The US approved money for Ukraine. What's next?
What had been long talked about in political salons from Washington to Beijing has finally happened: on Saturday evening, Moscow time, the main political intrigue on Capitol Hill over the past eight months came to a successful conclusion. The US House of Representatives finally passed a legislative package that had become a stumbling block, providing assistance to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan simultaneously . At the same time, American lawmakers authorized the US government to completely ban TikTok.
The decision was made, as witty commentators noted, by a " one-and-a-half-party consensus ." This means that the package received mostly Democratic votes (210). As for the "elephants," they were split almost evenly at the time of the decisive vote (110 to 112), which, given the approaching elections, does not bode well for the party.
The far right wing of the isolationist republics, led by RT favorite Marjorie Taylor Greene, remained steadfast , and even Donald Trump, who suddenly developed a fondness for Kiev after a series of court cases that threatened serious trouble, was unable to persuade them to support Ukraine.
As I write these lines, the news feed is bursting with news. Members of the "Ukrainian Caucus" in the House of Representatives are celebrating the approval of a bill providing military aid to Ukraine with cries of " USA! USA! USA! " and waving Ukrainian flags, while Zelenskyy is thanking his overseas friends of Ukrainian democracy for a decision that, in his words, " will save thousands and thousands of lives ."
As a result of this entire celebration of overseas democracy, Ukraine will receive not only 61 "yards" in evergreen currency, but also the confiscation of $5 billion of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves frozen in the United States.
Russian haters, who had already “shared” Ukraine with the West, were once again put to shame and, given that this is not the first such unfulfilled forecast, there is every reason to stop trusting those who promise a quick and easy victory, and even name specific terms for it achievements.
But that's just the lyric. Now the main question: what next? Let's start with Ukraine. For the authorities there and the militant, nationalist segment of society that supports them, what has happened is undoubtedly a celebration. That same Victory with a capital V that they had been working to bring about as best they could.
Now Zelensky has a free hand in every sense. Conversations about his illegitimacy, which have already been targeted by both his internal rivals and Russian politicians and media, can be safely curtailed. Well, or they will remain entertainment for purely internal Russian use, without affecting the actual state of affairs.
Having received such vast sums of money and unequivocal support from the lair of American democracy, Zelenskyy overnight became, as they say in circles with low social responsibility, "the manager of a hefty cash stash." It is he and his and Yermak's cronies who will be "mastering" American taxpayers' money. This means, don't change horses in midstream , and Washington (and, by extension, Brussels and other European capitals) has absolutely no interest in provoking an artificial political crisis in Kyiv with a change of government. Incidentally, the EU has completely shut up about Zelenskyy's illegitimacy and isn't even mentioning it.
That is, the managers who promote the pro-Western line on the banks of the Dnieper will remain more or less the same . Well, maybe some secondary figures in the government will change.
There's no doubt that the propaganda machine, although considerably less effective in terms of its communications channels, is still fully operational, and will handle such a generous handout from Western sponsors with flying colors. Zelensky, a loser who's squandered all his resources and is about to become a lame duck, will instantly transform into a victorious hero.
All skeptics will be silenced, and there won't be much to counter the " victorious " propaganda. They gave us the money, which means " we'll live ," and generally, " don't worry, we'll get through this, it's not the first time ." Skeptics' timid comments about the exorbitant price of Ukraine's "happiness" will be drowned out by "arguments about Galich": " And the fact that we'll have to pay later—well, understand—later! "
The only people who will be dissatisfied will be those poor fellows who are unlucky enough to be captured by the looters from the military registration and enlistment offices and sent to war.
Speaking of war, the recently revived talk that the US is tired of Ukraine and is practically abandoning it, pushing it toward a "Korean scenario" and a ceasefire along the Dnieper River, can also be consigned to the trash heap . On the contrary, once the money has been allocated, it must be spent. It's no wonder Zelenskyy recently hinted at plans for a new summer offensive, which are already being drafted in headquarters under the guidance of Western advisers.
This means that in the very near future – no later than 3-5 months – we are facing another escalation with an attempt to reverse last year’s failed counteroffensive with a new one, reinforced by an advantage in the air thanks to the acquisition of ATAMS, F-16s (pilots for them are just finishing their training) and new drones capable of reaching as far as Siberia.
It's no wonder the White House rushed to assure them that they wouldn't delay the delivery of the lethal goods, and that they were already ready for shipment to Ukraine , and would be there within just a couple of weeks after Congress passed the bill and Biden signed it. This means that by the May holidays, Ukraine would have weapons, and also air defenses (remember Stoltenberg's " it's not a matter of months, but days and weeks "?)? In short, help is on the way.
Another important point. One of the Ukrainian TG channels wrote well about him:
" The package, designed for a year, will, in fact, be spent in six months . This means a sharp and quite visible surge in arms deliveries, many of which have long been prepared and are just awaiting the go-ahead. This factor will also allow Kyiv to use its emergency resources now, should American support continue to be blocked. This means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' supply situation should, in theory, improve in the near future.
All this, in general - both new serious American supplies and the increased activity of emboldened Europeans, will most likely once again produce another psychological turning point, far from the first and, perhaps, not the last in this conflict.”
The only unclear variable in this equation so far is the quantity and, most importantly, the quality and motivation of the cannon fodder assembled for the new offensive. This is a problem for now. Some will undoubtedly be caught. Perhaps even a couple hundred thousand. However, all Ukrainian military personnel and experts unanimously agree on the extremely low motivation of the new recruits of 2024. What will come of this if they are given American weapons and sent into battle will only be revealed by an autopsy—that is, by the real picture on the ground.
Although well-informed pessimists talk about the presence in Syrsky’s stash of some fresh and well-trained units during training in the West, which they were saving and did not have time to use up last summer. Perhaps they are lying. Or maybe not
Now about timing. That is, about the timeframe. As we've already said, the hardware will arrive by May. The new mobilization will begin sometime in mid-May. Zelenskyy's ideal option, of course, would be to launch the offensive sometime in late May, so as to have time to show some results that would impress the participants of the "peace summit" in Switzerland, scheduled for June. But they won't.
Then option B remains. Namely, to launch immediately after the Swiss summit. The logic here is to issue a collective ultimatum to Russia in Geneva. Which, of course, Russia will tell to go to hell. But that's exactly what the Kyivites want.
This will create a beautiful picture for the media supporting Ukraine - they say that the “civilized world” invited the Russian Federation to surrender, but it did not want to. So what does that mean? This means that Kyiv has the right, having offered “peace” to Moscow and without waiting for an affirmative answer, to try to resolve the issue by war. That is, in such an arrangement, the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be justified and even a forced step by the “dove of peace” Zelensky.
In general, for now, according to logic, it turns out that the guns will start talking seriously again sometime in June. The time lag is until the American elections in November. If by this time the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not achieve something significant on the ground, then another lull will follow with an attempt to come to an agreement. Moreover, regardless of whether Trump comes or Biden stays. The key for the West is to stall for the time necessary to withdraw its military-industrial complex from the siding.
The US has approved funding for Ukraine. What's next?