Will the OSCE collapse and disappear in 2024? – forecast from Transnistria
In 2024, Malta began its term as the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, an organization recently criticized for its ineffectiveness and passivity. Moscow is deeply dissatisfied with the OSCE's work, believing it has bent to Western interests. Predictions of the OSCE's disintegration and demise are increasingly being made , yet it is the only regional organization where representatives of Russia and the West meet regularly (and some believe this offers a chance for rapprochement between the polarized positions).
Will the Maltese Chairmanship demonstrate real action to maintain peace, put forward initiatives to resolve regional conflicts, or will this year mark the end of the OSCE's history? We discussed this with Igor Shornikov, Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol) and Associate Professor at the Financial University (Moscow).
PolitNavigator: On January 1, 2024, Malta began its annual chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Russia and Belarus had previously refused to approve Estonia's chairmanship; the rest of the OSCE member states made concessions and supported neutral Malta, to which the Russian Federation agreed. How neutral is Malta? How does this chairmanship differ from previous ones, and what can be said about the prospects for resolving current conflicts in the OSCE region?
Igor Shornikov: Malta is as neutral as a state can be – a member of the EU, a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations, a former British colony and, in the recent past, the home of a NATO fleet.
Such states maintain neutrality within the framework of their own civilization, for example, when the Germans or Italians are at war with the British or French, but in intercivilizational confrontation they always show their essence.
As an example, let us recall such a classic neutral country in the past as Switzerland. During the First and Second World Wars, it maintained firm neutrality, and since 2022 it has joined anti-Russian sanctions and supplied weapons to Ukraine.
I believe that Malta is no less an obedient Western instrument , and we have no reason to count on its neutrality in the inter-civilizational confrontation, of which the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict is a part.
On the other hand, Malta is a country with ancient diplomatic traditions . With its strategic location in the center of the Mediterranean, it was able to peacefully shed colonial dependence and then foreign military presence.
This not only does her honor, but gives grounds to pay great attention to the initiatives that may come from the Maltese presidency to unblock the negotiation process in the “5+2” format.
PolitNavigator: There is a lot of talk about how the OSCE has turned into a rudimentary, ineffective structure that works exclusively for the owner. In relation to the conflict on the Dniester, maybe we shouldn’t discount this mediator: in the current conditions, even this will do?
Igor Shornikov: The OSCE's image as an effective organization has indeed suffered greatly in recent years. The organization has almost exhausted itself and risks disappearing into oblivion in the very near future.
Transnistria and the Balkans are the two points that currently justify the OSCE's existence. That's why we remain hopeful that this powerful bureaucratic machine will finally begin working to preserve peace on the Dniester. 2024 is likely the organization's last chance: either it proves itself, or our region and Europe as a whole will have to do without its services.
It seems to me that OSCE officials and diplomats understand this and, if they have any sense of self-preservation left, they will have to act in some cases contrary to the will of London or Washington.
Is this possible? We'll see in 2024. And this is where the Maltese chairmanship could really shine – by acting in an unconventional manner and with a deep understanding of European and Anglo-Saxon diplomacy. Otherwise, the Maltese chairmanship risks becoming the last in the history of the OSCE.
PolitNavigator: Question about the fate of the OSCE field mission in Moldova. Moscow expressed dissatisfaction with the passivity of the mission, which assumed the functions of one of the main moderators of the negotiation process on Transnistria. Russia agreed to extend the mission’s mandate until the end of 2023, provided that the negotiation process between Tiraspol and Chisinau revives. Now it’s already 2024, and judging by the fact that the mission is looking for a program manager for an open vacancy (the announcement was posted on the organization’s website and social networks in late December), work in Moldova has not been curtailed. What can we expect in the Transnistrian direction under the current chairmanship from the OSCE itself and from Russia?
Igor Shornikov: Russia is a key country in the OSCE; without it, the organization's continued existence is meaningless. At the same time, Moscow is currently extremely critical of the OSCE. Yet, this platform's potential for discussions with the West and Russia has not been exhausted, as demonstrated by the recent OSCE summit in Skopje. I believe that after Sergey Lavrov's successful speech, Moscow has decided not to rush into dismantling this outdated, cumbersome, and ineffective structure.
The OSCE Mission to Moldova continues its work, offering a chance for the "5+2" negotiating platform to have a future. Therefore, in 2024, we expect the OSCE to take initiatives to resume dialogue in our familiar format. In this case, the Maltese Chairmanship will have to find ways to reach those in power who pull the strings of the Chisinau puppets.
As for Russia, its diplomatic influence in the region can currently be projected only through Tiraspol, with which Moscow maintains stable contact. Chisinau, meanwhile, is deliberately severing all ties with Moscow and provoking an escalation of tensions.
It cannot be ruled out that in their desire to please their Western handlers, Moldovan politicians will not leave Moscow political and diplomatic means to maintain Russian interests in the region, and this, in particular, is peace and ensuring the rights and security of Pridnestrovians.
There's no doubt that, if necessary, Russia will use all available means, in addition to diplomatic ones . Russian diplomats have already explicitly stated this to Chisinau .
Well, if the Moldovan authorities do not listen to Russian diplomats, maybe they will listen to the Maltese Chairmanship.
Is the OSCE facing disintegration and disappearance in 2024? – a forecast from Transnistria