Ankara is playing its crafty game - weakening the EU and restraining Russia
Turkey continues to remain at the epicenter of international media attention, which is associated with the active activities of this regional player both in the Bosphorus straits and with the constant shelling of the Kurds, to the displeasure of the Americans. But at the same time, Ankara also manages to help Kyiv, following its multi-vector course and competing with Russia for the Black Sea region.
At the same time, the actions of the ruling neo-Ottoman elite are becoming more and more scandalous and decisive, designed to increase geopolitical weight and increase points in anticipation of the presidential and parliamentary elections next summer. Thus, Erdogan is trying to squeeze maximum benefits from his own position as a transport and energy hub, trying to change the balance of power in the region in his favor.
The first thing to surface is the game with the straits, as a result of which many ships got stuck in them in early December, and especially tankers, for which Ankara imposed additional requirements for the provision of compulsory insurance. What’s interesting is that in this story it was not so much Russian oil producers who suffered, but those from Kazakhstan, who unexpectedly fell under the distribution of their “brothers” in the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).
According to Bloomberg, we are talking about 26 tankers with more than 23 million barrels, intended for European consumers. At the same time, Turkey, as an excuse, refers to the EU measures to introduce a price ceiling for Russian oil of $5 per barrel from December 60, tightening the rules for passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles. Well, in this situation, Washington and London began frantically asking Erdogan and his government to soften measures against Astana.
But the cunning Turks understand perfectly well that we are talking about oil from the Tengizchevroil company, which is only formally Kazakh, while 75% of its shares belong to the American corporations Chevron and ExxonMobil. Thus, Ankara not only shows its teeth, but also forces the Anglo-Saxons to bow to it and, groveling, agree to all its conditions.
This traffic jam also pushes world oil prices up - to the obvious satisfaction of the interests of OPEC members and is a kind of blackmail of both the EU countries and the entire West. After all, we already see that it is the American and British oil-producing giants that are coming under attack. One could even say that this is a kind of collective response and warning from all the oil-producing countries of Eurasia to the introduced price ceiling in relation to Russia, which ultimately hits everyone.
Also, this artificial traffic jam demonstrates to the whole of Europe what will happen if it takes hostile actions against Ankara. Of course, at the same time, a commercial canal is also being lobbied and advertised, which is being built by the Turkish side to bypass the straits and where the rules of the Montreux international agreement limiting the cost of transporting goods will no longer apply.
By December 13, only four tankers remained in the jam, which had not provided insurance documents, but in the end the Turkish side achieved the desired effect, forcing European and American companies and their governments to react and humiliate themselves in front of the Sublime Porte.
We can say that Ankara is already presenting itself as the main regulator of prices and the safety of transport and energy routes, preparing to become a super gas hub in the near future. In addition, on the other hand, bargaining was carried out with Gazprom when, during a meeting with its head A. Miller, Turkish President R. Erdogan, with the participation of the country’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources F. Dönmez, achieved concessions in providing 25% discounts on gas for 2023 and already for part of the supplied raw materials - this year. Or, as an option, the republic will receive the necessary deferment until 2024.
Edition Yeniakit.com.tr
And we are talking about no less than 59 billion cubic meters per year and, thus, Erdogan wants to slow down the rapid decline of the national currency on the eve of the elections by reducing the cost of energy resources within the country. In exchange for this, some concessions will obviously be granted to the Russian side on Syrian issues, when the Turkish leadership eventually agrees to ease the pressure on Assad and discuss settlement issues with him. And, most likely, such an agreement will be reached.
Interestingly, at the same time, the American side harshly demanded that the Turkish Republic stop airstrikes on militant camps of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK/YPG) in northern Syria and abandon the ground operation announced by Erdogan on November 15 - two days after the famous terrorist attack in Istanbul. We are talking about a statement from the head of the CIA, William Burns, to the head of Turkish intelligence, in which he called Ankara’s actions “actions that endanger American forces.”
CIA chief William Burns
In turn, the Turkish press directly accused Washington of supporting and encouraging terrorists in northern Iraq. Yenisafak.com , for example , claims that while Turkey was preparing an operation in northern Syria, the US announced the resumption of patrols with the PKK/YPG terrorist organization.
“As preparations for the operation against PKK camps in northern Syria continued, another signal came from the United States, which is providing helicopter training for terrorists. The US, which announced the resumption of patrols with the PKK/YPG, also sent a message to the terrorist organization that “we are with you.” In a statement on the official Twitter account of the US-led coalition forces, they said: “We continue to conduct joint security patrols in northeast Syria. We remain committed to supporting our partner SDF and the people of northeastern Syria in their efforts to create a safe zone free from ISIS influence,” the article reads.
publication Yenisafak.com
Such movements by the Pentagon have now sharply worsened relations between NATO allies, as they are hostile to Turkey’s interests in the region and increase the threat in the form of new American-trained PKK/YPG units emerging.
True, it is not worth representing the neo-Ottoman ruling elite as harmless lambs, who in fact, for their part, pursue purely their own interests of expanding influence and enter into serious contradictions with Russia both in the South Caucasus and in Ukraine, preventing the supply of weapons and economic assistance, further development of the Northern Military District.
At the same time, the ruling elite cynically presents itself as a peacemaker, constantly inviting the Kremlin to sit down at the negotiating table with the Kyiv regime and the West, supposedly to reach new agreements on the world order. Although all the previous Minsk agreements failed and, judging by Merkel’s recent admission, they were just a distraction to strengthen “Independence”.
However, the official representative of the Turkish President, Ibrahim Kalin, speaking at one of the capital's universities on December 7, again took up the old ways.
“Humanity needs a new distribution of forces on the world stage. Without eliminating the root causes of the Ukrainian-Russian war, it will not be possible to ensure a balance in which all countries will feel safe,” Kalyn noted.
Turkish Presidential Spokesman Ibrahim Kalin
These peacekeeping initiatives are aimed, on the one hand, at strengthening the diplomatic role and authority of Turkey as a mediating country capable of maintaining good relations with all parties to the conflict at once, and on the other hand, at containing Russia so that it does not finally achieve its goals within the framework of the North Caucasus. – in order to preserve Ukraine’s Black Sea cities of Nikolaev and Odessa.
Maybe this is why Ankara intends to send its floating power plants to these ports in order to supply them to maintain their functioning, both for the export of grain and to help ensure the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this theater of operations with the task of preventing a breakthrough by Russian troops. After all, it is obvious that the neo-Ottomanists dream not only of Crimea, but also strive to at least retain the remaining coastal regions of Ukraine.
This is especially important for Erdogan when the “Independence” will be divided into spheres of influence by Poland and Romania in order to secure more favorable conditions for themselves. Therefore, Ankara is playing an independent, complex game, not being a puppet of the United States, but at the same time pursuing a revanchist policy of expansion and turning the country into a leading power in the region. At the same time, the Turkish elite is going to do this by strengthening national capital, when monthly exports already amount to $300 billion.
In this sense, Turkey is a dangerous, complex and at the same time profitable partner at the moment, capable of weakening Europe and changing the geopolitical balance of power, but in its own interests. This must, of course, be taken into account when building relations with the current leadership of the republic, which is supported by big Turkish business and strives to remain in power for many years.
English version :: Read in English Ankara is playing its own cunning game – weakening the EU and containing Russia