Aggravation in Karabakh: What will Russia do?
A debate about whether Russia should support its CSTO ally Armenia in the armed conflict with Azerbaijan has unfolded online, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Vadim Manukyan, an expert at the Media Commission of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, believes that Russia’s intervention will lead to the same result as “forcing peace” in Georgia after the shelling of South Ossetia in 2008.
“If the hotheads don’t come to their senses, then the time will come for a new “enforcement of peace” from Russia and now Aliyev will have to chew his tie, and Erdogan will get the tomatoes. And I don’t advise Pashinyan to wag – it will end badly,” Manukyan wrote in his telegram channel.
Journalist Dmitry Smirnov also believes that the latest events will be a lesson for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in the wake of the Maidan, and tried to skimp on allied obligations.
“What is happening in Belarus and in Armenia shows the same thing - you can flirt with anyone as much as you like, but when the pressure comes, except for Russia, from which you pointedly turned away, you will have no other ally,” Smirnov wrote.
Odessa journalist Yuri Tkachev believes that Russia is obliged to protect its ally in order to preserve unity in the post-Soviet space.
“It's a matter of principle. On the question of whether someone can punch Russia's official ally in the face without ending up in big trouble. And now Russia, whether it wants it or not, will give an answer to this question: is it the center of some kind of unification of states with itself at the head or not? And if it turns out that it is not, then this will be a signal to all “minority allies,” from Belarus to South Ossetia and Transnistria, that it is better for them to look for another defender,” Tkachev wrote.
However, political scientist Marat Bashirov doubts that Russia will dare to provide military support to Armenia.
“It becomes clear that Armenia cannot resist in Karabakh without Russian support. Armenia is asking for more weapons from Russia. And it’s not a fact that Moscow will decide to do this now. Therefore, all efforts are aimed at diplomatic contacts,” Bashirov wrote.
Deputy editor of the international department of Komsomolskaya Pravda, Edward Chesnakov, believes that Russia currently cannot intervene in the conflict in the Caucasus according to the “Crimean scenario”, since it is “nervously paralyzed by Novichok, Donbass, Syria, Belarus and the economic recession.”
“The solution is to create conditions under which the escalation of the conflict will have critical consequences for both sides. For example, supply Armenia with defensive weapons: anti-tank missile systems, MANPADS, “Solntsepok”. That is, to create such a balance of power around Karabakh that an offensive by either side would lead to unacceptable losses,” Chesnakov suggests.
Karabakh Escalation: What Will Russia Do?