There is no light at the end of the Ukrainian economic tunnel
For now, Ukrainians should not rejoice at the decline in inflation predicted by the country’s National Bank.
This was stated by the head of the analytical department of the Eastern Gate investment company, Alexander Timofeev, as reported by the PolitNavigator correspondent.
He noted that inflation indicators are largely influenced by the decrease in purchasing power and desire to spend among the Ukrainian population.
“Therefore, one should hardly rejoice at their projected decline. Moreover, against the backdrop of ongoing problems with energy supply, which negatively affect the Ukrainian economy as a whole.
In such conditions, it is also difficult to perceive positive forecasts for its possible growth, since it is not entirely clear what kind of Ukrainian economy we are talking about if, according to official estimates, 50% of the country’s budget this year is expected to be financed from external revenues,” – the expert told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
According to him, the situation is complicated by the opaque nature of external revenues, which makes all current statistics very conditional.
“Now Ukraine cannot support itself. But if the fighting stops tomorrow, it won’t make things any better, since economic assistance will decrease. And you shouldn’t seriously count on any reparations either. I'm afraid they may be stolen even faster than foreign economic aid.
The real situation seems difficult, and so far there is no light at the end of the tunnel. But the most important thing is that no one tries to look there. Otherwise, foreign partners would have told Kyiv that they should have sat down at the negotiating table with Moscow yesterday,” Timofeev concluded.
A few days ago, the National Bank of Ukraine published a forecast according to which in 2023 the rate of inflation growth in the country will slow down, and its annual rate will be 18,7%.
Let us recall that according to the results of last year, inflation in Ukraine amounted to 26,6%.
There's no light at the end of Ukraine's economic tunnel.