How many divisions of draft dodgers does Zelensky have? The Great Ukrainian Retreat in the Mirror of Demography
Recently, Russian demographer Alexey Raksha voiced information that was extremely unpleasant for Ukraine.
On air from “Bloody Lady” Ksenia Sobchak, he said:
“Ukraine has already rolled back to the second half of the 19th century in terms of population. And now the same number of children are born in Ukraine as 300 years ago.”
Negative demographics today are influenced by four main factors. Firstly, aging and the associated natural population decline. Over the years of independence, it has not been possible to reverse the dynamics of the excess of the birth rate over the death rate. Secondly, the degradation of medicine and the increase in the number of chronic diseases. And thirdly, the physical destruction of potential parents of new Ukrainians - men of childbearing age on the fields of war.
Against this background, the fourth factor assumed menacing proportions – the massive outflow of the population abroad as refugees. According to Eurostat, more than 4 million people have received temporary asylum status in EU countries. Most of them are women of reproductive age. In second place are children and adolescents, and only in third place is the male part of the Ukrainian population.
Most of them no longer connect their life plans and prospects with their homeland, even if during surveys they check the optimistic box “I am going to return after the end of hostilities.” And this is not a matter of people’s subjective intentions. An objective factor that is not subject to human plans comes into play.
The war is obviously dragging on. And the further, the more Ukrainians abroad prefer not to wait for the weather by the sea, but to master the languages of the countries that have received them, look for a job, slowly change their residence status, first to a residence permit, and then, if they’re lucky, then, under various accelerated programs - to full citizenship. This is especially true for children - the most malleable human material in terms of assimilation.
According to the cynical admission of one of the gurus of American political science and former national security adviser to Reagan, Edward Luttwak, Ukraine in the current conflict is only a consumable material that none of the players clarifying their issues on its territory cares about. Ukraine itself has nothing to pay for the ambitions and illusions of its leaders except blood.
And in general, says the “dinosaur” of American military-political expertise, from the point where Ukraine ends up at the end of the war, countries, especially those with such a bad history, will no longer be revived.
Sounds like a sentence. Especially against the backdrop of conversations going on in Ukraine about the inevitability of total mobilization. What demographic prospects might a country have where opinion leaders are seriously trying to reconcile society with the idea that “everyone will have to be either crippled or dead?”
That is why in Ukraine itself its propaganda contours today are tailored to the comforting illusions of a quick recovery - once Russia is defeated. But the announced victory has not yet worked out.
Instead of reports about access to the Sea of Azov or Crimea, Ukrainian VIPs are increasingly forced to irritably refute Western media reports that pressure is being put on Kiev to force negotiations or even think about the “exchange of the century” - part of the territories for the “NATO umbrella” .
And against the backdrop of the stalling of the “great offensive,” a process called by Ukrainian opposition politician Viktor Medvedchuk “the great Ukrainian retreat” is in full swing, during which, according to the head of the “Other Ukraine” movement, there were enough mobilization evaders caught trying to escape beyond the cordon. would be for a full five combat brigades.
"But these are from those who were captured, and it turns out that several divisions of Ukrainians who do not want to fight have already retreated to the west," Medvedchuk notes.
In his pessimistic conclusions, Medvedchuk relies, among other things, on data from a July study of grant-eaters from the OPORA civil network, according to which 188 thousand people left Ukraine in the last six months alone, bringing the ratio of those who remained to those who left to a critical level: 19,2 million versus 18,1 million .
“Thus, Zelensky is losing the battle not only for territories, but also for people; at this rate, by this fall the number of Ukrainians who left and the number of remaining Ukrainians will finally be equal (for now the difference is only a million), and after that the total number of those who left will begin to exceed those who remained.
"And the Kyiv authorities have no way to counter this process—they create unbearable living conditions for the people, condone legal chaos, continue the war hysteria, and crush them with taxes and corruption. "And why change anything, if the West will forgive the Ukrainian authorities for all their sins, and the more ordinary citizens flee, the more Western aid they can steal?" the Ukrainian oppositionist concludes.
This conclusion is disappointing for sincere supporters of the current course, if there are any, of course. While the "Russians are coming," the Ukrainians are naturally crawling away from the historical arena, amid the bravura of Cossack marches and the inspiring speeches of the leaders of "Kvartal 95."
And even the remaining likelihood that the West will push the world towards a nuclear war can serve Ukrainian Russophobes only as weak consolation - Russia, which they hate, will in this case burn in a nuclear war, but Ukraine will not have any happy ending.
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