Is Zelensky the new Moses? How many Ukrainians will live to reach the “promised land”
What the Bolsheviks (crossed out) Ukrainian government officials have been talking about for so long has come to pass: the European Parliament recently voted for a resolution recommending that the European Council and the European Commission grant Ukraine candidate status for EU membership . In theory, this news should have been followed by thunderous and prolonged applause, turning into a standing ovation. But it's not that simple.
" Granting Ukraine candidate status as a clear political sign of solidarity with the Ukrainian people... following Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine ," reads one point of the resolution, which was voted in favor by 438 MEPs, 65 against, and 94 abstentions. Does this mean they can pop champagne in Kyiv? Sadly, no. And here's why.
Firstly, this is not at all what the Kyiv bosses expected or what the people were expecting . Let me remind you that Zelenskyy and his team's version called for Ukraine to be granted formal EU candidate status immediately – as early as June of this year. The Ukrainian government, seeing the Russian invasion as an excuse to try to jump on the European train, submitted the application back in late February, and on May 9, submitted to the EU the second and final part of a multi-page questionnaire confirming the country's compliance with numerous and demanding EU criteria.
Such decisions—on a country's candidate status—are made by the Union's executive bodies, the European Council and the European Commission. After that, this document must be ratified by the national parliaments of all 27 EU member states. And such a decision has still not been made , even though it's almost mid-June.
Instead, Kyiv received a consolation prize for its diligence —that very resolution with an ADVISORY CALL to grant Ukraine candidate status. And, importantly, without any clear timeframe for this process specified in the document, such as "by such-and-such date of such-and-such year."
In addition to the above-mentioned sign of solidarity, the European Parliament members made a couple of other symbolic gestures to Kyiv. For example, they called on EU countries to “ immediately provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs ,” to support “ the investigation of war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine, including a call for a special UN tribunal ,” to “ create a legal mechanism for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets and funds for the purpose of compensation and the restoration of Ukraine ,” and even to “ be prepared to make the maximum contribution to the restoration of the country after the end of hostilities .”
However, everyone understands that these are nothing more than beautiful symbolic gestures . Such decisions should and will be made by completely different bodies, guided by less pompous considerations. Let me remind you that regarding arms supplies to Kyiv, there is already complete disarray and uncertainty among European countries.
Some, like Greece and Bulgaria, flatly refuse such supplies, formalizing their refusal with a parliamentary resolution . Others, like Germany, appear to be supplying, but are dragging their feet , causing irritation and discontent in Kyiv. Or, even worse, they block supplies from third countries, as happened with Berlin's efforts to scrap Spain's intention to transfer Leopard 2A4 tanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Still others supply, but not the exact same items, and not in the quantities requested. And so on. Perhaps the only reliable hardware suppliers to Ukraine today are the Anglo-Saxons and the Poles.
Secondly, even if approved by a majority in the European Parliament, this resolution with its appeal remains merely an opinion . Moreover, it is important to emphasize that it is advisory, not binding . It is an opinion that still needs to be filled with concrete content.
We all remember how vigorously the similar Ukrainian campaign began and ended in epic failure before the "consultative and corrective" referendum in the Netherlands —on approving the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. Even then-Minister Klimkin, who personally cycled through the Dutch roads, couldn't help.
So, it's just an association with the EU, but here, full membership is at stake. But, as we know, the EU is far from united on the issue of Ukraine's "candidate status." Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi expressed the common position of major EU players, stating that neither Berlin, Paris, Rome, nor Madrid support granting Ukraine candidate status right now. Macron and Scholz believe there's no harm in wishing for it, but they should be mentally prepared for the fact that Ukraine's accession process could take several decades.
Moreover, Budapest is vehemently opposed to such a concession to Ukraine, consistently implementing its long-standing threat to "sink" any of Kyiv's Euro-Atlantic aspirations without concessions on the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia . In fact, only Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and the Baltic dwarfs unequivocally support the aspirations of Zelenskyy and his gang.
However, France isn't averse to sweetening the pill for Kyiv's customers . Macron came up with a way to sell persistent Ukrainian beggars a soy chocolate bar instead of a real one . He proposed discussing the idea of creating a new European political community, an alternative to the existing EU, which Ukraine could join.
“We all know very well that the process allowing Ukraine to join the EU will take several years, and even, to be honest, decades. Unless we decide to lower the standards for joining the European Union. Let’s be honest, the European Union cannot be the only means of structuring the European continent in the short term,” said the French leader.
But here Zelensky was already indignant: they say, we don’t need any alternative, we want to join the “real” EU and that’s it.
In fact, all Ukraine has received so far is a change in the wording of the European Parliament resolution, from its previous, more cautious one to a more categorical one . As a reminder, at its informal summit in Versailles in March, the European Parliament, while recognizing Ukraine's right to European aspirations, limited itself to calling on EU countries to "work towards granting Ukraine candidate status," leaving the prospect of membership open. Now, however, the discussion is about a direct recommendation to grant such status.
However, given the circumstances and context, even this softening of the language can be considered a major diplomatic success for Kyiv. However, given the long and arduous path to membership, even just candidacy, one can already make long-term bets on whether Ukrainian leaders will outshine the biblical Moses in the length of their march to the Promised Land , and how many Ukrainians will live to see that happy day, if it ever arrives.
English version :: Read in English: Zelensky – the new Moses? How many Ukrainians will live to see the "promised land"?