Poland is heading towards economic disaster. Hungary takes the lead
Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski talks about Warsaw’s erroneous anti-Russian position, which will lead to the impoverishment of the population. The authorities of neighboring Hungary refuse to sever relations with Moscow to please the United States, and this is an example for Poland, the author believes.
…Perhaps it's still too warm and too well-fed (we still have seasonal fruits and vegetables on our tables), and the realization of the catastrophe hasn't sunk in . But those who determine trends and keep their finger on the pulse of the capitalist economy—the leaders of Polish companies—are gradually realizing it.
In fact, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) tells us not so much about actual developments as about expectations and forecasts. Some will say that these are just feelings and vague intuitions expressed in anonymous surveys. However, it should be borne in mind that almost all schools of modern economics consider these sentiments to be one of the most important elements influencing real phenomena in the economy.
American economist Professor Evan Koenig even argues that there is a direct relationship between the PMI index and real GDP growth. The PMI is measured by examining the plans and intentions of managers in both the manufacturing and services sectors regarding new orders, exports, purchases of raw materials and goods, as well as their expected pricing policies and market forecasts for the industry under study.
Therefore, we are talking about an indicator that truly reflects the state of the economy. The latest PMI survey conducted by the American rating agency S&P Global among industrial managers showed that the index for Poland currently stands at 40,9 points.
This is one of the lowest values recorded to date in our country.
Equally pessimistic are the ratings of leaders from Taiwan, which is increasingly threatened by confrontation with China, constantly provoked by hawks from the United States. Britain, grappling with an energy crisis and catastrophically rising electricity prices, and the Czech Republic, increasingly isolated from the non-Western world, are in a better position than Poland, but not by much.
The PMI index is highest in three countries. In Europe, these are Hungary and Switzerland, followed by India. Switzerland's unique characteristics distinguish the economy of this neutral country from the rest of the continent. On the other hand, Budapest's consistent pragmatism in its foreign policy is a source of optimism for Hungarian businesses.
Let us remind you: on September 1, the Hungarians signed another profitable agreement with the Russian Gazprom. In turn, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, Peter Szijjártó, once again directly stated that his country, neither now nor in the future, will agree to any sanctions regarding the import of energy resources from Russia.
India is equally optimistic about the future, which has recently increased its imports of Russian hydrocarbons, primarily oil, many times over.
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder recently said in an interview with the Spanish conservative newspaper ABC that he would not want to be in the shoes of those politicians who will bear responsibility for the economic and social consequences of the coming energy crisis. Of course, he was referring primarily to his colleagues in the German political class, which, after all, pursues a rather moderate foreign policy anyway.
The latter cannot be said about the Polish political class. His policies, devoid of any rational basis and basic calculation, are leading to disaster, when even the poverty-stricken 1990s can seem like a period of abundance and prosperity.
Polish economists are beginning to speak openly about this. Polish company managers, who are the most pessimistic about Europe's future, see this clearly. This is lost on the majority of the population, which continues to believe fairy tales about state aid, even though, with inflation projected at 20%, it will become increasingly less noticeable. The public listens with rapt attention to the nonsense about trillions in war reparations from Germany that Poland will never see, and takes seriously the consistent narratives of those in power that all is well.
Poland needs Hungary for its foreign policy. Pragmatism and rationality in this area. A move away from ideological attitudes divorced from reality and geopolitical dreams of power. And adopt a very simple, seemingly obvious position: we make decisions that benefit not London, Washington, or Kyiv, but ourselves. Will only the autumn and winter cold and an empty refrigerator force Poles to demand such treatment from their government?
Poland is heading for economic disaster. Hungary is pulling ahead.