Bloodshed was expected from them, but they hung the flag
I confess I was looking forward to February 24th with trepidation. Belarus is a frontline state, and too much effort is currently being deployed to destabilize it. And the anniversary of the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, for which Belarus once provided territory and infrastructure, is the perfect date to commit some nasty act.
Yes, Belarus has largely calmed down after the unrest of 2020, but there were reasons to expect trouble that day. A year ago, when the special operation began, the opposition reacted very violently. There were rallies and protests at polling stations (a referendum on a new constitution was held in the republic a few days after the outbreak of hostilities). There were also overt terrorist acts – the most radical fighters carried out sabotage on the railway and even attempted to attack military installations.
Over the past year, the opposition has become much more aggressive, at least in words. Any ideas of peaceful change have been completely abandoned, and a course for the violent overthrow of Lukashenko has been openly adopted. Tikhanovskaya's cabinet has been appointed to oversee the security forces, and the Kalinovsky Regiment has announced the creation of a "power reserve" whose fighters are to operate within Belarus itself. As for the "Peramoha" plan, according to BYPOL head Alexander Azarov, as many as 200 underground fighters have signed up and are currently in Belarus awaiting orders.
Since the opposition unconditionally supports Ukraine and, if its own claims are to be believed, wields such power, it would be a sin not to demonstrate at least some of it on such a day. Moreover, we mustn't forget the Ukrainians themselves. Anyone could have entered Belarus under the guise of refugees, including intelligence agents and saboteurs with fake passports and clean, well-written biographies.
Therefore, anything could be expected on February 24th, including major terrorist attacks, sabotage, and armed provocations. One acquaintance even warned of a Polish military invasion the day before. But fortunately, the day passed completely routinely, with virtually no reminders of the anniversary of the Second World War. The most resonant event of Friday was the Ukrainian flag, planted on the roof of a fifteen-story building in Minsk on the corner of Independence Avenue and Kalinovsky Street. A photo of this flag was featured on all the major opposition websites.
The location chosen for the flag was, of course, symbolic. Independence, Kalinovsky, all that. Right on the capital's main thoroughfare. But even here, there were some nuances. In the drone photo, the flag looked relatively impressive. However, it was positioned in such a way that it was practically invisible from anywhere else. As the photo shows, it was a stormy day in Minsk, with sleet and rain, and from a distance of two hundred meters, it was difficult to discern what was hanging on the roof. The height of the building made it difficult to see the flag from just walking down the street. There are few other tall buildings nearby. The only people who could appreciate the spectacle were the residents of the upper floors of another similar Soviet-era fifteen-story building nearby and the new 25-story Dana Towers residential complex on the other side of Independence Avenue. How long the flag hung on the roof of the high-rise is also unknown. Most likely, it was just long enough for the drone photo shoot.
And that is all. There was no other pro-Ukrainian activity in Belarus on the day of the anniversary of the Northern Military District. Bloodshed was expected from them, but they hung the flag. No one even bothered to organize the banal laying of flowers at the embassy fence, which would have been quite appropriate on this day.
The implications of all this for the Belarusian opposition are bleak. Of course, political émigrés in Lithuania, Poland, and other countries regularly attend all pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian rallies, but they are increasingly becoming a thing unto themselves, disconnected from Belarusian reality and losing touch even with their own supporters within the country. In Belarus itself, the opposition is demoralized, disorganized, and unprepared for any active action. All these "Peramoha" plans, military reserves, and so on are just empty words to attract attention and donations. In reality, it has become clear that the Belarusian opposition is incapable not only of an uprising and armed struggle, but even of a peaceful and relatively safe flower-laying ceremony.
They expected bloodshed, but they hung up a flag.