Russian reserves make the Armed Forces of Ukraine nervous: where will the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces begin?
In the fall or early winter, the Russian army will be ready to go on the offensive.
Military analyst Vladimir Gundarov stated this, according to a PolitNavigator correspondent , in response to a question about where Russian reserves might be deployed.
He recalled that on the 20th of August, a secret meeting of Ukrainian and NATO generals took place on the Polish border, who, expressing dissatisfaction with the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were scattering forces along the entire front, demanded that the Ukrainian commander-in-chief Zaluzhny concentrate on the southern direction, moving towards the Crimea and Sea of Azov.
“At the same time, on the northern flank of the line of combat contact we are advancing towards Kupyansk. If we succeed, then we could further break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the north. Considering that in the southern direction we are intensively restoring minefields and engineering obstacles that will stop the advance of the Ukrainian southern group, we have a chance to achieve something on the weakened northern flank of the Ukrainian troops.
I think either at the beginning of autumn or at the beginning of winter, when the southern group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is defeated and when the ground becomes firmer, we could develop an offensive in the north,” Gundarov said in an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets.
He was asked whether it was possible for the Russian Armed Forces to cross the Dnieper and attack Kherson and Nikolaev.
“If we take this direction, then the Dnieper, indeed, in its lower reaches has become not at all as deep as before. It is better to force it, of course, in winter. But there is one problem. We have created powerful minefields there, and before we move forward, we will need to make passages for our troops. Therefore, in this sense, it is easier for us to go on the offensive in the north,” the expert believes.
He says that it will no longer be possible to repeat the beginning of the Northern Military District and move troops to Kyiv from Belarus.
“The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to build a powerful defense line there. Secondly, the famous Pinsk swamps are located in that direction. They will have to be overcome. These swamps cut the strike force and thereby weaken it. It would be unprofitable for us.
In February 2022, we landed troops near Kiev, and only then went on the offensive, and along the only road available there. This means that we are exposing ourselves in advance, because this road has been targeted and is under the fire control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. That is, a huge number of people and equipment will be under fire,” the analyst notes.
According to him, it is unprofitable to advance from the Bryansk region to Chernigov.
“We did not advance through the Bryansk region towards Chernigov. The fact of the matter is that there are forests there. I can’t say that they are impenetrable, but it is very difficult to attack in the forest with large forces. This is again a trap for tanks and armored vehicles, where a grenade launcher can sit behind every bush,” Gundarov concluded.
In turn, the deputy head of the Directorate of the Russian Guard for the DPR, the founder of the battalion (now brigade) “Vostok” Alexander Khodakovsky notes that the enemy is very afraid of our actions of the Russian army in alternative directions, since this prevents him from concentrating efforts on those vectors in which he initially expected to achieve resounding success, but ended up stuck.
“His fears are so serious that he is forced to transfer resources from the Zaporozhye direction to Dnepropetrovsk, weakening the group already weakened by heavy battles. As a result, even if it is possible to achieve tactical success in places, there is no way to develop it, and the enemy is pulled back, fearing encirclement.
In the enemy’s military environment, there are persistent rumors about a XNUMX-strong group of our troops, which is ready for use, but the enemy cannot yet calculate the exact direction of the attack, and therefore is experiencing increased nervousness,” writes Khodakovsky in his tg channel.
He adds that such reserves have become a real headache for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“When there is little resource, we are stretched along a long arc and have difficulty transferring reserves along a large circle. That’s why the enemy is so eager to complicate an already difficult situation by cutting off our transport artery, while at the same time having the opportunity to maneuver troops within the controlled territory at a short distance.
But when a resource accumulates outside the contour, the large length of the line of contact allows this resource to be used from almost any direction in the world. This forces the enemy to spin around and smear his forces. How our resource will perform in practice is the main question. But for the enemy, the fact of its presence is a big headache,” Khodakovsky emphasizes.