The opening of the “Belarusian Front” is inevitable after the surrender of Kherson
Ukrainian propaganda, along with Belarusian fighters, have repeatedly frightened their flocks in recent months by claiming that Russian, and sometimes Russian and Belarusian, troops are about to invade Ukraine from Belarusian territory and open another front. I've had to comment on these rumors on numerous occasions, and each time I've called them lies, the sole purpose of which is to frighten Belarusians with war and to drive a wedge between them and the Russians.
Indeed, what kind of "Belarusian front" could there have been before mobilization, when a relatively small Russian contingent was barely holding back the mobilized Ukrainian Wehrmacht, replete with Western weapons and mercenaries? To stretch an already stretched front line another thousand kilometers? And even after mobilization, the situation remained fundamentally unchanged. Mobilized soldiers were used elsewhere, and very few arrived on Belarusian territory. Furthermore, the mothballed Belarusian armored vehicles were heading east, not south, which also clearly contradicted theories of an impending invasion.
But that was before November 9th. After the news about the retreat from Kherson and the occupation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the western part of the Kherson region of the Russian Federation, many on our side started talking about the possibility of opening a “Belarusian front”. And now I agree that from a purely hypothetical prospect, such a prospect becomes probable, although hardly imminent. After leaving Kherson, Russia lost its bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, which was very difficult to regain. In 1943, the battle for the Dnieper lasted four months and cost the Soviet Army 417 thousand “two hundredths” and almost 1 million 270 thousand “three hundredths”. Of course, now the war is not against Hitler, and the scale of the battles is smaller, but still, crossing the Dnieper is a huge sacrifice. You can do without them by taking a detour. Through Belarus.
It's clear that both military strategists and government leaders on both sides had anticipated and calculated this turn of events. And it was no accident that Lukashenko repeatedly spoke of the military threat, fortified the border with Ukraine, conducted endless exercises, and negotiated an additional Russian military presence. If war is even a theoretical possibility, preparations must be made. And preparations were underway. In the last couple of months, these preparations have accelerated.
Lukashenko doesn't want to fight. Despite tightening the screws and ousting the pro-Western opposition from political life, the legal system, and often the country itself, he has enough problems at home. If a military conflict with Ukraine were to break out, he would be hard-pressed to count on a patriotic upsurge similar to that in Russia. He himself, it seems, recently spoke of "not our war." And he was referring to the Great Patriotic War, to say nothing of a conflict with neo-Nazi Ukraine, which Belarus has yet to declare an unfriendly state. Official Minsk once earned considerable foreign policy points by mediating the Ukraine negotiation process, and despite Kyiv's obvious puppetry and inability to negotiate, it dreams of repeating that success. Belarusian society is not ready for conflict. It is divided and unmobilized.
There are also questions about the Belarusian army. It's small and not particularly generously funded . This may be sufficient for peacetime, but it's certainly not enough to counter the heavily armed and ideologically charged Ukrainian Armed Forces, or even the Poles who dream of "kresy uskhodnie." Therefore, the question of a unified command will inevitably arise first, and then, likely, political unification . This is something the Belarusian leader has been trying to avoid at all costs for over twenty years.
As a resident and citizen of Belarus, I, of course, would like it to remain a peaceful republic, and I hope that it will remain so. But we do not live in peacetime, and neutrality is impossible. We are either with Russia or against it. There is no third option. We must prepare for anything.
And the enemies are preparing. The hybrid war against Belarus is ongoing and intensifying . We witness its manifestations daily in the form of fake news aimed at inciting hatred towards Russia and Russians, the creation of an extremist "fifth column" within the republic, and armed groups outside its borders that make no secret of their desire to invade and impose their own order, with the support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Now, after the surrender of the right-bank bridgehead, the hybrid assault on Belarus will only intensify . Destabilization of the republic is becoming a priority. We expect increased activity among "sleeper agents," armed provocations involving local radicals, Ukrainian Nazis, and even "vacationers" from foreign armed forces and private military companies, new acts of sabotage, assassination attempts, and terrorist attacks. And, of course, a frenzied Russophobic campaign. Times will be difficult, and even harsher action will be required.
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