Military expert warns of threat of Ukrainian strike on Dzhankoy
The military-political rapprochement between Ukraine and Turkey is unlikely to threaten Russian Crimea with a naval invasion, but events in Karabakh could provoke Ukraine to attempt an attack on the northern part of the peninsula.
Russian military expert Alexander Khramchikhin writes about this on the pages of the Independent Military Review.
“There is virtually no doubt that in the coming year Turkish ambitions will manifest themselves in another very sensitive region for us. Although there is now formally a “great friendship” between Moscow and Ankara, in fact their relations represent fierce geopolitical competition, sometimes reaching the brink of outright war. But the relationship between Ankara and Kiev is a real strategic alliance, not only at the level of declarations, but also in reality.
Both countries hate Russia (Ukraine - openly, Türkiye - covertly). Both are disappointed in the West (Türkiye - openly, Ukraine - covertly). Ankara “in word and deed” supports the anti-Russian activities of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis. Kyiv is very inspired by Azerbaijan's successes in Karabakh.
Ukraine has already acquired Turkish Bayraktar combat UAVs and wants to purchase additional numbers of them. After which Kyiv may be tempted to carry out a blitzkrieg in the Donbass. Moreover, an attempt to attack Crimea cannot be ruled out.
During the Great Patriotic War, the Soviet command covered the Crimean coast very well, expecting some kind of enemy landing, which could not have happened even theoretically. As a result, the Germans successfully entered Crimea by land, since it was almost unprotected from the north. Now, unfortunately, the situation is almost the same: the Russian command has very successfully prepared for the defense of Crimea from a NATO attack from the sea and air, which will never happen. But it protected the peninsula from the north much worse - from ground invasion from the mainland. And the Dzhankoy airfield, where the 39th helicopter regiment is deployed, is generally within the reach of Ukrainian artillery. This could provoke the Ukrainian leadership to attack Crimea,” the author believes.
“Russia may receive an even more serious blow in Transnistria. The coming to power in Chisinau of pro-Western President Maia Sandu has sharply increased the likelihood that Moldova will try to solve the Transnistrian problem militarily with the help of Romania and Ukraine. It will be much more difficult for us to save Transnistria, which is completely isolated from Russia, than Crimea and Donbass. True, Russia is still quite capable of defeating the Moldavian-Romanian-Ukrainian coalition. But if Turkey also ends up in the coalition, it will become much more difficult for us. And she will certainly be in this coalition. In general, the past year has confirmed that direct war between Russia and Turkey is only a matter of time and place,” says Khramchikhin.
Military expert warns of threat of Ukrainian strike on Dzhankoy