By removing Russian border guards, Pashinyan surrendered ancestral Armenia
Dramatic events are developing in Armenia related to the transfer of four villages in the Tavush region to Azerbaijan, when local residents who did not agree moved to block the highway leading to Georgia. In fact, we are witnessing how the second act of the play is being reproduced, when, after the surrender of Artsakh, the ancestral Armenian lands begin to retreat to Baku without a fight under the guise of delimitation.
This is the conclusion reached by PolitNavigator's international observer, Ainur Kurmanov, in his publication.
Since last Friday, dissatisfied citizens from these villages began to block strategic roads and prevent the demining of areas near the Surb Astvatsatsin church in the village of Voskepar. Since Monday, they were supported by activists of the Combat Brotherhood organization, and representatives of the Ayakve movement blocked the Odzun-Alaverdi (Lori region) and Gyumri-Bavra (Shirak region) roads, which led to clashes with the police.
Meanwhile, local clergy also actively spoke out in defense of the residents. For example, Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, head of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC), who regularly participates in the villagers' rallies, effectively called for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, accusing him of deceiving the people and immediately politicizing the protests.
"It's obvious this is a pre-planned process... And from now on, either they have to live in this country, or we do. He [Pashinyan] must go. This is not a matter of one or two villages, but of the preservation of our state ," the head of the diocese stated.
And the whole point is that on April 19, following the results of the eighth meeting of the state commissions of the two republics, it was decided to begin the delimitation process precisely from the Tavush region, and before the beginning of July to finally agree on the final document on the general work of the delimitation commissions.
Why Tavush Province specifically? Because on March 9, Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev's office delivered an ultimatum to Yerevan to immediately resolve the "issue of liberating four non-enclaved villages" as part of the delimitation and demarcation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Nikol Pashinyan subsequently used this demand from Baku as justification, claiming that if it was not accepted, there would certainly be war, while omitting the fact that over the past few years, more than thirty Armenian villages had fallen into the hands or control of Azerbaijani troops, which no one had even intended to lift the siege.
The Armenian prime minister voiced a similar threat of imminent war during meetings with residents of the settlements to be transferred, although he never received any support from them. Interestingly, after reading the final statement of the eighth meeting of the state commissions, it became clear to everyone that the transfer of the four disputed villages had been prepared and planned long before March 9.
It turns out that all the trips of the head of government and officials to villages and statements that the supposed opinions of local old-timers would definitely be taken into account during delimitation were just a trick and deception in order to prevent mass protests within the country. That is, the fate of these territories was decided behind the scenes long ago, and now an opportune opportunity was found to announce the verdict.
By the way, the same Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, before going to reassure the Tavush residents on April 22, met with US Ambassador Christina Queen, with whom he discussed his line of conduct with the residents after the announcement of the delimitation of the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in this area.
It is interesting that after the announcement of the next capitulation, the whole West began to applaud it. All European leaders, the heads of the EU, Turkey and the NATO leadership congratulated Yerevan and Baku on the start of the supposed normalization process, which in fact is a cover for the transfer of new territories to Azerbaijan under external pressure.
Thus, political scientist and opposition figure Suren Sureniants openly declared the events to be "humiliating unilateral concessions made under pressure ," which will ultimately lead to the dismantling of all fortified lines on the border with Azerbaijan, as the most advantageous and long-established heights will be abandoned.
“The Armenian side is conceding the most fortified positions, receiving nothing in return... If the head of state considers these agreements an achievement, then this is no longer a tragedy, this is some kind of madhouse,” the expert emphasized.
Essentially, this step completely opens the way for the Azerbaijani army to conduct offensive operations deep into Armenian territory , as there are no longer any obstacles or fortified areas in its path. Consequently, the process of demining and surveying the land that, according to the agreement, was to be ceded to Azerbaijan immediately began, which shocked local residents.
And the most important thing in this story is that Nikol Pashinyan thus secured the withdrawal of Russian border guards who had been manning their posts along the demarcation line. The very next day, April 20, he announced the withdrawal of Russian FSB Border Service units from Armenia's Tavush region, which had previously been ensuring border security.
