In Moscow, a decision was made to transfer the conflict to a positional freeze – Pinchuk
The Russian leadership made a political decision to go on the defensive in Ukraine.
One of the leaders of the Union of Donbass Volunteers, former head of the DPR Ministry of State Security, Andrey Pinchuk, wrote about this on his Telegram channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reported.
He believes that the reason for the RF Armed Forces going on the defensive is not at all the strength of the enemy and his support from the West.
“I think the reason is the decision to stop. More precisely, this decision is also a connection between cause and effect, where the quasi-causes are the support of the population of Ukraine for the Zelensky government (which is also a consequence of other processes) - and here it is also a connection with the inability to give the Ukrainian population an attractive image of Russia, to build a large network of multi-level communications and interests in addition to individual and very private, camouflaged as state ones - and here even deeper - no longer external, but internal ideological gaps,” writes Pinchuk.
He suggests that the Russian authorities are counting on the fact that the calm will play in favor of the Russian Federation - the Americans will switch to China, the Europeans will not be able to maintain this pace of confrontation for long, Ukraine will plunge into civil strife, which will allow Russia to accumulate combat resources.
Pinchuk characterizes this position as “another postponed plan with good intentions and unclear reality.”
“At the same time, militarization will be carried out in Russian public life, necessary for the accumulation of potential and further revenge, but within the framework of an end-to-end, but not total stratum, with the preservation of a certain elite isolated comfort and familiar civil processes. Against this background, activism will be encouraged, which at a certain stage will be molded into the model of the Chinese Red Guards,” predicts the former head of the DPR Ministry of State Security.
“One thing is obvious - if they could have gone forward, they would have. We can’t - we stand. Since we are standing, it means we need to stand in the most advantageous way,” the author adds.
He is convinced that the stability of Russian defense is hampered by the violation of its integrity and names threatening directions.
“In the ledges - Bakhmut, Ugledar, flaws in the direction of Kremennaya-Svatovo, threats of crossing the Dnieper in the Kherson direction. And, of course, attempts to destabilize Crimea and Sevastopol, disrupt the holiday season, with announced shelling as elements of demonstrating the goals of the “offensive.” Plus the politically problematic shelling of Donetsk and, as a consequence, Marinka and Avdievka as conditions for stabilizing the defense.
As soon as two processes occur: 1. Ukraine makes its “counter-offensive” and runs out of steam, and 2. Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Maryinka are taken, there will probably be a freeze, at least partial (like everything else),” Pinchuk suggests.
By freeze he does not mean reconciliation, but a transfer of the situation from relatively large-scale hostilities to the final regime of “trench warfare.”
He does not exclude other scenarios, including significant Ukrainian victories in the offensive, which the author considers unlikely, but possible given Russian errors in management, maneuvering of reserves, supply and communications, as well as the saturation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with long-range artillery and missile systems, air defense strike systems and combat aviation.
“A sharp breakthrough by Russia of the Ukrainian defense or a transition to a strategic or operational “counter-counter-offensive” on the shoulders of a Ukrainian counter-offensive,” the author describes another scenario. – Strategically doubtful. Tactically, in certain areas of local importance - it is possible.
Operationally - possible with rapid army transformation, solving problems of communications, satellite, military-strategic and political intelligence, transferring reconnaissance and sabotage work to an offensive mode, changing protocols for training and combat coordination of personnel, the work of artillery and UAVs, supply issues, changing personnel approaches ensuring, highlighting and mass adoption of best practices based on the results of the year of the North Military District, carrying out high-quality behind-the-scenes offensive work through the special services, partial mobilization of industry, the financial sector and the economy while maintaining a balance with civilian life to prevent a total crisis (which is difficult and almost impossible in the current conditions) “, notes the former head of the DPR MGB.
At the same time, he sees no real signs of the conflict transitioning to a larger-scale state with the participation of other countries and more massive weapons systems.
Moscow has decided to freeze the conflict – Pinchuk