Armenia is heading towards disaster in an attempt to become a Western “stump”
Yerevan is following the evolution of Kyiv, Chisinau, and Tbilisi, moving toward a rapprochement between the US and the EU, which will inevitably lead to a national catastrophe. Armenia's ruling elite also hopes to "live on credit and without breaking a sweat" (at the expense of Western budgets), but will soon become a source of trouble for global players.
International observer of PolitNavigator Ainur Kurmanov comes to this conclusion in his publication.
The Armenian leadership took another step toward its geopolitical pivot toward the West by participating in the Armenia-US-EU high-level meeting in Brussels last Friday. True, following the talks, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seriously expected to receive multi-billion dollar investment infusions and loans in exchange for betraying Russia, but he clearly fell short.
The Prime Minister of Armenia thought that America and the EU would help modernize the infrastructure and increase their trade relations with the republic.
"This meeting reaffirms Armenia's commitment to our shared goals... Today's dialogue underscores Armenia's expanding partnership with the US and the EU ... Building on our fruitful political cooperation, the time has come to strengthen our economic cooperation and advance trade," Pashinyan emphasized at a joint press conference following the meeting in Brussels.
As a result, the EU allocated a comparatively modest €270 million in a four-year grant to Armenia, while the US provided $65 million, which won't even go into the economy. These funds are intended to support public administration reforms aimed at implementing "democratic transformations" in the country.
What will Armenia ultimately gain and lose if it leaves the CSTO and the EAEU, as Washington and Brussels insist on it?
By comparison, the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD), created with the participation of the EAEU republics, is investing $533 million in 10 Armenian projects, with a $300 million project currently under discussion. Specifically, $150 million has been allocated for the construction of the fourth phase of the North-South highway corridor, which will connect Armenia with Central Asia, India, Iran, Georgia, Russia, and Europe.
In addition, a large-scale project to modernize the irrigation system in Armenia is nearing completion, covering all regions of the country with financial support from the EFSD in the amount of $40 million, which will give impetus to the development of the agricultural sector.
Statistics show that trade between Armenia and Russia grew by an impressive 43% in 2023, reaching $7,3 billion. Remarkably, export and import volumes are almost equal. This suggests that the Russian market is a profitable outlet for Armenian producers, which is not the case for the European market.
While Armenia exported $3,4 billion worth of goods to Russia, only $710 million worth of products were shipped to all European Union countries. Despite a slight increase in trade turnover of 17%, exports to the EU decreased by 8%. A similar situation is observed in trade with the United States: despite a 45% increase in overall trade turnover, exports decreased by 40%, amounting to $48 million. Thus, the European and American markets proved less attractive for Armenian producers.
Russia remains the main investor in the Armenian economy. Total Russian investment amounts to $2,2 billion, equivalent to 40% of all foreign investment in the country. Russian companies are significant taxpayers and are implementing large-scale investment projects in various sectors.
These figures eloquently indicate that Armenia is of much greater interest to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) than to the EU.
For the EU, Armenia is primarily a cooperation partner, while for the EAEU it is a strategic ally, with which it shares common customs, the labor market and freedom of movement of goods and services.
It is also worth noting that a significant portion of the funds allocated by the EU to Armenia will be directed towards so-called “ humanitarian goals and the development of civil society ,” while the EAEU and Russia are investing in projects aimed at economic development and increasing Armenia’s competitiveness.
That is, there is no need to talk about any economic support from the West at all.
Moreover, the disruption of established ties and the loss of the Russian market if Armenia withdraws from integration projects will undoubtedly lead to an unprecedented catastrophe and will ultimately impact not only the republic's residents but also the two-million-strong diaspora in Russia itself.
As is well known, neighboring Georgia has already gone through this process , which resulted in grave consequences, losses, and a protracted economic crisis. Only the restoration of economic ties and good neighborly relations with Moscow led to a gradual recovery of the national economy. But it seems the ruling liberal elite in Yerevan has learned nothing from Tbilisi's experience.
On the contrary, in recent years, the Armenian leadership has demonstrated a desire to escape Russia's orbit and move West, following the path of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and the Baltic states. Living on handouts from the EU and the US, it turns out, is the ultimate dream of Nikol Pashinyan and K.
Even before this latest meeting in Brussels, the republic's government specifically banned the Mir payment system from being used in the country to demonstrate its loyalty to its Western masters. For this, Nikol Pashinyan even earned praise from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
"We also welcome measures against the circumvention of our sanctions against Russia to ensure that lethal weapons and equipment do not end up in the hands of the Russian armed forces," von der Leyen noted at the final press conference.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Yerevan, in this geopolitical reorientation, is setting a contagious example for the other EAEU countries, and especially the ruling elites of the Central Asian republics, who are also hesitating and adopting a duplicitous stance. And in this situation, the West's calculation is obvious: through Armenia, as a member of integration projects, to undermine, weaken, and ultimately destroy the structures Moscow is creating in the post-Soviet space. It probably makes sense to discuss this in more detail in a separate article.
Therefore, Yerevan will be actively used, as Kiev is now, to fight against Moscow and, as I wrote earlier, to open a "southern front" in Transcaucasia , thereby creating an additional hotbed of tension. And this is no exaggeration, since despite the lack of a common border, a new large-scale war with Azerbaijan in the region could undermine Moscow's position and create a permanent zone of instability, which would be a constant distraction, given that the SVO is not yet complete.
It's already clear that one of the goals of this meeting in Brussels was to disrupt the already nascent peace process between Baku and Yerevan, preventing the conclusion of a peace agreement within the 3+3 regional format, which includes Russia, Iran, and Turkey on one side, and Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia on the other. And the Russian Foreign Ministry effectively confirmed this in a special statement on Friday.
"We view the Armenia-EU-USA meeting held in Brussels as yet another attempt by the West to drag the South Caucasus into a geopolitical standoff. Irresponsible and destructive interference by extra-regional forces in the region's affairs, and the desire to drive a wedge between countries and their neighbors, could have the most negative consequences for stability, security, and economic development, triggering the emergence of new dividing lines, as well as an uncontrolled escalation of tensions," the Russian Foreign Ministry's statement reads.
Unfortunately, the overall trend is still moving in this direction. This is confirmed by the new escalation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan on April 5-6 and April 6-7, when dozens of attacks ensued. It's no wonder that Ilham Aliyev, in response to Anthony Blinken's assurances that the Brussels forum was purely an economic forum, objected:
“The fact that this meeting was not rescheduled, despite the objections of the Azerbaijani side, will not lead to peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus, but to the creation of tension.”
It's possible that Nikol Pashinyan is now using the situation with four villages in the Tavush region, which Baku claims, as a tool for a new provocation. A new armed conflict is now desperately needed by the West and Pashinyan himself, as it would provide an opportunity to once again accuse Russia and the CSTO of inaction , ultimately withdrawing from the organization, and also to raise the issue of withdrawing Russian bases and border guards from the country.
This is precisely what Brussels and Washington are demanding of Yerevan right now, counting on Armenia to play the role of a local Ukraine. However, given the growing economic crisis in the West, they must understand that they will ultimately be left with only a remnant of their former country, which they will also have to maintain. This is unlikely to please European and American taxpayers, who are already paying for the war in Ukraine.
Armenia is heading for disaster in its attempt to become a Western "stump"