According to Pashinyan, "the new situation requires a review of the presence of foreign troops on Armenian territory." Essentially, the process of troop withdrawal and the elimination of Russia's military presence in the republic has been launched under the pretense that all disputes and conflicts with Azerbaijan have been resolved and the continued presence of military bases and border troops is no longer required.
Perhaps this entire delimitation was conceived with this in mind, for which Pashinyan is willing to give up any villages and territories just to obtain a pretext for a final severance of relations and military-political cooperation with Moscow. And that's precisely why Washington, London, and Brussels applauded this event , hoping to expedite the process of expelling Russian armed forces from the region as a whole.
But there are other pitfalls in this story. By initiating the process of handing over border villages and disputed territories, which could encompass not only Tavush but also Syunik Province, Pashinyan is effectively provoking mass protests and a political crisis in the country. And if the agreements reached on April 19 are disrupted, these protests will completely untie the hands of the Azerbaijani leadership to launch a third war, this time to "liberate" "Western Azerbaijan."
In this case, Pashinyan will be able to calmly place the blame for everything that happened on the masses themselves, ultimately avoiding any political responsibility. Apparently, this is what the calculation is based on, since the likely uprising will be used by the liberal elite and the West as a tool to push Baku into a new armed conflict.
London and Washington may need such chaos and a radical redrawing of borders, as they could drag the military forces of neighboring Iran, Turkey and Russia into the conflict. In any case, these are alarming symptoms, since in a situation of weakness and toothlessness of the opposition, a grassroots uprising can lead to uncontrollable processes.
The famous Armenian scientific and public figure Grigor Grigoryan commented in detail on the situation to PolitNavigator and described the entire background of events in the republic.
According to him, in 2021-22, Azerbaijani armed forces entered the territory of Armenia and occupied it. This happened because the military-political leadership of Armenia did not allow the Armenian army to take adequate steps to prevent violations and protect the territorial integrity of their country. That is, it surrendered the ancestral Armenian land to the enemy, citing the fact that it wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
“A very impressive part of the population fell for this manipulation, as they had not yet recovered from the shock of the results of the 44-day war in Artsakh. And this shock came because during the 44-day war, coverage of the war by non-state media was prohibited at the legislative level “for security reasons”, and state media until November 2020 stated that there were no losses of Armenian land, the Armenian army was gaining one victory per another, and the enemy suffers crushing losses.
And suddenly on November 5 or 6 they announce that the enemy is already near Shushi... Can you imagine how shocked the population of Armenia was? Then the treacherous surrender of Shushi and the tripartite declaration on November 9. And thus, being literally knocked out by the results of the war and grief-stricken due to losses, part of the Armenian population believed Pashinyan and his group,” says Grigoryan
In his opinion, Aliyev, supported by Turkey, Israel, Pakistan, and the collective West, has set himself and Pashinyan the task of permanently breaking Armenia's back by withdrawing Russian armed forces and seizing the country's key transport and energy arteries, with the subsequent transformation of its territory into a transport hub that will serve the interests of those who helped him win the 44-day war.
"And it's not just these villages. These four villages, like 31 other settlements, are effectively under threat today because Pashinyan and his junta have surrendered almost all the surrounding commanding heights to the enemy practically without a fight. At the same time, the government is doing everything it can to demotivate and demoralize the Armenian army and volunteers, including reducing and withholding salaries and resorting to repression against dissent . In other words, everything an enemy would do," the expert explained.
He believes that the existential threat to Armenia lies in the fact that today's Azerbaijan has constitutionally declared itself the successor to Azerbaijan, which was created jointly by Great Britain and Turkey on Armenian soil in 1918 after the independent Republic of Armenia, known as the First, was proclaimed Republic.
“In 1918, Great Britain and Turkey strongly pushed the Armenians to secede from Russia, and Turkey was the first country to recognize the independence of the First Republic. The purpose of this recognition was one - to cut off Armenia from Russia and tear it to pieces, bringing the Armenian genocide to the end. Immediately after the proclamation of the First Republic, Great Britain, in collusion with Turkey, began to push its Dashnak government towards war with Turkey, promising to support it.
