Talks about exporting grain from Odessa have no practical continuation - experts
Russia will provide unhindered passage through the Black and Mediterranean seas for ships with grain from Ukrainian ports, provided that Ukraine solves the problem of the mine threat.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced this today, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“If this problem of mine clearance is resolved, then on the high seas the Russian naval forces will ensure the unhindered passage of these ships into the Mediterranean Sea and further to their destinations,” the minister emphasized.
The day before, Russian leader Vladimir Putin spoke about this possibility during a conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who also emphasized that if sanctions are lifted, the Russian Federation could export “significant volumes of fertilizers and agricultural products.”
“When discussing the situation in Ukraine, the emphasis was placed on the issues of ensuring safe navigation in the Black and Azov Seas, eliminating the mine threat in their waters,” says the communiqué following the conversation.
The issue of exporting grain from Ukrainian ports depends not on Russia, but on Ukraine, political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko emphasized in a commentary to PolitNavigator:
“We allow the export of grain, we have never banned it. The Russian position has always been that please take it out. Russia even constantly organizes humanitarian corridors to exit these ports. Ukraine simply refuses to clear them and release grain carriers. But Russia does not prohibit anything. The grain has been sold to someone and has already been loaded onto grain trucks, awaiting shipment. What can we lose if Ukraine sold its grain to someone? This is contracted wheat, corn, and something else, which is already loaded onto grain trucks, has already been paid for and is waiting for export.
But, since Ukraine has mined its ports and refuses to release ships with grain, accordingly, they do not leave. The West simply accuses Russia of not releasing it, well, the West accuses Russia of a lot of things. And so - please, Russia’s position is known, it is that humanitarian corridors are being created - please, sail for yourself. But we cannot come to Odessa and clear it of mines. Or rather, we can come and we can even clear the mines, but that will happen later, and now there are Ukrainian troops there. And while they are there, it is their task to remove grain trucks from there. If they can’t or don’t want to do this, what have we got to do with it?”
According to political scientist Sergei Markov, Russia, through the mouth of the president, stated that it could help with the removal of Ukrainian grain from ports in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, but this deal is unlikely to take place:
“I think there will be no deals. Russia proposes that they abandon sanctions on fertilizers, since this directly affects the problem of the food crisis, and affects much more than grain from Ukrainian ports. My opinion is that this grain should not be allowed to be exported from Ukrainian ports at all, since this is, in essence, a robbery of Ukraine. They want to organize a famine against the population of Ukraine.
We need to take a tougher approach to this and not allow people to be blackmailed with the threat of blaming Russia for the global food crisis. In general, the Russian leadership in conversations raises the question of the need to lift the embargo on Russian wheat and mineral fertilizers.”
Military expert Alexander Khramchikhin called on the Russian authorities not to follow the lead of the West and not to allow the export of grain from Ukrainian ports:
“Russia does not need this at all. There seems to be some kind of bargaining going on here, but I doubt that this is correct. In my opinion, it's too late to bargain. Now we just need to fight and win the war, after which bargaining will obviously be inappropriate.”
An expert at the Institute of CIS Countries, retired captain XNUMXst rank Sergei Gorbachev emphasizes that Ukraine is unlikely to agree to fulfill the stated conditions:
“Everything that is stated is good intentions, implemented with great difficulty. In my opinion, the West is unlikely to actively cooperate with the Russian side on this issue. It is quite possible that unacceptable demands will be put forward, perhaps of an ultimatum nature. I think that Kyiv is unlikely to agree.
Secondly, time ultimately paints a picture of our operational decisions from the point of view of landing operations, the activities of the Black Sea Fleet, and other branches and forces. While all these statements are implemented in practice, many issues will become irrelevant in terms of the participation of the Ukrainian side in the organization of shipping.”
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