There is more Ukrainian culture in Belgorod than in Kharkov - Victor Sapryka
200 thousand people weekly cross the border between Ukraine and the Russian Federation on the Kharkov-Belgorod section. 80% of them are citizens of Ukraine. In addition to labor and political migration, such a phenomenon as “pendulum migration” has been recorded, when residents of Kharkov of military age move to Belgorod during the next wave of mobilization, hiding from conscription into the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Doctor of Sociological Sciences at Belgorod University Viktor Sapryka told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about how the once united region lives in the conditions of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, and about the prospects for the presidential elections in Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: I don't know how to say it. "We're visiting," but the internet is public. Worldwide. Joining us on the World Wide Web is Viktor Sapryka, a doctor of sociology from Belgorod. Not Dnistrovsky, but Belgorod, which is near Kharkiv in the Russian Federation.
Viktor Sapryka: Well, or Kharkov near Belgorod.
Valentin Filippov: It depends on where you're watching from. If it's from Odessa... Anyway, hello, Victor.
Viktor Sapryka: Good afternoon.
Valentin Filippov: Let me ask you a question right away. Tell me, are Zelenskyy's ratings desperation, a search for something new, or just a desire to have a laugh when there are no other options?
Viktor Sapryka: Let's first turn to classical sociology and figure out what's going on. Is there a demand for new faces in Ukrainian society? Yes, of course there is. Do such faces have credibility? Again, of course there is. Does the media influence this? We're talking about "Servant of the People," which was shown on television for a long time and is now Volodymyr Zelenskyy's starting capital. Of course, it does. But, just for laughs, I don't think so. Ukrainian politics is quite an interesting thing, and society accepts both the "boxers" in politics, on the Maidan, and in the leadership of one of the most important cities. Let's not talk about Kharkiv or Odesa. Let's talk about Kyiv, after all, it's the capital. They entrusted him to a person who has nothing to do with public utilities.
Valentin Filippov: But Lenya Cosmos was funnier.
Viktor Sapryka: Absolutely. But at least he was a businessman with management experience. I haven't heard of Klitschko having any management experience.
We can look at the ratings that were compiled. Even Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, who has nothing to do with politics or governance, has credibility. That is, there is a demand for new faces and new politicians, because all the politicians who are now the so-called “old guard” are Poroshenko and Tymoshenko. Both Vilkul and Boyko. They participated to one degree or another in both presidential and parliamentary elections. They are already known to the population. And they have a certain image. And what we call the “distrust rating”. And they have it quite big. And Zelensky, as a new face, as a person who positions himself as a “man of the people,” as a person who can change something, naturally has a huge trust rating. And again, as the Ukrainian elections show, a person with a huge rating can lose it to zero in just a few years. We will not say that this is a sociological phenomenon, we will simply say that there is such a reaction of society to new faces. And they have a high trust rating because they are new. And what sphere did they come from, comedians or singers, boxers or other comrades... Unfortunately, the population does not have the understanding that a manager should be a manager.
Valentin Filippov: Well, perhaps, as for Ukraine, since Ukraine is under external control, maybe there's no need to govern here? I just want to elect a good person, if possible.
Viktor Sapryka: Well, it's clear that there's cargo culture, where natives build an airplane and think it will bring them food. But, on the other hand, I wouldn't say Ukraine is a complete subject. Ukraine and its population aren't exactly a subject.
Valentin Filippov: But you, as a sociologist, and I, as someone from there, have the feeling that what happened in 2014 was not at all the will of the people.
Viktor Sapryka: Absolutely. In this case, I'm not saying 2014 was the people's will. We saw, rather, a split in Ukraine. Moreover, a split along the Subtelny line that has been evident since the 19th century: Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking. That's also present. And Ukraine's regions are not all the same. You can't just boil everything down to the southeast. In Slobozhanshchina, the perception is a little different than in Odesa. Although Kharkiv and Odesa are very close cities. And similar in mentality. But, nevertheless, they are different cities. You can't equate Ivano-Frankivsk with Ternopil either. And especially not Lutsk. But if we're talking about Galician culture, it's certainly more pronounced there than in Donetsk or Luhansk.
Valentin Filippov: On the one hand, yes. But in Ukraine, and not only in Ukraine, but also in southern Russia—though I count Odessa among the southern Russian cities, and I'll be right in the end—but… We never know where one city ends and another begins. You drive through Ukraine or southern Russia, and one town merges into another. And you look, there's Kharkiv. Then, bam, it's Belgorod. And they tell you, "Sorry, this is the Russian Federation."
