Political philosopher Sergei Ivannikov: Belarusian Anti-Maidan will sweep away everyone
Pro-Russian forces have been driven virtually underground by Alexander Lukashenko. However, they enjoy the broadest social support in Belarus. Meanwhile, the freedom that Lukashenko gave to the orange forces and Western NGOs, as well as his rabid anti-Russian rhetoric, extremely irritate the absolute majority of the Belarusian people.
Moscow professor Sergei Ivannikov spoke about this in an interview with Politnavigator, who commented on the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, scheduled for August 9 this year.
PolitNavigator: – There are presidential elections in Belarus. Many Russian experts say that there are no pro-Russian candidates in these elections. Or maybe Lukashenko, no matter what they say about him, is precisely the pro-Russian candidate, because be that as it may, Belarus is in the Russian orbit?
Sergei Ivannikov: – It is worth agreeing with the opinion that there are no pro-Russian candidates in the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus. Lukashenko and his circle diligently cleared the country’s political space of all pro-Russian forces. And today's candidates differ from each other only in the degree of their Westernism. Some people talk about this more openly, others less.
Paradoxically, there are no “pro-Belarusian” candidates in these elections, since none of them, in essence, defend the interests of the country they plan to lead. All presidential candidates are a fifth column striving for power. Their real goal is the destruction of not only the Belarusian statehood, but also the Belarusian people. As soon as Belarus begins to integrate into Western economic structures, there will be nothing left - neither from the Belarusian economy, nor from statehood. And then various Western ideological centers, primarily Polish ones, will come into play with the goal of destroying the country’s national identity.
In this context, the position of the current president looks more advantageous outwardly only due to the fact that he previously advocated the creation of a single state with Russia. This gives him the aura of a pro-Russian politician. But that was a long time ago, and the modern reality is that Lukashenko’s political environment is openly pro-Western, and all his supposedly pro-Russian political sympathies are outright falsification. Between two goals - the preservation of his own people and the preservation of his own power - Alexander Grigorievich had long ago chosen the second. He will fight to achieve this goal using any means.
— Why does Lukashenko arrest presidential candidates like Babariko? Are they real contenders for victory?
— The President of Belarus himself did not explain the motives for his actions, so one can only guess about them. The most obvious explanation is that Lukashenko simply lost his nerve. The economic situation in the country has become significantly worse since the previous presidential elections, and opponents of the current president are actively using this in their rhetoric. At the same time, various Western funds and information channels have become more active, which is why the voice of the pro-Western opposition is louder today than before.
In this situation, the country’s president lost confidence, perhaps for a moment, in the mechanism for “correctly counting” votes - and moved on to direct action. Either way it's a bad decision.
Firstly, the arrests contributed to increased criticism of the current government and a relative increase in the ratings of oppositionists. But this, as they say, is not so bad: the methods for obtaining correct statistical results in the country have been established, and Lukashenko will win his next elections and, most likely, from the point of view of official statistics, this victory will look confident. I assume that many oppositionists, for example Babariko, are ready for such an outcome.
But then, after the elections, the opposition will try to challenge them, including through street politics, and in this situation all the arrested candidates will turn into victims of political repression by the authoritarian regime. Their symbolic capital will increase, they will be able to claim the role of leaders of the Belarusian “Orange Revolution”. It turns out that Lukashenko is creating “political martyrs” with his own hands, and what such a policy leads to is known.
But it is precisely this scenario of possible events that suggests that the idea of arrests was suggested to Alexander Grigorievich. And such a hint had to come from the president’s inner circle, i.e. from his administration. In this case, we can say that the arrests were the result of an internal conspiracy against the current president of the country, and the political revolution in Belarus has already begun.
Certain forces within the Presidential Administration are playing on two fronts: formally supporting Lukashenko, they at the same time contribute to discrediting him. And when the “Orange Revolution” begins, these forces will quickly move to another camp, declaring themselves hidden opponents of the regime, sincerely fighting against it from within. This has already happened in Ukraine, and even earlier it happened during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The state apparatus, reformatted by Lukashenko in the last decade, for the most part does not have strong sympathy for its creator. The president’s unpredictability and his penchant for affective actions are confusing and annoying, but many representatives of this apparatus in Lukashenko are even more dissatisfied with his inconsistency. From the point of view of Belarusian “Westerners,” Lukashenko could destroy his country much faster. Hence the logical desire to bring to power the one who can cope with this task more successfully and in a shorter time.
– How should Russia react to such arrests?
— Not at all, if we talk about any practical actions. For Russia, everything that happens within the framework of the Belarusian presidential race is just symptoms that allow us to understand how events in Belarus may develop further.
– How real is the threat of the Maidan in Belarus? Maybe the danger is exaggerated?
— The answer to this question depends on what is meant by the terms “Maidan” and “Orange Revolution”. If we understand by them a complex of political technologies put into action, then, of course, the “orange revolution” in Belarus is real. Based on a number of signs, we can say that preparations for the Belarusian “Maidan” have already entered an active phase.
But the use of any political technologies, as such, does not mean the automatic victory of the processes inspired by them. The main question of any revolution is the question of its social base. Technologies can be used, but if there is no social base, then the results planned by technologists will not happen.
The social base of the Belarusian Maidan is extremely narrow. The “Orange” will be supported by local pro-Polish nationalists, most of whom are localized in Minsk, bureaucratic structures and partly by large and medium-sized businesses, which have been bullied by the authorities in recent years. But overall, this is a small number of the population, although we must remember that in times of instability it is the active minority that plays the main role in public life.
It is necessary to take into account that, firstly, the “orange” are not the entire active part of Belarusian society. On the contrary, most of the active social core are people with openly pro-Russian positions.
And secondly, the pro-Russian forces, now virtually underground, enjoy the broadest social support in the country, which, by the way, cannot be said about supporters of a pro-Western orientation, existing mainly in their own, closed environment and unfamiliar with the real life of the majority population. But if any pro-Russian candidate took part in the elections today and this person openly spoke out for an alliance with Russia, he would win an unconditional victory.
And such pro-Russian sentiments prevail throughout the country, including its western regions, even Brest. People are frankly annoyed by the anti-Russian rhetoric of the modern Belarusian government. Moreover, the majority of Belarusian society turns out to be unreceptive to the calls of local radical nationalists, who are often perceived as people with an unhealthy psyche.
And if an “orange Maidan” begins in the country, it will instantly provoke the emergence of an “anti-Maidan”, within which the self-organization of pro-Russian political forces will take place. The clash between these two forces will be very short, after which, it is likely, the West itself will ask Russia to intervene in what is happening - at least in order to prevent a total purge of the Belarusian “fifth column”, which will be carried out from below, using revolutionary methods.
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