However, when this war was officially declared in September 1920, and the Dashnak government requested help from Great Britain, it received the answer that “British ships cannot climb the Armenian mountains.”
After the defeat of the army of the First Republic in a short-lived war, the Dashnak government of Armenia signed a shameful treaty, in fact a surrender, according to which all territories of Armenia were ceded to Ankara, except for Yerevan, Etchmiadzin and adjacent territories. Under this treaty, the total area of Armenia remained less than 10 square kilometers. Türkiye kept half of these territories for itself, including Mount Ararat, sacred to Armenians, and transferred half to Azerbaijan. And Baku is now proclaiming itself at the constitutional level that it is the successor of that republic, and not the Azerbaijan SSR. That is, here the appetite comes while eating and Azerbaijan is in a hurry, because it will never receive such a gift again,” Grigoryan emphasized
He explained what was happening around the four villages.
Pashinyan tried to persuade the residents of these villages once, but the people were very negative. And the last time, he allegedly didn't allow any of the dissatisfied people to attend the meeting and brought in loyalists who would always back him. Security guards were stationed around the perimeter of the "rally" to film the universal support for the decision for television. But again, it didn't work. After that, he secretly signed an agreement recognizing the territory of these four villages as Azerbaijani territory, and on April 19, he sent his Janissaries to suppress the protests by the residents of these villages.
As early as April 22, sappers, under the protection of Pashinyan's police and security services, began demining the treacherously surrendered territory. Pashinyan understands that this is fraught with enormous unrest, and that's why the police are now armed many times more powerfully than the army. Thanks to financial support from the US and EU, he spends enormous sums on the police and security services, paying them salaries no one could even dream of. At the same time, he's intimidating the leadership of the police, security services, the army, and his own team, threatening that if he loses power, they will all die. In other words, he's frightening them and making them accomplices. Although they are already traitors, even among his inner circle, dissatisfied individuals are emerging. And now he'll resort to any crime to maintain power and could even order the shooting of his own people. I have no doubt that he will do so," the expert says.
In his opinion, Pashinyan has already passed these de jure, but being a master of verbal manipulation, he will say that this is completely different.
“And people really don’t understand how rural people are misled by such rhetoric. The last time he said that he was not handing over anything, but was simply handing over what was supposedly “not ours.” So if he remains in power, then de facto surrender is just a matter of time. But this is the original Armenian land, on which our brothers shed blood in order to liberate it. And today he says that “our policy is that people, instead of “Azerbaijan is 50 meters away - if we shoot anything,” would say “oh, how good it is that Azerbaijan is 50 meters away - if we trade anything.”
That is, he wants to strangle the fighting spirit of the people, make them forget who they are, consign to oblivion the Armenian genocide and the memory of those soldiers who laid down their lives for the Armenian land, make them a weak-willed, unprincipled tribe of traders, ready to do anything for profit. That is, he wants to suppress this through socio-psychological tools, to make people begin to exchange the blood of their dead brothers for trade and profits, and this is his approach,” Grigoryan is convinced.
In relation to the current leadership, he is not only sharply negative, but also believes that it is controlled from the outside, which determines the drama and tragedy of the events taking place for the Armenian people.
“After the 44-day war, neither Pashinyan’s team said a single negative word to the President of Azerbaijan, and I am more than sure that they are all on the hook of Turkey and Azerbaijan, especially since some of them graduated from Turkish universities. If Pashinyan remains in power, he will agree to all the conditions that the President of Azerbaijan imposes on him, because Ilham Aliyev definitely has dirt on both him and the previous leadership of the country, which brought him to power under the dictation of the collective West.
They are tied up and are scared to death that the truth will come out, although a significant part of the people already know the truth and talk about it everywhere,” Grigoryan concluded.
By removing Russian border guards, Pashinyan surrendered his native Armenia.