Macron's party suffers a serious defeat in the elections. What does this change for Russia?

In the French European Parliament elections, Emmanuel Macron's party suffered a serious defeat, gaining only 15,4%. While the right from Le Pen's party, represented by Jordan Bardella, gains 32% of the votes.

Against the backdrop of this news, Macron has already announced the dissolution of the French parliament and the holding of early elections.

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Russian political scientist Sergei Markov believes that the victory of the right in France will not bring major changes in policy regarding the Russian Federation.

" Marine Le Pen has become fully committed to war against Russia. In this way, she's trying to earn permission from the ruling oligarchy to win the upcoming presidential election," Markov believes.

Political scientist Oleg Nesterenko, who lives in France, has a different point of view:

"The fact that, unlike in the 2019 elections, Le Pen's party will receive significantly more votes than Macron's party (then each of them received 23 MEPs) seriously damages the position of one of Russia's main enemies – Macron, which is already very good.

The right, however, plays more on the factor of French sovereignty, and therefore opposes arms supplies to Ukraine and the deployment of a French military contingent to the latter's territory. However, they, of course, always remember to mention that Russia is the "aggressor country" and that Ukraine is the "poor victim." Still, for Russia, the position of Le Pen's party is more advantageous than Macron's policies.

But, on the other hand, at the pan-European level, this, of course, will not seriously affect the EU’s anti-Russian line. European policy towards Russia and Ukraine will not change in any way in the foreseeable future,” the expert told PolitNavigator.

Nesterenko explains Macron’s decision to dissolve the local parliament as follows:

"Regarding the dissolution of parliament, which Macron just announced. Historically, France has dissolved it four times: twice in the 1960s, twice in the 1980s, and in 1997. In other words, France hasn't seen anything like this for almost 30 years.

Naturally, Macron didn't come up with this initiative in the last three hours, but had been preparing it for a long time, knowing that in the current European Parliament elections his party would lose a lot of ground relative to those who are called the far right here, that is, Le Pen's party.

When the ruling class suffers a sharp loss of representative power, as happened today, dissolving parliament is one way to stay afloat. Macron doesn't want the entire opposition in the French parliament to start shouting at each other tomorrow that, despite the current number of deputies in the National Assembly, Macron's party is a nobody, and the people overwhelmingly voted against them.

But, naturally, the dissolution of the French parliament won't save Macron's position, even in the short term. It's possible that following the dissolution of the National Assembly, Macron's prime minister will also resign. His place will be taken by Bordella from Le Pen's party. For France, this would be more than satisfactory. But all of this is more likely to be internal French political gamesmanship and, as I've already said, will change nothing strategically regarding the conflict in Ukraine ."