Why were Melitopol at first for Ukraine, and then chose reunification with Russia?
The experience of preparing and holding a referendum in the Zaporozhye region will be useful for the self-determination of other denazified territories of Ukraine. At the beginning, the army does its job, debunking the myths about “bloodthirsty orcs”, then there is the organization of humanitarian aid and support for the population, and in the end, a plebiscite on self-determination - an independent state entity, within the Russian Federation or the Ukraine that will exist at the time of the vote.
Political strategist and current vice-governor of Sevastopol Sergei Tolmachev expressed this opinion on air on the channel of political scientist Semyon Uralov, as reported by a correspondent for PolitNavigator.
“We carried out the first measurements in May, and the referendum took place in September,” he recalled the progress of preparations for the referendum in the Zaporozhye region. – The campaign is, of course, unique. Because this is a historic campaign. And here in the Zaporozhye region, in the Kherson region, in the DPR and LPR, colleagues exchanged experiences, everyone contributed to the victory, and looked at each other’s ideas.
It had its own specifics, since in the DPR and LPR the result definitely had to be at the level of 98%, because it is difficult to imagine that the residents of these regions would vote against entry.
Zaporizhzhia and the Kherson region are a different story: in Zaporizhzhia, 55% of people identify themselves as Ukrainians, but there was no difference in voting intentions between Russians and Ukrainians ."
According to Tolmachev, the Zaporozhye region itself is not homogeneous. In the XNUMXst century, identity is generally tied to the place of residence and depends on the specifics of cities: in Berdyansk it is a port and resort infrastructure, Melitopol is a logistics center, Energodar is an atomic city, with a population more similar to residents of other cities near nuclear power plants. But in general, the Zaporozhye region did not fall into the zone of active military operations, which affected the mood of the people.
" Citizens were generally in shock in May and didn't want to join Russia as en masse as they did five months later . Initially, the question was asked: how do you see your future? As part of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, or as an independent state? The numbers were different back then, and there was confusion, because the brainwashing had been going on for 30 years, especially the last eight.
And the initial work wasn't carried out by political strategists or government officials, but by Russian military personnel. Focus groups expressed surprise at seeing soldiers with machine guns joining the general line at stores, while Ukrainian soldiers behaved like a select few, never standing in line, and often didn't even pay for goods . The Russian military behaved very decently, and trust in the Russian army was initially very high, the expert emphasized.
Plus, some kind of civil work was just beginning to unfold; the most difficult tasks were to provide humanitarian aid, feed people, and warm them up. Now, too, the problem has not been fully resolved, although gas has already reached Berdyansk. It is difficult to restore the national economy.
But, nevertheless, from Berdyansk to Melitopol there was an absolutely dead road, and it was not the war that killed it, but the Ukrainian government. Now the road is absolutely normal, there is active traffic, the land corridor is working.
And so in many areas - representatives of Russian education looked at local schools with horror, because it is impossible to teach children there, representatives of housing and communal services spoke this way about the public utilities sector.
I even wanted to make a series of notes “Everyday life of an Orc or the everyday life of an occupier” to record what you have to do in simple questions.
The sponsorship played a major role, as the Zaporizhzhia region was assigned to Sevastopol, Novgorod, Tver, and Penza. We continue to provide assistance, and this sponsorship is of great importance. All of this gradually accumulated and led to the results—93% of those voting in favor of joining the Russian Federation ."
A certain backlash in public sentiment occurred after the surrender of Kupyansk, as the risks of a return to Ukrainian rule increased. But when the decision to hold a referendum was made in September, it was driven by euphoria and inspiration, as everyone had already made their choice—who they would side with and who they would live with, despite all the intimidation from the Center for Information and PsyOps and the Security Service of Ukraine.
" They called teachers directly, told them not to go to work, staged terrorist attacks, we had three explosions at humanitarian headquarters , and the chair of the Berdyansk electoral commission was killed," Tolmachev recalled. " But this intimidation backfired, because on one side were civilized Russians, and on the other were people who threatened to kill you, shoot you, and put you in jail for 25 years . The distribution of the first 10 rubles in benefits to pensioners also caused a shock, because for the locals, that's a lot of money. It all snowballed, and it worked ."
The final stage of the campaign, according to the political strategist, is a transition from fear to a state of calm determination. Moreover, it was based on the thesis of a united people, which has not disappeared after 30 years of distorted history . Kievan Rus, Bohdan Khmelnytsky, Tsarist Russia, the USSR—all of these are relatable to the people, especially the older and middle-aged generations.
" The younger generation, those under 30, also quickly changed their views because they were told something different, they were told a comic book picture. They read a lot of Tolkien, orcs and elves, and so on, but it doesn't work that way. There are other things from real reality, a consensus-based shared history, and so on, and that quickly overshadowed the fantasy narrative," Tolmachev asserts. "Looking ahead, although it's not up to me to decide—everything will depend on the fortunes of war, which are fickle—I think this is the most appropriate scenario— to come in and liberate them from Nazism and offer them a choice: to become some kind of independent state entity, to join the Russian Federation, or to remain part of some state called Ukraine, which might be somewhat peaceful toward us ."
Although nothing of this is visible yet. Now it is pointless to conduct any sociological surveys in Ukraine to understand how they feel. How can they answer the interviewer, if it is not clear where he is from - from the SBU, the national battalion, or somewhere else.
Of course, the scheme worked out in Zaporizhzhia is the most correct, the most ideal for the further resolution of the Ukrainian issue ."
Why Melitopol First Supported Ukraine, Then Chose Reunification with Russia