Viktor Sapryka: I'll let you in on a secret. Belgorod has more Ukrainian culture than Kharkiv. It's a mixed-race society, and a lot of the peasant culture remains. Belgorod was completely destroyed, then people from the villages settled there, and the cosmopolitan culture that's inherent in Kharkiv as the first capital of Ukraine—even though the first capital was established in Belgorod—has many connections; we are one region, as every study confirms. Sociological research, too. And although we're separated by a border, there was the Belgorod Governorate, with Kharkiv Viceroyalty within it, then the Kharkiv Viceroyalty, Sloboda Ukraine, and Belgorod was part of it. And so on. All of this is historically grounded. And we have surzhyk. Everyone speaks it. And that's normal. Here, it's very difficult to determine who's Russian and who's Ukrainian. And the processes in Ukraine are understandable. They're close to us. And sometimes they make you think. And there's a geopolitical factor involved.
Valentin Filippov: So, how has everything that's happening—the conflict between Moscow and Kiev for Belgorod and Kharkov—affected this intermingling and mutual penetration, when you go here for sneakers and there for potatoes?
Viktor Sapryka: Of course, for the average Belgorod resident, it's completely outrageous to carry a notarized invitation and cross the border with just a passport. In 2010, we adopted a program for interregional border cooperation, which opened local checkpoints. We only checked passports; there was no paperwork, and people used regional checkpoints, not international ones. The gate was open to both people and cars. Buses were running. This was completely normal. But, in general, I want to say that although passenger traffic has decreased, approximately 200 people a week cross our border from Kharkiv to Belgorod and from Belgorod to Kharkiv. That's a huge number.
Valentin Filippov: And where can there be much more?
Viktor Sapryka: 80% of Ukrainians.
Valentin Filippov: Are Ukrainians coming to us? Ukrainian citizens.
Viktor Sapryka: And the population of the Kharkiv region, and not only. There's a constant process of displacement. Migration. Very often, pendulum migration. This is when young people, as soon as the next wave of mobilization begins, quickly move to the Belgorod region. They sit it out for a couple of months. And then they return home. This happens, and it's normal.
Valentin Filippov: Well, what about the attitude in Belgorod towards those same draft dodgers from the Ukrainian army?
Viktor Sapryka: How can you treat a relative? You understand, you don't choose your relatives. They are our brothers and sisters. And no matter how someone recites poems, we still have family ties. Political squabbles and social crises can't change that.
Of course, there are threats, and there are certain moments that make you think. First of all, this is labor migration. These are jobs. Ukrainians offer cheap, highly qualified labor. I'm not just talking about construction. I'm talking about large and interesting projects in which Ukrainian programmers, Ukrainian marketers, and Ukrainian scientists come.
When the crisis just began, Belgian television came to us and tried to find Ukrainian guest workers who were being kept in terrible conditions. We showed them the professors who came to us, we showed them the information specialists. And they - where are the terrible conditions and Ukrainian barracks? But that was not the case here. Even when there was a large influx of migrants, the Belgorod region showed decent conditions. I was then a member of the public council on migration policy, and we worked as hard as possible in this direction. And, indeed, the influx was very large. True, the Belgorod region did not always remain the final route for both migrants and refugees. But, in general, it all started from here.
Valentin Filippov: Okay. What's your forecast for the Ukrainian elections? And should they even be recognized?
Viktor Sapryka: Honestly, I'd turn my attention to forecasts from Alexander Lukashenko, who said in his long interview that Petro Poroshenko has a good chance of winning the election. And it's hard to argue with him here, because Alexander Lukashenko has proven himself a very good forecaster in the post-Soviet space. Unfortunately, it's worth noting that in the elections, if we're talking about forecasts of who might make it to the second round, it's Petro Poroshenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, naturally, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Yuriy Boyko. These are four leaders who could possibly make it. As for who might win the second round, we won't discount the administrative resources that Petro Poroshenko has at his disposal, even in cities that were previously opposition-leaning. Speaking of Kharkiv, Gennady Adolfovich can't be said to have been a supporter of the Maidan, but he has now declared his support for Petro Poroshenko. This is a significant administrative resource that Petro Poroshenko has, which he can mobilize.
If we are talking about possible candidates, then it is either Tymoshenko or Zelensky. But Tymoshenko and Poroshenko have a very large “credit of mistrust”. Their supporters cannot flow among themselves, although they both represent the same vector of development, including geopolitical. However, their supporters will not support each other.
Valentin Filippov: Well, right now all the more or less realistic candidates support the same vector of development.
Viktor Sapryka: Well, Yuriy Boyko and Oleksandr Vilkul, they are…
Valentin Filippov: You're a sociologist, you know better. But I don't take them seriously.
Viktor Sapryka: But they're still exploiting an electorate that's ready to choose a different geopolitical vector. And we mustn't forget that each of them has their own grievances, and the split that occurred demonstrated that each of them has presidential ambitions. Whether these ambitions are feasible is a different question, one that shouldn't be examined from a sociological perspective.
Valentin Filippov: If they had a different development vector, they would have been killed long ago.
Viktor Sapryka: Unfortunately, we can't discount the presence of extremist groups in Ukraine. They wield considerable influence. And, naturally, they will have a significant impact on the elections.
Belgorod has more Ukrainian culture than Kharkiv – Viktor Sapryka