The situation in Idlib: the end of the war?
Since the dwindling forces of the Islamist barmalei began to flock and accumulate in the province of Idlib, it has become clear that the war in Syria is coming to its logical conclusion.
It seemed that a little more, and the last stronghold of frostbitten Islamists would be finally cleared of the terrorist scum.
In recent days, the forces of the Syrian government army, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, have carried out a strategic offensive operation along the M5 highway.
M5 is a strategic highway connecting Aleppo with Damascus, and the main task facing the Syrians was to completely take control of it. But to do this, they needed to liberate Serakib, the last major settlement captured by ISIS, located at the crossroads of the M5 and M4 highways connecting Aleppo with Latakia.
American and, especially, Turkish interventionists are preventing the Syrians from developing their success. On January 31, Turkey introduced about 200 armored vehicles and additional infantry units into Idlib province. In the first days of February, Turkish reinforcements set up four strongholds on the roads leading to Seraqib to block the advance of Syrian troops towards the city.
Turkish column of armored vehicles in Idlib
The Turkish military reported their movements to their Russian colleagues via a hotline, “forgetting” to notify the Syrians about their actions.
On February 3, the advancing Syrian troops and the Turks from their strongholds exchanged artillery strikes, resulting in casualties on both sides.
The new Turkish strongholds were the focus of intense fighting, with one of them coming under Syrian artillery fire, killing eight Turkish soldiers.
The Turks did not remain in debt, firing at the advancing Syrians with 155 mm howitzers and 120 mm mortars. According to the official statement of the Turkish Ministry of Defense, about 300 ammunition was expended during the return fire, and the Syrians lost 76 people killed. According to other sources, more than a hundred Syrian soldiers were killed.
Damascus denies the Turkish data. The SANA news agency stated that Turkish artillery fire was ineffective and did not lead to casualties. The Syrians simply bypassed the strongholds, reaching the outskirts of Serakib and simultaneously liberating 22 settlements. At the same time, it is reported that the Syrian troops fought not with the Turks, but with the combat formations of the ISIS fighters.
On February 4, an angry Erdogan spoke on Turkish national television, declaring that Ankara would under no circumstances escalate the conflict with Moscow over Idlib, but at the same time threatened to return fire for strikes on the Turkish military and not allow the “Syrian regime” to gain control over the city of Serakib.
Reuters, citing a source from the Turkish presidential administration, reported that on the same day there was a telephone conversation between Putin and Erdogan, during which the citizen Sultan indignantly told his counterpart that the shelling of Turkish soldiers by the Syrians “undermines joint efforts to establishing peace in this Middle Eastern republic."
Apparently, as a result of the joint actions of the Syrians and the Russian Aerospace Forces, the position of the Turkish and American interventionists in Idlib is becoming precarious, since, in parallel with statements about “undermining joint peace efforts,” the American and Turkish sides raised a coordinated cry about the “terrifying humanitarian catastrophe that broke out in the fault of Assad’s advancing troops in Idlib.”
At a press conference at the White House, US Special Representative for the Middle East James Jeffrey said that the Syrian offensive caused the flight of 700 thousand civilians from Idlib to the Turkish border. Erdogan slowly and sadly told the press that “we are already talking about almost a million refugees.”
Commenting on these statements, experts on the Middle East note that blackmail by refugees is quite in the spirit of the Turkish president, who is accustomed to frightening the European Union, neighbors, Syria, and now Russia with the influx of hordes of dispossessed people.
As for James Jeffrey’s statement, observers are convinced that his data on refugees was taken out of thin air, or obtained with the help of the “white helmets”, which there is not a single reason to trust.
Turkish checkpoint preventing the Syrian advance along the M-50 highway
According to the Russian Center for Reconciliation of Warring Parties, in total, as a result of the fighting in December 2019, the number of internally displaced persons throughout Syria reached 389 thousand. From the front line, refugees fled to the north or northwest of Idlib province.
As for the UN, there are no staff in Idlib, which is why they have to operate on data collected by local sources, among which there are also many “white helmets” or terrorist accomplices who benefit from distorting information in order to exert international political pressure on Damascus, as well as with the aim of extracting humanitarian and financial assistance.
