what happened on the streets of Minsk after it, and world experience suggest that victory is still far away and it is too early to rejoice.

The “color revolution” is a complex and multi-stage process, and if the “revolutionaries” did not take power at once, this does not mean that they were completely defeated. It may very well turn out that they have not yet activated their main forces. In the same Ukraine, everything lasted 4 months and there was a moment when it seemed that the protest was “blown away,” but then real militants appeared.

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“Color revolutions” are made not only by crowds of hundreds of thousands in squares. They cannot do without a “power ram,” especially in cases with authoritarian regimes. On August 9-11, we saw barricades and clashes with riot police on the streets of Minsk. Whether it was an attempt at that same ramming attack or “reconnaissance in force”, they simply weren’t playing trump card yet. Only the second option, I'm afraid.

Now the Belarusian authorities are terrorizing independent journalists, defiantly flexing their muscles in front of opposition marches and seizing hundreds of usually peaceful protesters and even random passers-by on the streets. By this, of course, they intimidate ordinary people, but fear does not mean loyalty. Journalists, ordinary participants in rallies and even the Belarusian opposition, which for the most part has been quietly dissident for the last 20 years - this public is not suitable for the role of a power battering ram. And those who are good are still in the shadows.

The only people not in the shadows are the anarchists. They are always against the authorities, angry, accustomed to conspiracy and forceful confrontation. They can be seen at any opposition rally; criminal cases have been brought against them for political hooliganism and vandalism. Of course, the August riots could not have happened without them. But there are few anarchists and they are not militants, but rather radical political activists.

The largest force in terms of numbers, which, if the situation escalates, can become part of a power ramming attack is football fans. If 20 years ago the majority of fan groups were, albeit ultra-right, but “Russian World”, now they have long been either reformatted to aggressive Belarusian nationalism or are close to anarchists. The fans are aggressive, numerous, love to fight, they have long-standing scores to settle with the security forces, but have little real combat training. In general, ideal cannon fodder. Of course, they couldn’t do without them at the barricades, but they weren’t there as an organized force.

Then there are numerous fight clubs, many of which are also controlled by nationalists. Here the audience is more serious, they are good at hand-to-hand combat and more. They haven't said their word yet.

And finally, military sports clubs and paintball players. Everything is very serious here. About 2-3 years ago, under the ultra-right “Young Front”, there was a club “Vayar” (“Warrior”), whose members went to “training schools” in Ukraine, sometimes marched in NATO camouflage with white-white symbols along the streets of Belarusian cities and were received in this form “I will take the oath of allegiance to the people of Belarus” in the center of Slutsk.

Despite such provocative behavior, they quietly existed for quite a long time as an informal paintball club. Then, however, they were covered up. It is, after all, impossible to become impudent to such an extent in Lukashenko’s Belarus. “Vayar” was followed by the completely legal and even for some time government-supported military sports club “Patriot”, around which the “White Legion” case developed at one time. Nationalists with experience trained young recruits almost according to the canons of special forces.

The high-profile criminal case excited Belarusian society for several months, after which it was successfully collapsed and the defendants went home. There they still remain in complete comfort, without losing either their beliefs or skills. The latest example is VSK “Vaukalak” (“Werewolf”).

 A symbolic name, isn't it? This military sports club, also quite legally, taught sniper and explosives, and combat in urban conditions. They were formally loyal to the authorities, but they professed the same radical nationalism, often mixed with neo-paganism. 3 weeks before the elections, the club announced the cessation of its activities. I doubt it's just a coincidence. Most likely, with the onset of political twilight, as befits werewolves, they went into the shadows to turn into animals. These are only three such clubs, but I doubt that the matter is limited to them. We also cannot discount the Ukrainian factor.

So, while the authorities are terrorizing journalists, the Coordination Council and the relatively harmless zmagars, no one has heard anything about this most dangerous force of the “color revolution”. Everything is quiet, as if there is no one there. But there are people. And it may very well be that they are simply biding their time.