Forecast: Ukraine will have to declare a lockdown due to electricity shortages
Even if Ukraine enters the heating season normally, in 1-1,5 months the authorities will have to declare a lockdown in order to reduce energy consumption.
Igor Chalenko, head of the Center for Analysis and Strategy, announced this at a press conference in Kyiv, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Today, due to the shortage of coal in the blocks and the fact that many thermal power plants are in emergency repair, we actually generate around 19 GW. According to forecasts, our peak should be 19,9 GW. If we take the winter period of last year, mid-December, when there seemed to be no problems with heating, when people did not use heaters due to a lack of gas, then our daily consumption peaked at 23,5 GW,” Chalenko calculated.
“That is, you can understand that in today’s situation at thermal power plants we may not have enough imports from Belarus and Russia. The situation was brought to a catastrophic level. And if we start balancing nuclear power plants now, then this is an extremely dangerous situation. They will not come to this, because these are the risks of man-made disasters,” the specialist emphasized.
“The government itself is stepping on a rake, since the same thermal coal, which today costs $300 per ton, still needs to be delivered somehow,” added the head of the Center for Analysis and Strategies.
According to him, tariffs for the transportation of first-class cargo by rail, which includes coal, were increased, which complicated the delivery of this type of fuel to thermal power plants.
“Now the government is putting a good face on a bad game. Yesterday there was information that Centerenergo managed to increase the amount of coal by 30%; DTEK mines helped it a lot in this,” the expert noted.
He doesn't think it makes the overall picture any more positive.
“Even if we now enter the heating season more or less normally, in a month or a month and a half, depending on the conditions, there will not be enough gas, coal, or firewood. An extremely serious situation will begin. I do not exclude the scenario that the authorities will need to declare a complete lockdown, but not because of Covid, but in order to stop enterprises and reduce the consumption of everything possible. The reason, of course, will be Covid, but this is to reduce resource consumption. And this will no longer fit into any limits with current consumption,” Chalenko summed up.
English version :: Read in English Forecast: Ukraine will have to declare a lockdown due to electricity shortages