It is noteworthy that the Turkish and American press again began to hysteria that the strikes of the Syrian Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Forces were directed exclusively against civilian objects and social infrastructure.
It is no less characteristic that against the advancing Syrian troops along the M5 highway, as if on command, the hushed remnants of ISIS and other nusrachi intensified hostilities.
The Syrian army entered Serakib
Interesting information was published by experts from the Russian Foreign Ministry on the pages of the International Affairs magazine.
Observers believe that the situational nature of Russian-Turkish cooperation has come to an end and there will no longer be any rapprochement of positions, since it does not give any positive changes, and increasingly leads to an exchange of reproaches, mainly from the Turkish side.
Ankara is increasingly expressing its dissatisfaction with the actions (or, in Turkish formulations, “inaction”) of the Russian side. So, in November last year, Erdogan, and after him, representatives of the Turkish Foreign Ministry began to rant that Russia had not fulfilled its obligations to withdraw Kurdish armed forces in northern Syria, in response to which official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense Sergei Konashenkov expressed bewilderment, since Russia had not took on such obligations.
Soon, Sergei Lavrov reported that the Turkish partners, in a conversation with the Russian ambassador to Turkey, assured that all the previously expressed reproaches were nothing more than a misunderstanding, that Ankara was happy with Moscow’s efforts in Syria, and there could even be no talk of resuming Operation Peace Spring. (Turkish punitive operation against Syrian Kurds with an attempt to create a buffer zone in northern Syria).
However, less than a week passed before this statement was disavowed by a statement from the Turkish Security Council chaired by Erdogan himself, who promised that “the operation will last until the set goals are fully achieved.”
As for Idlib, Erdogan jumps from verbal cajoling to direct threats: “If the situation in Idlib does not normalize, then we will move on to action. We sincerely want to achieve stability in Syria. The political process must be carried out quickly and fairly. We will not hesitate to do whatever is required for this, including the use of military force.”
In Ankara they even mutter something about “walking on tanks to Damascus” if they are prevented from “achieving peace and stability” and even begin to advise Moscow “not to stand in the way.”
Turks report downed Syrian helicopter
The United States and NATO, without hoping to return Turkey to their orbit in the near future, are nevertheless considering options on how to turn the “Turkish developments” in Syria to their advantage. Although, for example, French President Macron frankly does not like Erdogan or his actions in Syria and Libya.
It should be noted that the unfriendly attitude of the Erdogan regime towards Russia is growing the more, the greater the success of the Syrian offensive in Idlib.
On February 8, SAR troops recaptured the key city of Serakib, located at the intersection of the M4 and M5 highways, from the ISIS. The Syrian opposition group Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) announced that government troops have established control over the entire section of the M5 highway in Idlib, and to restore communication between the two largest cities in Syria, they only have to recapture 30 km of the M5 highway in Aleppo province.
fresh. Turkish armored vehicles destroyed in Idlib
In the Turkish media, despite the cheerful reports about powerful retaliatory strikes, there are notes of panic: Turkish politicians are calling on NATO to provide support to Turkey in connection with the worsening situation in Idlib. Earlier, Erdogan called on Putin to put pressure on Bashar al-Assad so that the Syrian army stops its offensive along the M5 highway and withdraws troops from Turkish strongholds. Naive…
From NATO, American permanent representative Kay Beli Hutchinson has so far grunted in support of Turkey, calling “either Russian or Syrian attacks” on the Turkish military “unthinkable” and “beyond any limits.” The rest of the participants remained silent...
Judging by information from the Anatolian News Agency, on February 11, Erdogan urgently gathered his generals to discuss a plan for further action after the loss of Idlib. It is reported that in the Turkish province of Hatay, neighboring Syria, there is a concentration of Turkish troops for the transfer to Idlib: 120 Leopard tanks, many trucks with ammunition, as well as commando units.
Turks hit Syrian targets in retaliation
The future plans of Erdogan’s military in Syria are unknown. Angered by the loss of Serakib and the M5 highway, the Turkish military has so far confirmed its intention to bombard everything that, in their opinion, may pose a threat to the interventionists.
It looks like impotent rage. However, we'll see.
English version :: Read in English The situation in Idlib: is the war over?