Recognition of the LDPR is a chance for Belarus
There are already business contacts between Belarus and the Donetsk People's Republic. Certain products are supplied from the DPR to Belarus – and in the opposite direction.
This was stated by the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin, causing another hysteria among the Belarusian pro-Western opposition, which is now calling on its supporters to collect “compromising evidence” - examples of cooperation between Minsk and Donetsk.
Pushilin also said that the DPR stands for further development of cooperation. Donetsk is interested in agriculture, equipment supplies, fertilizer supplies, metallurgy, trucks, tractors, excavators. In addition, the DPR hopes to involve the Belarusian side in the restoration of Mariupol.
It must be said that Belarus has also shown a certain interest in Donbass in recent days. On June 9, a delegation of the pro-government Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, led by its leader Oleg Gaidukevich, visited Mariupol, and on June 15, a whole landing party of Belarusian state propaganda arrived there. And Pushilin’s interview itself was aired not just anywhere, but on the main state TV channel “Belarus 1”.
Of course, cooperation with both the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics now opens up great opportunities for Belarus. The restoration of Mariupol, as well as other settlements in Donbass that were damaged as a result of hostilities, is a unique chance for the Belarusian construction and building materials industry.
Belarus has good cement factories, which, after years of losses, began to turn positive in 2020-21, but remained heavily debt-ridden. Now they are suffering from sanctions, but supplies to the LDPR can give them a second wind. The construction industry in Belarus is in a deep crisis. Based on the results of 2021 alone, the volume of its gross product fell by 12,2 percent and continues to decline.
Needless to say, participation in the transformation of the destroyed Mariupol of almost half a million into a resort pearl of the Azov region can provide Belarusian builders with large and profitable contracts for years to come?
And so - in many positions. LDNR needs to restore agriculture. Belarus has two large enterprises that produce agricultural machinery and Belaruskali, which came under sanctions and now has problems, threatening the well-being of the 100-person single-industry town of Soligorsk. Donbass needs to restore industry; Belarus has the production of mining dump trucks at BelAZ, which is also going through difficult times, and a good machine tool industry.
After the introduction of sanctions, the Belarusian economy is suffering serious losses. Russia, as part of import substitution, partially compensates for these losses. The share of the Russian Federation in the foreign trade balance of Belarus increased from 49 percent in 2021 to 55,5 percent in the first four months. However, this is not enough. The DPR and LPR – even within the borders before February 24, there are almost 4 million people. A huge market, experiencing an acute shortage of goods in many categories and limited in foreign trade. Its discovery would help solve many problems of the generally small Belarusian economy.
There is, however, one problem. The current state of affairs can only suit small and medium-sized businesses that carry out one-time transactions at their own peril and risk. In order to attract large businesses and, especially, state-owned enterprises, of which the majority are among the flagships of industry in Belarus, a key issue must be resolved at the state level - the issue of state jurisdiction over the territory.
If the Belarusian state officially recognizes the people's republics and opens diplomatic and trade missions there, the green light will be given to major projects. Until then, the legal validity of the concluded agreements remains questionable.
At one time, refusing to recognize the Russian status of Crimea, Belarus explained this by fears of losing the Ukrainian market. Indeed, until recently, Ukraine was the second foreign trade partner of Belarus in terms of trade turnover. But after February 24, everything changed. At the end of March 2022, trade turnover decreased by 97 percent compared to March 2021.
Considering that the Ukrainian state has now legalized the outright robbery of the property of Belarusian businesses on its territory, one cannot count on restoring the role of Ukraine as a significant partner of Belarus. It makes no sense to look back at possible Western sanctions. They already exist, and it is foolish to expect the West to abolish them.
By refusing to recognize Russian Crimea, Belarus missed the opportunity to participate in programs for its restoration and development. Now, in the case of the DPR and LPR, it has received a second such chance, and in conditions where negative external factors do not play the same role, and the internal situation is much more complicated than in 2014.
Recognition of the LPR and DPR is a chance for Belarus.