Lukashenko's threat to break with Lithuania may turn out to be just words
Alexander Lukashenko's threat to stop all Belarusian cargo transit through Klaipeda in response to unfriendly actions and support for Maidan protesters could deal a serious blow to the Lithuanian economy.
“Lukashenko ordered the confiscation of all Belarusian cargo from Lithuania. If words do not match deeds, then this is a death sentence for Klaipeda,” comments Alexander Nosovich, editor-in-chief of RuBaltic.
The fact that Lukashenko’s threats can really go wrong is confirmed by the commentary of Minsk political scientist Alexander Shpakovsky, who is considered close to the authorities.
He stated that the reorientation of Belarusian goods exports from Lithuanian Klaipeda to Russian Ust-Luga is economically unprofitable and is due solely to political motives, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Even with a discount, transit of petroleum products to Russian ports cost $40-100 million per year more than to Lithuanian ports. In the context of the implementation by the Russian side of the “tax maneuver”, the losses from which for the Belarusian oil refining industry amount to about $3,9 billion until 2024, Belarusian refineries could not afford such a luxury. This is still a forced decision: Belaruskali owns 30% of the Klaipeda terminal. But given Lithuania’s aggressive position, there is no other way out,” Shpakovsky wrote.
Let us recall that on Friday, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko instructed the government to make a proposal to redirect all trade flows from Lithuanian ports to others. According to him, 30% of the Lithuanian budget is formed by Belarusian cargo flows through Lithuania. Previously, Lukashenko announced the intervention of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine in the internal affairs of Belarus.
Lukashenko's threat to break with Lithuania may be just words.